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Friday, June 02, 2006

(CSX) - Since we first featured the company, seven analysts submitted upward earnings revisions for this year while five followed suit for next year

CSX Corporation (CSX), a stock that we first featured on Mar 29, 2006, has continued its winning ways. The company met or topped the Street's estimates in nine of the past 10 quarters. Earnings per share are projected to grow 14.1% over the next 3-5 years. Analysts' estimates have been trending higher. The company is currently yielding 0.78% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 1.3%.

Full Analysis

CSX Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services. The company's principal operating company, CSX Transportation Inc., operates the largest railroad in the eastern United States.

CSX was first presented as a Growth & Income pick on Mar 29, 2006, and at that time the company was a Zacks #2 Rank (buy). Since that time the company elevated its status to a Zacks #1 Rank (strong buy). The company met or exceeded analysts' earnings estimates in nine of the past 10 quarters. Earnings per share grew 19.0% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow 14.1% over the next 3-5 years.

On Apr 18, 2006, CSX reported first-quarter profits of $245 million, or $1.06 per share. With the Street expecting 87 cents, the company surprised to the upside by 21.8%. CSX posted earnings per share of 68 cents in the prior-year period. Revenues rose 10.4% to $2.33 billion-a new record for the company. Furthermore, operating income of $487 million also marked a new record.

Since we first featured the company, seven analysts submitted upward earnings revisions for this year while five followed suit for next year. Five analysts revised their estimates upward for this quarter and next quarter. The consensus estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 10.1% and 17.4%, respectively, over the past 60 days. Profit forecasts for full years 2006 and 2007 rose 13.6% and 14.8%, respectively, over the same time period.

On May 3, 2006, the Board of Directors at CSX approved a quarterly dividend of 13 cents per common share of stock. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.78% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.3%. CSX's return on equity of 11% is in line with the industry average.

CSX's capacity expansion plans to further enable service improvement and volume growth in attractive corridors of the Northeast and Southeast markets remain on schedule. The company stated that approximately one third of the projects are underway and will be finished this year, with the balance to be completed in 2007.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(CNX) - is one of the largest coal producers in the U.S.

CONSOL Energy, Inc. (CNX) has met or exceeded earnings estimates in eight out of the past nine quarters, with two of them resulting in surprises over 100%. Eight different analysts have raised their numbers for 2006. This year's estimates have increased 3.4% to $5.13 per share over the past 60 days. The stock is quite cheap, currently trading at 6.6x next year's estimates, well below the long-term growth rate of 18.50%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.35.
Full Analysis

CONSOL Energy, Inc. (CNX) is one of the largest coal producers in the U.S., with about 4.2 billion tons of proved and probable reserves as of the end of 2004. The company's 2004 production of 67.4 million tons accounted for roughly 5% of the total coal produced in the U.S., and about 12% of the total coal produced in the eastern U.S. CONSOL Energy is the largest producer of high-BTU bituminous coal (which creates more energy per unit of coal), and has the second largest amount of recoverable reserves in the U.S.

The company possesses one of the largest coal-bed methane (natural gas) reserves in the U.S., with a year-end 2004 proved reserve base of approximately one trillion cubic feet, and daily production of approximately 146 million cubic feet (MCF).

The broad outlook for coal prices remains positive, largely reflecting the commodity's positive supply/demand fundamentals and higher prices for competing fuels like natural gas. As one of the major coal producers in the U.S., CONSOL Energy is expected to benefit from these trends. Also, the strategic location of its coal and natural gas reserves near major consumption centers along the East Coast provides it with a significant competitive advantage over its peers.

The company's considerable acreage in southwestern Virginia provides it with a detailed inventory of low-risk drilling prospects, which could help sustain impressive production-growth performance. With a projected production-growth rate of 10-15% and about three-fourths of 2004's volume already hedged at attractive rates, CONSOL Energy's coal-bed methane business is expected to continue generating strong cash flows.

Additionally, recent refinancing and proceeds from the sale of Australian assets have helped to improve the company's financial position. Considering the strong pricing in met coal and the re-pricing of about five million tons of steam coal, price realizations could rise to $36.00 a ton for 2006.

The company has met or exceeded earnings estimates in eight out of the past nine quarters, with two of them resulting in surprises over 100%. Eight different analysts have raised their numbers for 2006. This year's estimates have increased 3.4% to $5.13 per share over the past 60 days. The stock is quite cheap, currently trading at 6.6x next year's estimates, well below the long-term growth rate of 18.50%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.35.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(NTY) - Earnings per share grew 15.7% over the past five years

NBTY, Inc. (NTY), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, recently topped the Street's earnings estimate by 7.5% when it posted fiscal second-quarter profits of 43 cents per share. Earnings per share are projected to grow 13.0% over the next 3-5 years. Analysts' profit forecasts have been on the rise for fiscal 2006 and fiscal 2007. NTY's return on equity exceeds that of the industry average and the company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.3.

Full Analysis

NBTY, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing and retail of nutritional supplements in the United States and worldwide. The company markets products under several brand names, including Nature's Bounty®, Vitamin World®, Puritan's Pride®, Holland & Barrett®, Rexall®, Sundown®, Carb Solutions®, MET-Rx®, WORLDWIDE Sport Nutrition®, GNC (UK)®, DeTuinen®, CarbWise® and American Health®.

NTY exceeded analysts' earnings estimates for the past three quarters by an average margin of 8.6%. Earnings per share grew 15.7% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow 13.0% over the next 3-5 years.

On Apr 27, 2006, the company posted fiscal second-quarter earnings per share of 43 cents, which beat analysts' estimates by 7.5% and surpassed profits in the prior-year period by an impressive 43.3%. Net sales increased 8.8% to $482 million, versus $443 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2005. Revenues were aided by $32 million in net sales from NBTY's recent acquisitions of Solgar, LeNaturiste and SISU.

For the first six months of fiscal 2006, net sales were up 8.6% to $937 million, compared to $863 million for the first half of fiscal 2005. The company increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past nine years.

Analysts covering the stock have been upping their earnings estimates for fiscal 2006, as well as fiscal 2007. The consensus estimate for this fiscal year currently stands at $1.53—an increase of 6.3% over the past 60 days. Profit forecasts for next fiscal year jumped 6.0% to $1.76 over the same time period.

NTY is trading at a discounted valuation despite solid fundamentals and upwardly trending earnings estimates. The company has a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.3. The P/B multiple of the market, as represented by the S&P 500, is currently 4.0. NTY has been more profitable than its peers as is represented by its return on equity of 12%, compared to 9% for the industry.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(HITT) - Is Hittite Microwave a buying opportunity?

Full Analysis

On Apr 27, HITT reported first quarter EPS of 29 cents, a 45% positive surprise over analysts' expectations. Sales grew 47% to $27.9 million and Income grew 91.7% to $8.8 million. This was the third straight positive EPS report for HITT.

Technical Review In the day following the release of the earnings report, HITT gapped higher and closed up over 13%. In the weeks following the report, HITT gave up its initial gains, filling the report gap and more. Over the last week, the stock has managed to score solid gains despite a very weak general market. The all time high for HITT is $38.54 made on May 5, in the immediate aftermath of the positive earnings report.

There is solid support at $30.72 made on May 24, while the stock was giving up its post report gains. In fact, the May 24 action certainly looks like a one-day reversal, with the stock having a wide range, setting new lows for the move, and then moving back to near unchanged. Since that time, the stock has trended higher. The longer-term trend is clearly up and, given the positive earnings history, would view the current price action as an attractive buying opportunity.

Background

Hittite Microwave Corporation designs and develops high performance integrated circuits, or ICs, modules and subsystems for technically demanding radio frequency, or RF, microwave and millimeterwave applications. The Company's products apply analog, digital and mixed-signal semiconductor technologies, which are used in a wide variety of applications for automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, fiber optics, microwave & millimeterwave communications, military, space and test & measurement markets.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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Thursday, June 01, 2006

(CMI) - Consensus earnings estimates for this quarter and next quarter jumped 9.3% and 7.9%

Cummins, Inc. (CMI) exceeded analysts' earnings estimates in nine out of the past 10 quarters. After posting record earnings and revenues in 2005, the company expects bigger and better things in 2006. CMI recently raised its full-year 2006 earnings per share guidance. Earnings per share are projected to grow 14.5% over the next 3-5 years. Analysts' estimates have been trending higher. The company is currently yielding 1.1% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 2.7%.

Full Analysis

Cummins, Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes and services engines and related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handling, filtration, emission solutions and electrical power generation systems. The company operates in three segments: engine, power generation and components.

CMI topped the Street's earnings estimate in nine out of the past 10 quarters by an average margin of 14.8%. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 14.5% over the next 3-5 years.

On Apr 28, 2006, CMI beat analysts' estimates by a penny when the company posted first-quarter profits of $135 million or $2.70 per share. The company recorded profits of $97 million, or $1.96 per share in the prior-year period. Strong sales across most of CMI's product lines fueled revenue growth of 21.8% to $2.68 billion.

Based on the company's solid first quarter, CMI raised its full-year 2006 earnings per share guidance. The company now projects earnings between $12.40 and $12.60 per share, versus its previous outlook of between $11.90 and $12.10 per share. CMI forecasts profits between $3.35 and $3.45 per share in the second quarter.

Consensus earnings estimates for this quarter and next quarter jumped 9.3% and 7.9%, respectively, over the past 60 days. Profit forecasts for this year and next year increased 13.6% and 7.1%, respectively, over the same time period.

On May 9, 2006, while addressing CMI's shareholder base, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tim Solso informed the audience that while 2005 produced record earnings and revenues, he expects 2006 to be even better. The company increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past four years, while increasing profits for the past two. Revenues and profits soared 17.5% and 57.1%, respectively, in 2005.

CMI has a current dividend yield of 1.1% and a five-year average dividend yield of 2.7%. The company's return on equity is impressive at 32%, which is in line with the industry average.

CMI is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 22.0% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(SAFC) - Analysts covering the stock have been upping their earnings estimates

Safeco Corporation (SAFC), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, exceeded analysts' earnings estimates in 15 out of the past 16 quarters, most recently by 17.5%. Analysts' profit forecasts have been on the rise. The Board of Directors recently increased its quarterly dividend and announced a $200 million share buyback program. The company is currently trading at a discounted valuation-with a price-to-book ratio of 1.7.

Full Analysis

Safeco Corporation operates as a property and casualty insurance company in the United States. The company's four business segments include Safeco Personal Insurance, Safeco Business Insurance, Surety and P&C Other.

SAFC topped the Street's earnings estimate in six consecutive quarters and in 15 out of the past 16 quarters.

On May 2, 2006, the company exceeded analysts' earnings expectations by 17.5% when it recorded first-quarter profits of $1.61 per share. When compared to the prior-year period, SAFC's earnings were up 8.8%. Total revenues amounted to $1.56 billion, down slightly from the $1.58 billion posted in the first quarter of 2005.

Looking ahead, SAFC declared four major goals for the year: 1) to market insurance products in ways that reflect the diversity of consumers and their buying preferences; 2) to make material progress toward becoming a low-cost carrier; 3) to build its technical infrastructure and capability; and 4) to deploy its capital to provide meaningful long-term returns for shareholders.

Analysts covering the stock have been upping their earnings estimates. Consensus estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 11.5% and 5.7%, respectively, over the past 90 days. Profit forecasts for this year and next year jumped 7.2% and 3.6%, respectively, over the same time period.

On May 3, 2006, the Board of Directors at SAFC increased its quarterly dividend by 20% to 30 cents per share. SAFC is currently yielding 1.8% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 2.1%. Furthermore, the Board will repurchase up to $200 million of its outstanding common stock. Going back to 2003, the company repurchased 23.9 million shares at a cost of $1.2 billion.

The company is currently trading at a valuation of 10.5x trailing 12-month earnings and at 9.7x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.5x trailing 12-month earnings and at 15.3x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, compared to 4.0 for the market. SAFC sports a return on equity of 16%, compared to 11% for the industry average.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(OPNT) - a 150% positive earnings surprise over analysts' estimates

OPNET Technologies, Inc. provides predictive network management software solutions that enable organizations to optimize the performance and maximize the availability of communications networks and networked applications. The company's suite of products advances network and application management beyond reactive problem identification and reporting to proactive problem resolution and avoidance. The company's OPNET product suite consists of three primary software solutions: OPNET IT DecisionGuru, OPNET Modeler, and OPNET Netbiz.

Full Analysis

OPNET reported earnings per share of five cents on May 17, a 150% positive earnings surprise over analysts' estimates. This represented an eight cent per share improvement over the previous year's quarter. Sales grew 29% to $21.3 million and income was $0.99 million. The March 2006 quarter represented the third consecutive quarter of a triple digit percentage earnings surprise for OPNT.

Technical Review OPNT, like many computer and technology stocks, entered a long bear market in late 2000, when the stock peaked at $55.75. Since bottoming out on Apr 15, 2003 at $5.14 OPNT has spent most of its time moving in a trading range. Since October 2004, that trading range has extended roughly between $7 and $11.

Now however, evidence is beginning to mount that OPNT may well be moving out of its long slumber. As mentioned in the fundamental section, the company has delivered three straight large earnings surprises, evidence that the company is turning things around.

OPNT broke above its range for the first time on Apr 10, 2006 and promptly moved as high as $13.50 by April 18. Since that time the stock has sold off, consolidating around the technically important $11 area. As we've mentioned before, tight trading ranges, such as the one that OPNT is currently trading in, are graphical representations of supply and demand. With the current earnings report, you have confirmation that things are turning around for OPNT on the business side. With important support at $11 OPNT has built a solid base for further advances. This would be an excellent example of one of the tenants of Momentum investing, that is buying companies with improving prospects at the same that the market itself is rewarding those improvements.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006

(WAB) - 2006 estimates have increased 7% to $1.69 per share - 2007 estimates have risen 11.1%

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) has exceeded earnings estimates for four consecutive quarters by at least 14%. Five analysts have raised their numbers for 2006, while four have done so for 2007. Over the past 60 days, 2006 estimates have increased 7% to $1.69 per share. Over the same period, 2007 estimates have risen 11.1%.

Full Analysis

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation, doing business as Wabtec Corporation, provides various technology-based equipments for the rail industry worldwide. It manufactures and services components for new and existing freight cars and locomotives; and passenger transit vehicles, such as subway cars and buses.

The company's customers include railroads throughout North America, as well as in the United Kingdom, Australia, Europe, South Africa and India; manufacturers of transportation equipment, such as locomotives, freight cars, subway vehicles, and buses; lessors of such equipment; and passenger transit authorities, primarily those in North America.

WAB said first-quarter net income more than doubled from a year ago, thanks to higher margins and a sales increase. Earnings rose to $20 million, or 41 cents per share, compared to $9.2 million, or 20 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Sales in the three months ended March 31 rose 8 percent, to $262.4 million from $241.8 million. The company proceeded to raise its full year guidance as well.

As would be expected, the CEO was quite pleased with the quarter: "We're off to a strong start in 2006, with our operations producing impressive margin improvements and cash generation," said Albert J. Neupaver, Wabtec's president and chief executive officer. "It's clear that our efforts to improve the company's cost structure are having a meaningful impact on our gross margin, in accordance with management's goals. We're also benefiting from robust demand in our freight rail markets and we expect that to continue throughout the year, as railroads continue to report traffic growth, especially in the intermodal segment.

The company has exceeded earnings estimates for four consecutive quarters by at least 14%. Five analysts have raised their numbers for 2006, while four have done so for 2007. Over the past 60 days, 2006 estimates have increased 7% to $1.69 per share. Over the same period, 2007 estimates have risen 11.1%.

The stock is currently trading at 16.9x next year's estimates of $2.10 per share, slightly below the company's long-term growth rate of 17.15%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.99.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(FMCN) - Is Focus Media ready to set new highs?

Background: Focus Media operates the largest out-of-home advertising network in China using audiovisual plat-panel displays based on the number of locations and number of displays in its network.

Full Analysis: On May 18, FMCN reported first quarter EPS at 22 cents, a 22% surprise over analysts' expectations. Sales grew to $33.1 million, up 417.8% from last year's $6.4 million while income grew a healthy 421.6% to $10.43 million.

Technical Review Shares of FMCN jumped 12% in reaction to the May 18 earnings report. Importantly, FMCN reaction to the report was not sufficient to set new 52-week highs and the stock could only match the high set on May 5 at 69.95. Since then however, the stock has sold off and is generally moving sideways in a tight trading range between $70 and $60.

From a long term perspective, FMCN shares are in a bullish trend. Since its American debut in July 2005, the stock has more than tripled. While it still only gets limited analyst coverage here in the USA, the coverage that it does get comes from respected majors. Technicians clearly note the failure to set new highs on May 19, but also note the extremely heavy volume that day.

So what's the verdict on FMCN? The preponderance of available technical evidence is that the stock is likely to move higher. Long-term trend is clearly up, while a positive earnings surprise and a consensus among analysts favor the stock. And don't forget the nice reaction to the earnings report. On the negative side, one looks at the failure to make new highs in face of the earnings report. Personally, it looks like FMCN was leaning the wrong way going into the report and selling off. Once the positive earnings report came out, the stock corrected the pre-report selloff, but in doing so, did not have the energy to break into new high ground. Now the stock is backing and filling. Still the long term trend is likely to rule in this case and expect the stock to break into new 52-week highs shortly.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(TUP) - Consensus earnings estimates for this year and next year have been on the rise

Tupperware Brands Corporation (TUP) exceeded analysts' earnings estimates for 11 straight quarters, most recently by 5.9%. Earnings per share are projected to grow 10.0% over the next 3-5 years. Analysts have been upping their estimates for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. The company is currently yielding 4.2% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 4.7%.

Full Analysis

Tupperware Brands Corporation engages in the manufacture and distribution of kitchen ware, cosmetics and personal care products worldwide. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in 2005.

TUP has a history of topping the Street's earnings estimates, having done so for 11 consecutive quarters. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 10.0% over the next 3-5 years.

On Apr 25, 2006, TUP reported first-quarter earnings per share of 36 cents. With analysts covering the stock projecting 34 cents per share, TUP surprised to the upside by 5.9%. Net sales amounted to $423.7 million, compared to $326.4 million in the first quarter of 2005.

Consensus earnings estimates for this year and next year have been on the rise. Analysts covering the stock increased their estimates 15.7% to $1.77 per share over the past 60 days. Profit forecasts for the full year of 2007 jumped 8.0% to $1.89 per share over the same time period.

On May 17, 2006, the Board of Directors at TUP announced a quarterly dividend of 22 cents per share, payable on Jul 6, 2006, to shareholders of record as of Jun 14, 2006. The company has an extremely impressive current dividend yield of 4.2% and a five-year average dividend yield of 4.7%.

The company's return on equity is impressive at 27%, which is in line with the industry average. TUP has great brand recognition in the United States and is developing a strong international presence as well—emerging markets included. Russia, Turkey, Poland China, India and Indonesia all performed well in the first quarter, with a 34% increase in local currency sales.

The company's solid financials give it long-term appeal. TUP increased revenues for the past three years and expanded gross margins for seven years running. Revenues for the full year of 2006 are projected between $1.75 and $1.8 billion. This would equate to an increase of between 36.7% and 40.6% when compared to full-year 2005 revenues.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(POL) - reported first-quarter profits of 33 cents per share - topping the Street's estimate by 65.0%

PolyOne Corporation (POL), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, topped the Street's earnings estimate in seven out of the past eight quarters, most recently by 65.0%. Analysts' earnings estimates have been trending higher for this year and next year. The company is currently trading at a discounted valuation—with a price-to-book ratio of 1.8. POL's return on equity is twice that of the industry average.
Full Analysis

PolyOne Corporation is the world's largest polymer services company, providing customers with a single source for polymer, colorant and additive products. The company's end markets are in the automotive, building materials, durable goods, packaging, business equipment and telecommunications sectors.

POL exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in seven out of the past eight quarters. On May 3, 2006, the company reported first-quarter profits of 33 cents per share—topping the Street's estimate by 65.0% and soaring past its earnings of 20 cents per share in the prior-year period. Growth in POL's performance plastics and distribution segment fueled a 10.3% increase in revenues when compared to the first quarter of 2005.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, the company anticipates that positive business conditions for products within its performance plastics segment should continue, resulting in sales and shipments at or near first-quarter levels.

The company succeeded in increasing revenues and growing profits for the past two years, most recently by 13.4% and 99.6%, respectively, in 2005.

The consensus earnings estimates for this year and next year have been on the rise. Analysts covering the stock increased their estimates 24.7% to 91 cents per share over the past 90 days. Profit forecasts for the full year of 2007 jumped 12.8% over the same time period.

The company is currently trading at a valuation of 12.8x trailing 12-month earnings and at 10.1x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.8x trailing 12-month earnings and at 15.6x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.8, compared to 4.0 for the market.

When analyzing POL's profitability, as measured by its return on equity, investors should be impressed. The company's return on equity doubles that of the industry average-16% compared to 8%.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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Spear Report weekly update - May 26, 2006

May 26, 2006

Detail
Thursday brought us the first pair of back-to-back up-days in the market since May 4-5th. That's a relief considering that the S&P 500 erased almost the entire year's gains in just five trading days, starting the day after the May 10th Fed meeting. Markets fall faster than they rise--much faster. Why? Fear is a more powerful motivator than greed, and as we discussed last week, fear has been toying with Mr. Market over the last few weeks.

Now that the Dow is up about 180 points from Wednesday's low, what is the best strategy? The energy patch appears to be leading once again, so if you are an active trader, then trade those stocks. If you are an investor, consider a position in refiner Holly Corp (HOC), profiled below. Otherwise, consider selling some holdings into the current strength. Why would we suggest that?

Bricks

Last week, we said, "You just can't have a correction without that fear, so if you want to "buy low," you must be prepared to buy into bad news, exactly when it looks the stupidest to do so." We also said, "...the current correction is well within normal uptrend parameters." After Thursday's bounce, that advice looks pretty good and Gregory's Nasdaq chart posted on TC2000 RT edition on 5/12 nailed the bounce 12 days later with uncanny accuracy (the power of trend lines) although with some doubts about the lasting effects of any such support. (Get a recommended trial subscription to the charting software Gregory and Ken use daily here:

http://www.spearreport.com/adnet/GSletter.php?AD=1

Indeed, with 5.3% GDP growth in the first quarter and double digit profit growth even as interest rates continued to rise, the economy appears relatively bullet proof, yet the market does not appear to be responding enthusiastically to the good news. Instead, it is rallying from a very oversold condition, which is a good thing, but we have not necessarily seen the last of this latest challenge to the overall uptrend.

What is continuing to depress the Street? As markets try to anticipate real world events by 6-9 months, the concern is that this might be as good as it gets. Apart from inflation issues, which we have discussed in previous editions, real estate appreciation came to an abrupt halt in the first quarter of 2006, as the median price of a U.S. home fell 3.3% vs the fourth quarter of 2005. Nationwide, more than 300,000 properties entered some stage of foreclosure in the first quarter of 2006, a 72% year-over-year increase, and a shocking 38% sequential increase from the previous quarter. Foreclosures have now grown in four consecutive quarters. Consumer confidence is low, as is builders' confidence, which fell to an 11-year low in a recent survey by the National Association of Home Builders. These measures suggest the renewed possibility of a long-anticipated retrenchment in the consumer sector, which represents 70% of the U.S. economy.

Falling BRICs
Second, although we noted that the pullback in the NYSE, our market bellwether, is still within normal retracement parameters, caution is warranted because the entire global equity marketplace, from South America to Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Asia and even Australia is experiencing similar selling pressure. To be sure, the "falling BRIC" markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) were over-heated after a 4-year run and in dire need of a correction of some seriously bubble-ish action. The Russian bourse, for example, was up 300% in the last 12 months, and the Indian stock market more than doubled in the same period before last week's 25% haircut. Moreover, the Indian, Russian and Brazilian markets aren't very large in terms of market cap, and move relatively easily in response to capital inflows. In Q1, those flows were Amazonian, exceeding the total annual 2005 inflows by nearly a factor of two. Something had to give, and such corrections usually take longer than a couple of weeks to re-establish equilibrium.

So is the world economy about to topple like a house of cards? Probably not, although a mini personal debt crisis due to credit abuse appears to be underway on a global basis. In the UK, for example, the number of people sliding into bankruptcy is soaring past the previous peak set during the early '90s recession to the highest levels since the 1960's, up 73% year-over-year. The good news, however, is that after two years of consolidation, real estate prices in the UK have firmed and are now moving slowly higher. This may indicate that a soft landing in the U.S. real estate sector is likely.

Brass Tacks
Although we expect that the current global correction has further to run, one reason we are not reading a great deal of gloom and doom into the current commodity and emerging market melt down is that the Reuters Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) looks healthy. The CRB index was created in 1957 and contains 17 commodities broadly divided into Industrials, Precious Metals, Tropicals, Grains, Meats and Energies. We would expect this index to act as a leading indicator of global economic activity, as it has been well-correlated with the global recovery for the last four years. Here's what it looks like now.

http://www.spearreport.com/update/CRB_5.24.06.gif

We don't see a bubble here, as commodity prices in real terms are only about 35% of what they were at the last peak in November 1980, which marked the end of the inflationary spiral of the 1970s. This time, however, inflation is not driving the commodity bull; instead it is fueled by global population growth of nearly 100 million people each year, simultaneous with the industrialization and consumerization in the BRIC countries and elsewhere. The secular decline in the dollar is adding a tailwind to this structural dynamic. Moreover, with commodities representing only about 10% of manufacturing costs, an extended bull market in commodities is not going to present a serious negative feedback mechanism for global growth, especially as productivity continues to increase.

Avian Wild Card
Of course, all bets are off if the avian flu mutates into an efficient human-to-human (H2H) transmission mode. News of a family that was fatally infected in Indonesia brought this possibility up once again this past week, and further disregulated the market. The good news: the World Health Organization was on top of the situation and has already done the DNA analysis, which indicates that the virus that killed these people was not a mutation of H5N1into a more virulent or infectious form. The WHO investigation found no evidence of spread within the general community, no clear evidence that "efficient" human-to-human transmission has occurred and has not elected to raise the world threat level. Without efficient H2H transmission, a pandemic will not happen. That said, other "clusters" of infected individuals are under surveillance and study in other parts of Asia. The virus has now been confirmed in over sixty countries and is expected to begin to spread through North America by au tumn. This week we profile a company that represents a speculative play on the avian flu situation.

Conclusion
As bleak as it all sounds, bad news does not always create a bad market. Often, Wall Street has already anticipated the worst and when the obviously bad news hits, the market often turns itself around and rallies. We are in the midst of just such a rally now. Even so, caution is warranted. The TSR Timing Model, which we discussed in some detail last week, is now at 0% invested.

If circumstances are such that a bear market actually develops, it can produce fabulous buying opportunities for those with level heads and a sense of market timing, but they are hell for the Buy-and-Hold crowd. What good is a bear market bottom if you don't have cash to deploy or if you are so emotionally beat up that you hate the market? At the moment, the market gods are favoring us with a long overdue bounce. Take advantage of it to preserve capital for better times, whether by raising cash or hedging, until the uptrend is firmly re-established.

Editor's Note: Our weekly profiled stocks are normally available only to subscribers of The Spear Report. To see all our weekly profiles and our top-performing Weekly Buy List, click on the link below to subscribe to The Spear Report.

Courtesy: SpearReport.com

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Stealth Stocks Weekly Update on Tuesday, May 30, 2006

This is Dennis Slothower with your Stealth Stocks Weekly Update on Tuesday, May 30, 2006.

Summary of Recommendations

The market is now testing critical support at the 200-day moving averages for the broad market indexes and is now deeply oversold on an intermediate basis.

I recommend that you start nibbling in the financial and bank related sectors as a start.

Market Commentary

I realize this is a scary time but it is out of scary times that some of the best buying opportunities start to emerge.

Some of you may believe that we are at the start of a new bear market, but that has yet to be proven. The broad market indexes remain at or above their long-term primary support levels, though they are being tested right now.

I know you realize this is an important test. Often after testing a major support level and bouncing, stocks often retest this support again, as technical backing and filling takes place to prove that key support will hold.

We often see this backing and filling process near major long-term support levels. The bears sell into rallies and the bulls buy near major supports, so the market is often very volatile at such critical junctures until the trend can be proven.

On Wednesday we get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. I think institutions held back buying until they get a feel for the tone of how the Fed governors feel about future monetary policies regarding interest rates.

Given the Fed's tone from the Fed statement following the last FOMC meeting in which they stated further rate hikes may be needed depending on the data, traders appear to be preparing for the worst out of these minutes tomorrow.

The Fed has given so many mixed signals recently it lacks credibility, especially with this group of governors who are so new to the job.

I believe that the market is making an intermediate bottom. The weekly stochastics for the Russell 2000 have %K at just 3 and %D at 15 - deep in the hole on an intermediate basis. But this backing and filling is a proving process that just has to work its way through and prove if long term supports will hold.

With prices of the major indexes either at or just above the 200-day moving averages and monthly middle Bollinger Band lines, I think we still need to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.

For two years now we have seen a number of intermediate corrections take the market down to test these key supports and each time the market has proven them to be buying opportunities.

I look for the Fed to expand in the third quarter and defend this critical support level by injecting liquidity into the monetary system. However, this is a very important test.

I recommend moving some capital into the financial sector. I think the Fed is looking for an excuse to pause here on developing economic weakness. I think the financial sector will benefit in the third quarter as the Fed looks to end economic contraction ahead of the mid-term elections.

Courtesy: Stealthstocksonline.com

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(DAKT) - stock looks poised for another leg higher as the recent upsurge on the heaviest volume in many months shows

Daktronics, Inc. (DAKT) is experiencing increasing earnings estimates and has a history of earnings surprises, which the chart reflects.

Background

Daktronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of various display systems for sport, business, and transportation applications. Its products include small indoor and outdoor scoreboards, computer-programmable displays, large screen video displays, control systems, and timing and sound systems.

Full Analysis

From an earnings standpoint, DAKT looks quite strong. The company has exceeded the consensus estimate in each of the past three quarters by an average margin of about 14%. This year's estimates have also increased by about 3% over the past 30 days.

Technically, DAKT is looking quite strong. Notice the almost uninterrupted uptrend that has occurred over the past six months. The 50-day moving average was test a couple of times, and even undercut briefly, but both times were followed by strong breakouts on high volume. Notice how all of the big volume days occurred on up days. The stock looks poised for another leg higher as the recent upsurge on the heaviest volume in many months shows.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

#1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions.

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(SEIC) - company met or topped the Street's earnings estimate for 10 straight quarters—surprising to the upside for nine quarters

SEI Investments Company (SEIC) met or exceeded analysts' earnings estimates for 10 straight quarters—surprising to the upside for nine quarters. Earnings per share are projected to grow 14.6% over the next 3-5 years. Analysts have been upping their earnings estimates for SEIC. The company is currently yielding 0.50% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 0.45%.

Full Analysis

SEI Investments Company is a leading global provider of outsourced investment business solutions. The company operates in five segments: private banking and trust, investment advisors, enterprises, money managers and investments in new businesses. SEIC's innovative solutions help corporations, financial institutions, financial advisors and affluent families create and manage wealth.

SEIC exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for the past three quarters by an average margin of 8.5%. The company met or topped the Street's earnings estimate for 10 straight quarters-surprising to the upside for nine quarters. Earnings per share grew 13.7% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow by a slightly higher margin going forward-14.6% over the next 3-5 years.

On May 2, 2006, SEIC reported first-quarter profits of $54.9 million, or 54 cents per share, compared with profits of $43.7 million, or 42 cents per share in the prior-year period. With analysts projecting 48 cents per share, SEIC surprised by 12.5%. Revenues surged an impressive 49.2% to $277.1 million, which included a $66 million gain from LSV Asset Management due to the consolidation of its operations with SEIC. The company increased revenues for the past three years while growing profits for nine years running.

The consensus earnings estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 10.0% and 9.6%, respectively, over the past 60 days. Profit forecasts for the full years of 2006 and 2007 jumped 7.8% and 10.1%, respectively, over the same time period. Two analysts covering the stock submitted upward earnings revisions for this quarter and next quarter. Three analysts did so for this year and next.

Increasing cash flows from operating activities enabled the Board of Directors at SEIC to declare a dividend of 12 cents per share on May 24, 2006. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.50% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.45%. SEIC's return on equity is quite impressive and nearly doubles that of the industry average-47% compared to 24%.

SEIC is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 22.0% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

#1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions.

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