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Thursday, February 16, 2006

Warren Buffett Triples Lexmark, Sold Shaw Communications, Reveals Holdings in Wells Fargo

Warren Buffett's Investment Company, Berkshire Hathaway, tripled its holdings in Lexmark International (LXK) to 3 million shares during the fourth quarter of 2005, according to the 13F filings Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B). Berkshire also added slightly to its holdings in First Data Corp. (FDC), its current position in First Data Corp is 10 million shares. Compared with the previous quarters, Berkshire made very minor stock purchases in the last quarter. In the previous quarters, Warren Buffett took large positions in Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and Wal-Mart (WMT).

Warren Buffett eliminated his holdings in Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR) during past quarter, after reducing his positions in Shaw Communications Inc. previously. He also reduced his positions in Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM), Gap Inc. (GPS) and Sealed Air Corp. (SEE). His current holdings in Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM) is 3,948,800 shares, which is a 21% reduction from the previous quarter; his current holdings in Gap Inc. is 10 million shares, which is a 35% decrease from the previous quarter; and that in Sealed Air Corp is 955,600 shares. Currently each of these 3 positions weigh less than 0.5% of in Berkshire's equity holdings.

Warren Buffett also revealed his holdings in Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) today, after disclosing his holdings in H. R. Block (HRB) and Torchmark Corp. (TMK) in January. During the third quarter of 2005 Buffett kept his holdings in these companies confidential. As revealed by the amended filings of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett added his positions in Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) by about 50%. Currently Berkshire holds 85 million shares of Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo is now the 4 th largest equity holding of Berkshire Hathaway, behind Coca-Cola Co. (KO), American Express Co. (AXP) and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG).

Courtesy: GuruFocus.com
Click for full article

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL) - topped earnings estimates for 12 quarters - issued 2006 earnings guidance above analyst estimates

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL) has topped the consensus earnings estimate for 12 quarters running. The company recently issued its full-year 2006 earnings per share guidance above analyst estimates. LLL has increased revenues and grown profits for the past seven years. Earnings per share have grown 31.0% over the past five years. The company currently yields 0.62%.

Full Analysis

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. is a supplier of products used in a substantial number of aerospace and defense platforms. The company is a merchant supplier of sophisticated secure communication systems and specialized communication products.

LLL has a strong history of exceeding analyst earnings estimates, having done so for an impressive 12 quarters in a row. The company has met or topped estimates in 14 consecutive quarters—meeting only once. LLL most recently topped the consensus estimate in the fourth quarter of 2005 by 2.5% and easily surpassed its prior year's EPS by 19.2%. Earnings per share have grown 31.0% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow 12.5% over the next 3-5 years.

On Jan 31, 2006, L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. issued its full-year 2006 earnings per share guidance above analyst estimates. The company expects earnings of between $4.80 and $4.95 per share. Sales are expected to be in excess of $12 billion. The revised outlook was prompted by LLL's performance in the fourth quarter of 2005. The company reported profits of $151.4 million, versus a prior-year profit of $119.3 million. Revenues soared to $2.9 billion from $1.9 billion a year ago. L-3's growth was attributed to a higher demand for its intelligence and surveillance systems, coupled with recently acquired businesses.

LLL has increased revenues and grown profits for the past seven years. For the full year of 2005, consolidated revenues were up 36.9%, while profits jumped 33.2%.

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. should be poised for substantial growth both through internal operations as well as through acquisitions. The company's numerous acquisitions over the past two years continue to add to top-line growth—highlighted by its acquisition of The Titan Corporation on July 29, 2005. Furthermore, LLL plans to continue to grow its international defense business.

LLL has been more profitable than its peers. The company has a ROE of 12%, compared to 9% for the industry. On Oct 11, 2005, The Board of Directors at L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.62%.

LLL is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 21.6% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

#1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions.
Click for full article

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) - company issued earnings per share guidance above analyst's estimates

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, recently reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2005 results. The company also issued earnings per share guidance above analyst's estimates for the first quarter and full year of 2006. EPS are forecasted to grow 20.0% over the next 3-5 years. MLM has a current dividend yield of 1.0%.

Full Analysis

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a producer of aggregates for the construction industry, including highways, infrastructure, commercial and residential. The company also manufactures and markets magnesia-based products. MLM operates in two segments, aggregates and specialty products.

MLM has exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for the past four quarters by an average margin of 18.2%. Earnings per share have grown 11.5% over the past five years. Going forward, they are forecasted to grow by a larger magnitude—20.0% over the next 3-5 years.

On Feb 9, 2006, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. posted earnings per share of $1.04, which topped the Street by 18.2% and surged past the prior year's period by 40.5%. The company cited that cost-cutting efforts offset high energy prices enabling it to report strong fourth-quarter financial results. Profits increased to $47.8 million, compared to $37.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2004. Revenues rose 15.5% to $503.8 million from $436.1 million last year. The growth in magnesia specialties helped fuel the jump in revenues. For the full year, profits and revenues increased 49.2% and 15.6%, respectively, when compared to 2004.

MLM responded to its strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2005 results by issuing first-quarter and full-year 2006 earnings per share guidance above analysts' estimates. The company now expects EPS for 2006 to be between $4.90 and $5.25. For the first quarter of 2006, MLM expects earnings of between 30 cents and 45 cents per share.

Analysts' estimates have doubled for the first quarter of 2006 over the past 30 days. The consensus estimate now stands at 44 cents. Analysts' forecasts for full-year 2006 profits have jumped 15.0% over the same time period.

MLM expects aggregates pricing to rise 9% to 11% in 2006. The company cited continued heavy demand, rising transportation costs and supply constraints as the reasons behind the increase. Demand for aggregates products is expected to increase 2% to 4%. The specialty products segment is expected to show continued improvement in 2006 as well.

The company's return on equity is in line with the industry average-16%. The stock trades at a valuation of 23.4x trailing 12-month earnings and at 18.1x its current fiscal year estimated earnings. MLM bought back 2,658,000 shares of common stock during the past year. Investors requiring a stream of cash flow from their investment in Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. have enjoyed a current dividend yield of 1.0% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.6%.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

#1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions.
Click for full article

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

12 February issue of VitalStocks - Marriott International (MAR) - Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) - AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) - U.S. Bancorp (USB)

VitalStocks.com Professional Investing Newsletter Digest

"Unbiased Advice from America's Top Investing Newsletters"

Sunday, February 12th, 2006
Volume 6, Issue 6

In This Issue:

1) Current Market Metrics - Mutual Fund Flows
2) Viewing the Market
A) Take-home pay of all Americans paying taxes surged 9.5% in 2005
B) Growing sentiment on Wall Street that an increase in inflation is almost inevitable this year
3) Feature Stock #1 - Marriott International (MAR)
4) Feature Stock #2 - Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)
5) Additional Stocks - Worth a Further Look
A) AstraZeneca PLC -ADR (AZN-NYSE)
B) U.S. Bancorp (USB)
6) About VitalStocks.com
7) DISCLAIMER: Use of this newsletter means that you agree.

Note to Readers:

Our daily content blog is up and running. We will regularly post new content from our partners. Need to mill around for some professional stock ideas? This is the place. Visit regularly and help keep this vital resource available to all readers.

Thank you for your continued readership of this newsletter. We are going to possibly make a few changes in the links available for each stock as well as some other tweaks that might be appropriate. If you have ANY comments or ideas, please click here to let us know.

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1) Current Market Metrics:

- NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Investors added a net $3.9 billion to U.S.-based stock mutual funds in the week ended Feb. 8, more than the $2.9 billion added in the prior week, TrimTabs Investment Research estimated on Thursday. Full Story/Source

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Independent Data on Fund Flows
Data As Of: 8 February 2006

- Excluding ETF activity, Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $4.219 billion in the week ended February 8, with $2.697 billion (64%) going to Non-domestic funds;

Source: http://www.amgdata.com/

2) Viewing the Market: Financial analysts / journalists comment on the current stock market and future direction.

2A) Take-home pay of all Americans paying taxes surged 9.5% in 2005

SANTA ROSA, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 01/19/2006 -- TrimTabs Investment Research reports that the take-home pay of all Americans paying taxes surged 9.5% in 2005 based on data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. "A staggering $486.5 billion was added to the U.S. economy as take-home pay soared from $5.106 trillion in 2004 to $5.593 trillion in 2005," said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research. "Moreover, growth in take-home pay is accelerating over year-end and the beginning of 2006. Our indicators are not showing any sign of the economic slowdown for which many on Wall Street are bracing."

See Figure 1: http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200601/240236_FigureOne.jpg

Take-home pay of all taxpayers jumped a staggering $486.5 billion, or 9.5%, going from $5.106 trillion in 2004 to $5.593 trillion in 2005. Sources: TrimTabs Investment Research and U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Article Continued Below...

==============================================

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While TrimTabs estimates that $47 million has flowed out of U.S. equity mutual funds so far in January, the Federal Reserve's latest H.6 release reports that more than $57 billion poured into savings deposits, small-denomination certificates of deposit, and retail money market funds from the end of November 2005 through January 2, 2006. "All of the excess take-home pay Americans are generating could provide ample fuel to sustain a January rally when more of it flows into U.S. equities," noted Schnapp. "Historically, U.S. stock prices have tended to rise when growth in take-home pay is strong."

See Figure 2: http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200601/MOD-240237_FigureTwo.jpg

Comparing take-home pay to the S&P 500, TrimTabs notes upward momentum. Sources: TrimTabs Investment Research and U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Madeline Schnapp is editor of TrimTabs Weekly Personal Income and TrimTabs Monthly Employment Analysis. TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity, including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990.TrimTabs liquidity research is a unique macro timing tool to predict the direction of the market.

Source: Trim Tabs Press Release

2B) Growing sentiment on Wall Street that an increase in inflation is almost inevitable this year

Zacks' FEATURED EXPERT: Don Dion
Published 7 February 06

Don Dion, editor of The Fidelity Independent Adviser Sector Momentum Tracker newsletter, says there is growing sentiment on Wall Street that an increase in inflation is almost inevitable this year. Discover how that impacted the beginning of February. Then find out what this expert has to say about oil prices. Afterward, read his profile of this week’s featured mutual fund.

Don’s Outlook from February 6

Hints of inflation to come, along with rising oil prices, sent stocks down sharply at the end of last week, just as they had finally begun to rise on Wednesday. The big culprit seems to be the inflation fears, and the effect that signs of increased inflation might have on interest rates. By the end of the week, the major indexes were up only slightly for the year.

The week started with everyone waiting to see what would happen at Alan Greenspan's last meeting as Fed chair. As expected, the Fed raised interest rates another quarter point and left open the possibility of further rate hikes. No surprise there. But then on Thursday, a pair of reports came in showing a drop in fourth quarter productivity and an increase in wages (i.e. labor costs). On Friday, a jobs report that came in lower than expected suggested a tightening labor market.

Investors and analysts interpreted these numbers as an indication of inflation on the horizon. And there is growing sentiment on Wall Street that an increase in inflation is almost inevitable this year. Of course, inflation could cause the Fed to continue upping the ante on interest rates. Therefore, investors whose conventional wisdom was that we were in for one or two interest rate increases by the Fed in early 2006 are changing their tune. Now people are saying there may be one or two more after the January increase.

Now this might not seem like a groundbreaking change of opinion to most people, but for those on Wall Street it was enough to take the wind right out of the sails of those hoping for February to begin on an uptick. And if those inflation fears deepen, stocks could become quite volatile. Don Dion and his team will keep an eye on that sentiment. Meanwhile, for those who like to confuse coincidence with factual information, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the last four times the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 produced an average return of 28 percent each year.

The other factor weighing on stocks right now is oil prices. With the political situation tensing in Iran, oil prices headed back up last week after a brief retreat. As crude futures head back up toward $70 per barrel, or above it, stocks will have a tougher time staging a serious rally, with the exception of energy stocks.

Courtesy: Zacks

==============================================

3) Feature Stock #1 – Marriott International (MAR)

Originally Published 9 February 2006

Marriott International (MAR) reaffirms our positive outlook for lodging stocks in 2006. The company reported solid financial results for the fourth quarter of 2005 and wrapped up earnings reports by the three largest public hotel companies for 2005. All in all, adjusted EBITDA growth in 2005 ranged from 12% at Hilton Hotels (HLT) to 15% at both Marriott and Starwood Hotels and Resorts (HOT) on revenue per available room (REVPAR) growth of 10% to 12% in North America. We expect more of the same in 2006, as the lodging companies benefit from strong demand for hotel rooms, solid growth in their hotel portfolios, and the strength of their timeshare businesses. This should lead to another 8% to 10% increase in REVPAR in 2006 and EBITDA margin expansion in the 100 to 200 basis point range. Business and group booking demand remains solid, which, coupled with limited supply growth, bodes well for properties located in major urban markets.

Despite the favorable operating environment, we maintain our Hold rating for Marriott given uncertainty surrounding its synthetic fuel business. We note that the synthetic fuel business was shut down in January and could be a drag on overall profitability in 2006, not to mention the unfavorable impact the shut down will have on the company's tax rate. Although we are likely to increase our earnings estimate for the first quarter, our outlook for the remainder of the year is unchanged.

We reaffirm our Buy ratings for Hilton and Starwood, which both have above average exposure in markets where REVPAR growth has been greatest, and will continue to benefit from asset dispositions and recent favorable acquisition activity (Le Meridian by Starwood and the pending purchase of Hilton International by Hilton) in 2006.

Full Story: http://www.zacks.com/blog/post_info.html?g=6Business

Description:

Marriott International, Inc. is a leading worldwide hospitality company. Its heritage can be traced to a small root beer stand opened in Washington, D.C. in 1927 by J. Willard and Alice S. Marriott. Today it has nearly 2,600 lodging properties in the United States and 65 other countries and territories.

Marriott International operates and franchises hotels under the Marriott, JW Marriott, Renaissance, Bulgari, The Ritz-Carlton, Courtyard, Residence Inn, SpringHill Suites, TownePlace Suites, and Fairfield Inn brand names; develops and operates vacation ownership resorts under the Marriott Vacation Club International, Horizons, The Ritz-Carlton Club and Marriott Grand Residence Club brands; operates Marriott Executive Apartments; provides furnished corporate housing through its Marriott ExecuStay division; and operates conference centers. Marriott is also in the synthetic fuel business. The company is headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is ranked as the lodging industry's most admired company and one of the best places to work for by Fortune magazine. In fiscal year 2004, Marriott International reported sales from continuing operations of $10 billion, and the company had approximately 133,000 employees at year-end 2004.

Source: http://ir.shareholder.com/mar/default.cfm?WT_Ref=mi_left

VitalStocks.com Research Summary:

Price / Cash Flow Ratio is only 43.8% of the Industry Average

Forward Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) is only approx. 1.83

Debt / Equity Ratio is 54.4% of the Industry Average

Net Profit Margin is 196.8% of the Industry Average

Return on Equity is 209.4% of the Industry Average

Forward P/E Ratio is 29; Industry is -20.41

Further Metrics / Research:

Yahoo News Search:

http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news?p=marriott+nyse&ei=UTF-8&fr=moreblog&fl=0&x=wrt

Blog Search:

http://blog.news.search.yahoo.com/blog/search?p=marriott+nyse&ei=UTF-8&fl=0&x=wrt&fr=moreblog

MSN Price Target:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/srwtarget.asp?Symbol=mar

Short Interest:

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=mar

Analyst Information:

http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/analyst_summary.asp?symbol=mind&selected=mar

Insider Transactions:

http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=insider&t=mar

Stock Chart:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=mar,uu[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUf!Lg]&pref=G

Zacks News and Commentary:

http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=news&t=mar

==============================================

4) Feature Stock #2 – Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)

Originally Published 9 February 2006

#1 Ranked Stocks Highlight

Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) a Zacks #1 Rank stock, appears to be breaking out to the upside from a long-term trading range propelled by stronger earnings and analysts' positive revisions for the FY 2006.

Full Analysis Whirlpool Corporation manufactures and markets a full line of major appliances and related products, primarily for home use. The company's principal products are home laundry appliances, home refrigerators and freezers, home cooking appliances, home dishwashers, room air-conditioning equipment and mixers and other small household appliances. The company also produces hermetic compressors and plastic components, primarily for the home appliance and electronics industries.

When WHR reported earnings for the Dec 2005 quarter on Feb 2 it came as no surprise to Zacks customers that they exceeded analysts' estimates. After all, WHR has exceeded expectations in nine of the last 10 quarters. The company announced earnings of $1.83 for the quarter, up 27.1% from the same quarter last year. In addition, the company’s earnings were a positive 9.6% above the consensus estimates. Sales and income were up 23.3% and 46.5%, respectively, from the same period last year.

The market action of WHR stock was as you might expect. The stock gapped open after the report, took out old 52-week highs and closed 7.3% higher on volume more than four times normal. In the four trading sessions since that time WHR has managed to consolidate the gains of Feb 2. The opening gap remains unfilled and the stock continues to look very healthy near its new 52-week high.

What makes this action particularly interesting is that WHR is breaking out to the upside from a long trading range, the upper boundary of which was set back on Aug 8, 2005. Typically stocks spend a long time in trading ranges because the fundamentals of the company remain fully discounted. The breakout into new high ground is indicative that the bullish case for this stock now has the upper hand. Fundamentally, analysts agree, as all of the analysts who have updated their FY 2006 estimates have raised them.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Source: http://www.zacks.com/rank/index.php?id=2199

==============================================

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==============================================

Business Description:

Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE:WHR) is a global manufacturer and marketer of major home appliances. The company has principal manufacturing operations and marketing activities in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Whirlpool's primary brand names -- KitchenAid, Roper, Bauknecht, Ignis, Brastemp, Consul and its global Whirlpool brand -- are marketed in more than 170 countries worldwide. Whirlpool Corporation is a significant supplier to Sears Holdings Corporation, which owns and controls the Kenmore brand name.

Whirlpool manufactures and markets a full line of appliances in each market it serves worldwide: clothes, washers and dryers, refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, ranges, compactors, room air conditioners and microwaves, together with portable appliances such as stand mixers, hand mixers and blenders.

Source: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=97140&p=irol-overview

VitalStocks.com Research Summary:

Price / Cash Flow Ratio is 57.9% of the Industry Average

Forward Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) is approximately 1.81

Debt / Equity Ratio is 37.9% of the Industry Average

Net Profit Margin is 483.3% of the Industry Average

Return on Equity is 464.6% of the Industry Average

P/E Ratio is only 15.1% of the Industry Average

Further Metrics / Research:

Yahoo News Search:

http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?p=whirlpool&rssSrchButton=Search&ei=UTF-8&fr=moreblog&fl=0&x=wrt

MSN Price Target:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/srwtarget.asp?Symbol=whr

Short Interest:

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=whr

Analyst Information:

http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/analyst_summary.asp?symbol=mind&selected=whr

Insider Transactions:

http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=insider&t=whr

Stock Chart:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=whr,uu[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUf!Lg]&pref=G

Zacks News and Commentary:

http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=news&t=whr

==============================================

6) Additional Stocks - Worth a Further Look

6A) AstraZeneca PLC -ADR (AZN-NYSE)

Originally Published: 8 February 2006

We are optimistic on sales trends for existing drugs, such as Arimidex and Symbicort, as well as continued strength in its schizophrenia drug Seroquel.
Equity Research Jason Napodano, CFA

Current Recommendation Buy
Prior Recommendation Hold
Date of Last Change 08/02/2005
Current Price (02/06/06) $47.05
Six-Month Target Price $56.00

OUTLOOK

AstraZeneca PLC is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and marketing of ethical (prescription) pharmaceutical products. The company ranks among the top pharmaceutical companies in the world based on revenues and global sales force. It is a leader in cardiovascular, cancer and gastrointestinal drugs. We are optimistic on sales trends for existing drugs, such as Arimidex and Symbicort, as well as continued strength in its schizophrenia drug Seroquel. We believe that the valuation is very attractive given the superior growth rate. We continue to recommend investors buy the name up to $56.

SUMMARY DATA
Risk Level Low 52-Week High $51.50
Type of Stock Large-Growth
Industry Med-Drugs
Zacks Rank in Industry 96 of 112

KEY POINTS

Fourth quarter 2005 earnings were nicely above expectations. The company posted upside of 1 cent in EPS on revenues up 9% year-over-year. Strong products such as Seroquel (schizophrenia), Arimidex (breast cancer), Nexium (acid reflux), and Symbicort (asthma / COPD) all outpaced our forecasts. Financial guidance for 2006 is $3.40 to $3.60, well above our estimate of $3.35. Valuation is highly attractive given the superior growth rate. We see AstraZeneca being able to deliver a four year CAGR of 9.8%, several hundred basis points above that of many other large-cap pharmaceuticals. Strong bottom-line growth is driven by a combination of growing revenues, moderating operational costs and aggressive share buybacks. The stock currently trades at 13.6x 2006 EPS, about a 10% discount to the peer-group. Investors are concerned with the company's late stage pipeline and long-term growth. We disagree. We believe that AstraZeneca is well positioned two or three phase III blockbuster drugs and several interesting mid-stage candidates. The AstraZeneca ADR’s have been flying below the radar of most U.S. investors. We believe that investors continue to focus on U.S. large-cap names such as Merck, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly for opportunities, ignoring stronger fundamental names such as AstraZeneca. Other European-based pharmaceuticals such as GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis also offer superior growth to their U.S. counterparts. We believe that cross-boarder consolidation is likely in 2006.

OVERVIEW

The London, England-based AstraZeneca PLC is one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. AstraZeneca was formed on April 6, 1999 through the merger of Astra AB of Sweden and Zeneca Group PLC of the U.K. In fiscal year 2005, the Gastrointestinal (26% of total revenue), Cardiovascular (22%), Oncology (16%), Respiratory (12%), Neuroscience (17%), and Infection & Other (6%) therapeutic categories generated revenue of $23.95 billion. The company's widespread operations extend beyond the United Kingdom to various parts of Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australia. For the full year 2005, the U.S. accounted for 45% of total revenues, while sales in Europe represented roughly 35%. For 2006, we forecast total global sales up 8% to $25.96 billion. AstraZeneca has headquarters in both the U.K. and U.S., and trades on the New York, London and Stockholm stock exchanges. AstraZeneca should continue to benefit from growth in key cardiovascular products such as Crestor and Atacand. Crestor, a cholesterol-lowering drug (statin) launched in the third quarter of 2003, has captured roughly 6.9% market share in the global statin market. The drug is approved in over 70 countries around the world. Crestor offers a strong efficacy profile, perhaps the strongest in the statin group. The drug should generate $1,575 million in sales this year, benefiting from Merck's Zocor going off-patent in the U.S. and E.U. The company is hoping to expand growth by demonstrating Crestor is effective in regressing coronary artery atheroma (ASTEROID).

Atacand, an angiotension II antagonist (receptor blocker) for hypertension received approval in May 2005 for an added indication in the U.S. The FDA granted approval for the treatment of heart failure (NYHA class II-IV and ejection fraction less than or equal to 40%) to reduce the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and reduce hospitalizations for heart failure. Atacand is the first of its kind to receive an indication for reducing both cardiovascular mortality and hospitalizations for heart failure. We see Atacand growth exceeding $1 billion in 2006. Toprol XL, a beta-blocker for hypertension, has been a focus of investor attention given AstraZeneca's defeat in the District Court of Missouri invalidating the patent. Management believes that Toprol XL will contribute $0.45 of EPS the remaining eleven months in 2006. However, we do not see anywhere near that "worst-case" scenario loss. Our model assumes $1,535 million in Seloken / Toprol XL sales in 2006, with KV Pharmaceuticals launching a generic alternative after June 2006. The total EPS risk for 2006 is a manageable 10 – 12 cents.

About Zacks Bull of the Day
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6B) U.S. Bancorp (USB)

John Reese, editor of the Validea Hot List newsletter

Originally Published: 3 February 2006

A Sampling of the Hot List

U.S. Bancorp (USB) is a financial holding company in the United States. U.S. Bancorp, the parent company of U.S. Bank, serves 13.1 million customers and operates 2,370 branch offices in 24 states. U.S. Bancorp customers also access their accounts through 4,620 U.S. Bank automated teller machines (ATMs), U.S. Bank Internet banking and telephone banking. U.S. Bancorp provides a comprehensive line of banking, brokerage, insurance, investment, mortgage, trust and payment services products to consumers, businesses, governments and institutions. Major lines of business provided by U.S. Bancorp through U.S. Bank and other subsidiaries include Wholesale Banking; Payment Services; Private Client, Trust and Asset Management, and Consumer Banking. On June 29, 2004, the Company purchased the remaining 50% ownership interest in EuroConex Technologies Ltd (EuroConex) from the Bank of Ireland.

Full Story: http://www.zacks.com/experts/featured/view_article.php?art_id=2386&newsletter_id=173

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Aspen Technology (AZPN) - set a new 52-week high following its earnings surprise of 100%

Aspen Technology (AZPN), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, set a new 52-week high on heavy volume following its Feb 7 earnings surprise of 100%

Full Analysis Aspen Technology Inc. is the leading supplier of software and service solutions used by companies in the process industries to design, operate and manage their manufacturing enterprises. The process industries include manufacturers of petroleum products, petrochemicals, polymers, specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals, pulp and paper, electric power, food and beverages, consumer products, metals and minerals and semiconductors.

AZPN reported earnings for the December quarter on Feb 7 at 14 cents per share, versus four cents in the same quarter in 2004, an improvement of 250%. In addition, the earnings caught analysts off guard as the report was a 100% surprise over their consensus.

Vital signs all improved for AZPN with sales growth of 19% over last year. Income was reported at $11.5 million versus a loss in the 2004 December quarter of $10.1 million.

Momentum investing is all about buying good stocks with improving fundamentals at the same time that the market is recognizing and rewarding that improvement. Such would seem to be the case with AZPN. >From a low under $5 as recently as September of last year, the stock price has steadily been improving. After the release of earnings on Feb 7, 2006, AZPN broke out to the upside on very heavy trading volume, indicating that the market is beginning to reward the improving fundamentals of AZPN

Tuesday's price action not only set a new 52-week high on heavy volume (a favorite indicator for us), but showed the highest prices for AZPN since Jan 23, 2004. The nearest overhead resistance for AZPN is at $12.32, set on Jan 13, 2004. Once that resistance is taken out, there is no logical resistance above the market until AZPN reaches $23.4 set on Mar 25, 2002.

One of the primary advantages to buying stocks setting new 52-week highs is that there is usually little overhead resistance. Certainly a lack of overhead resistance (or very old overhead resistance as in AZPN's case) is not a complete green light to profits, but it does reduce the amount of expected selling overhead. This is one of the powerful reasons that stocks making new 52-week highs tend to keep making new 52-week highs.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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ECI Telecom Ltd. (ECIL) - exceeded earnings estimates for eight straight quarters - ECIL is a cheap stock, trading at 15.4X 2006 estimates

ECI Telecom Ltd. (ECIL) has exceeded earnings estimates for eight straight quarters, each time by at least 10%. One out of the two analysts covering the stock raised numbers for 2006. ECIL is a cheap stock, trading at 15.4X 2006 estimates, which is lower than the 20% long-term growth rate.

Full Analysis

ECI Telecom Ltd. (ECIL) develops and manufactures telecom equipment and solutions for carriers and service providers across the globe. The company, which is based in Israel, has two core operating segments - Optical Networks (53% of 2005 revenue) and Broadband Access (42%), and has recently added a Data Networking Division through its acquisition of Laurel Networks (currently less than 1% of revenues). ECIL's products are mainly used in metro optical networks, as well as in equipment for broadband access, bandwidth management, and carrier-class Voice-over-Internet protocol (VoIP).

ECI Telecom's business is steadily recovering. The Optical Networks Division, which had been a drag on the company's performance over the past several years, has finally returned to profitability. In particular, the Optical Networks Division's XDM "multi-service provisioning platform" product line has been a hit with carriers as a building block in their next-generation networks. The XDM is extremely versatile and is being used in both wireline and wireless network applications.

The Broadband Access Division continues to generate strong growth with better-than-expected profit margins. Prospects are solid, in part due to the success of several new products. For example, ECIL's Hi-Focus product line enables the delivery of various flavors (versions) of DSL as well as supporting newer voice-over broadband services. Further, ECI Telecom has formed a strategic partnership with Nortel Networks to jointly market broadband access solutions to Nortel's extensive global customer base. In addition, the recently completed acquisition of Laurel Networks will solidify ECI's position as a leading supplier of next-generation IP equipment and solutions.

ECI reported solid results for the fourth quarter and full-year of 2005. Revenues of $169 million were up 21% from a year ago (up 4% sequentially). Adjusted earnings of $0.09 per share, versus $0.08 in the year-ago period, beat the Zacks consensus by approximately 28%. The gross margin of 39.9% was an improvement from 39.6% in the prior-year period but down from 42.1% last quarter. Revenues for the Broadband Access division were up 13% from a year ago (virtually flat sequentially), to $68 million as ECI continued to see strong demand for broadband infrastructure gear from a handful of key customers, led by France Telecom and Deutsche Telecom.

The company has exceeded earnings estimates for eight straight quarters, each time by at least 10%. One out of the two analysts covering the stock raised numbers for 2006. ECIL is a cheap stock, trading at 15.4X 2006 estimates, which is lower than the 20% long-term growth rate.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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Monday, February 13, 2006

Spear Report - KKD - FTO - BMHC

Gregory Spear, editor of The Spear Report newsletter, lists five things that might pressurize the Energy space in 2006. Read this expert's thoughts on energy and politics. Then discover his long-term outlook on the sector. Afterward, take a look at Spear's profile of a Consensus Buy List home builder as well as some other names from the Buy List.

February 3...

In considering things that might pressurize the Energy Security container to the critical flash point in 2006, five factors come to mind: 1) a Category 5 hurricane more powerful than Katrina that disrupts Gulf oil production, refineries and infrastructure on a massive scale, and adds weight to the argument that the record 2005 hurricane season was the beginning of a global warming calamity; 2) willful withholding or sabotaging of oil supplies by Iran for political reasons, with or without an attack by Israel; 3) disruption of oil exports by other primary or secondary OPEC producers due to local unrest, strikes, rising nationalism and the exodus of key Western personnel; 4) terrorism at strategic transport bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz; 5) runaway commodity prices due to global competition for assets on the part of state-run energy companies in China and Russia that will "over-pay" now to gain long-term strategic advantage.

Oil prices are softening this week on excess inventory concerns and energy stocks are correcting modestly. Should negative sentiment increase in this over-loved sector over the next few weeks, Spear and his team believe it would provide an attractive buying opportunity. In their view, the bull market in energy may periodically rest, but they believe the ride is far from over. Spear and his team expect short-term "superspikes" and short-term "collapses" within a long-term bull trend.

Building Materials (BMHC)

When Spear and his team profiled BMHC back in May 6, 2005 they wrote, "This is a striking long-term opportunity for those investors who appreciate a 'value on the move' company." Shares had appreciated about 40% since then, down from a high of $99, which equaled a 76% gain. Despite the worries about Fed tightening and the weakness in the principal homebuilding plays, Spear and his team do not think this bull story is over for BMHC.

BMHC is a large-scale contractor that specializes in providing a variety of services to the large national builders and other contractors. The company distributes building products and manufactures building components such as millwork, trusses and wall panels. It also provides contract construction services including framing and installation of specialized building components such as cabinets and doors. BMHC can even handle full-service construction for high-volume production homebuilders in key growth markets in the Western, Southern and East Coast states. The company has continued to expand their market share through aggressive acquisitions and have broadened their service offerings at existing sites. For example, BMHC purchased framing, plumbing, concrete and lumber supply operations in six states in 2005.

Sales increased 39% to $820 million compared to $592 million in the same quarter a year ago, primarily due to the growth in construction services. Income from operations increased 117% to $76 million and margins increased 260 basis points, a sign of pricing power. Moreover, the company is not sitting on its laurels, but rather is getting more efficient. Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to 13.7% of sales compared to 14.4% in the same quarter a year ago.

Other Stocks from the Consensus Buy List include:

Frontier Oil Corporation (FTO) is an independent energy company engaged in crude oil refining and the wholesale marketing of refined petroleum products. Their refineries are complex refineries, which means that they can process heavier, less expensive types of crude oil and still produce a high percentage of gasoline, diesel fuel and other high margin refined products.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (KKD) is a leading branded specialty retailer of premium quality doughnuts which are made throughout the day in their stores. The principal business is the high volume production and sale of varieties of premium quality doughnuts, including their signature Hot Original Glazed. The company has established Krispy Kreme as a leading consumer brand with a loyal customer base through their longstanding commitment to quality and consistency.

This article highlights the commentary of Gregory R. Spear for the Zacks.com audience. Gregory R. Spear provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "The Spear Report" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "The Spear Report" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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Rhodes Report newsletter - Chicago Fed President Moskow on the U.S. Economic Outlook

Richard Rhodes, editor of The Rhodes Report newsletter, provides his thoughts on and a recap of Chicago Fed President Moskow's comments on the U.S. Economic Outlook. Discover what Moskow had to say and Rhodes' assessment of it. Then find out what this featured expert has to say about Mr. Greenspan's legacy. Afterward, check out some of the stocks from Rhodes' Paid-to-Play Portfolio.

CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT MOSKOW COMMENTS

Yesterday, Mr. Moskow, who is a non-voting FOMC member, spoke on the US Economic Outlook. Richard Rhodes and his team found nothing new in Mr. Moskow's prepared remarks as they were nearly identical to those presented in a speech given in mid-January.

To recap, he repeated: "My views about policy will depend importantly on how various cost factors play out and affect the outlook for inflation. And if inflation or inflation expectations were to rise persistently, then policy clearly would have to be tightened further. Of course, other events could transpire that result in prospects for inflation and growth that would be consistent with a less-firm policy stance. ... Indeed, the next policy decision is much less certain now than it was when rates clearly were well below neutral. This increases the importance of economic conditionality in the policy decision."

Many chose to look at this "hawkishly"; however, Rhodes and his team don't see it that way. They are simply candid remarks about policy; he doesn't have a vote, but his input is important. Rhodes and his team remain of the opinion Mr. Greenspan's hawkish remarks before a Lehman Brothers group as carrying much more weight although he is not involved any longer. This is his 'street cred' developed over 18 years speaking...and the markets will listen to him and punish policy decisions that appear to be in direct contravention to them.

Holdings in the "Paid-to-Play" Portfolio include:

DRS Technologies (DRS) is a leading supplier of defense electronic systems. The company provides advanced technology products and services to government and commercial customers worldwide. The company develops and manufactures a broad range of mission critical products, from rugged computers and peripherals to systems and components in the areas of communications, combat systems, data storage, digital imaging, electro-optics, flight safety and space.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) is a leading branded specialty retailer of premium quality doughnuts which are made throughout the day in their stores. The principal business is the high volume production and sale of varieties of premium quality doughnuts, including their signature Hot Original Glazed. The company has established Krispy Kreme as a leading consumer brand with a loyal customer base through their longstanding commitment to quality and consistency.

Western Gas Resources (WGR) is an independent gas gatherer, processor and marketer with operations located in major oil-and gas-producing basins in the United States. The Company owns and operates natural gas gathering, processing and storage facilities and markets and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Company provides necessary services to the producers of natural gas and NGLs by connecting producers' wells to the Company's gathering system for delivery to its processing plants, processing the gas to remove NGLs, and marketing the gas and NGLs.


Eli Lilly (LLY) discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells products in one significant business segment -pharmaceutical products. The company directs its research efforts primarily toward the search for products to diagnose, prevent and treat human diseases. The company also conducts research to find products to treat diseases in animals and to increase the efficiency of animal food production.


This article highlights the commentary of Richard Rhodes for the Zacks.com audience. Richard Rhodes provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "Rhodes Report" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "Rhodes Report" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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Intevac (IVAC) - explodes to the upside

Last Week's Zacks Momentum Buys Despite a generally weak stock market last week, nine previously featured Momentum stocks of the day posted new 52-week highs and Intevac (IVAC), a previously featured stock in December, explodes to the upside.
Aspreva Pharmaceuticals (ASPV) shocked the market last week when management provide higher guidance for both the fourth quarter and full 2005 year. As a result, the stock has propelled itself into new high ground and has yet to find its supply / demand balance.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) eeked out a small .9% earnings surprise on Jan 26 but the real news affecting this stock is that the President’s new budget presented to Congress did not cut weapons spending.

Whirlpool Corp (WHR) a Zacks #1 Rank stock, appears to be breaking out to the upside from a long term trading range propelled by stronger earnings and analysts’ positive revisions for the FY 2006.

Alcatel Sponsore (ALA) a Zacks #1 Rank stock, is emerging from a long sideways trading range.

Updates to Momentum Zacks Rank Buy Stocks

One Momentum Stock of the Day that's been on a tear recently is Intevac (IVAC), now up more than 47% since it was featured on Dec 30, 2005. This week IVAC announced earnings for the quarter ended Dec 2005 at 46 cents per share versus -16 cents in the same quarter last year. Furthermore, this marked a 15% positive surprise over analysts' expectations. IVAC stock gapped higher into new 52-week highs the following trading session and closed 17.4% higher for the day.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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