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Friday, June 23, 2006

(PCU) - Earnings per share grew an eye-popping 96.7% over the past five years

Southern Copper Corporation (PCU), first presented as a Value stock late last year, continues to impress. Analysts' earnings estimates have been trending higher. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.6, compared to 3.9 for the market. PCU's return on equity crushes that of the industry average-48% compared to 30%.

Full Analysis

Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, processing and producing copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold and lead. The company is the largest mining corporation of Mexico and Peru, and the fifth-largest copper mining company in the world.

PCU was featured as a Value stock on Dec 29, 2005. Nearly six months later, the company is still a Zacks #1 Rank thanks to the favorable global demand for copper and rising metals prices.

The company exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in seven of the past nine quarters by an average margin of 17.9%. Earnings per share grew an eye-popping 96.7% over the past five years.

On Apr 26, 2006, PCU achieved first-quarter earnings per share of $2.86-a 22.2% increase when compared to the prior-year period. However, the company's profits came in slightly under the Street's estimate of $2.90.

Analysts' estimates have been on the rise for PCU. Profit forecasts for this quarter and next quarter jumped 14.7% and 16.8%, respectively, over the past 90 days. Consensus estimates for this year and next year increased 23.0% and 31.2%, respectively, over the past three months.

With copper production being the company's principal business, management intends to grow the company by focusing on this key segment. It plans to do so by optimizing productivity at its existing facilities, expanding capacity and exercising rigorous cost-control measures. Favorable growth prospects in China, due to its increased level of industrial production, should keep PCU moving forward. In addition, the U.S. manufacturing sector should grow as well, leading to even more demand for copper.

PCU is currently trading at a valuation of 7.4x trailing 12-month earnings and at 5.9x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.4x trailing 12-month earnings and at 15.2x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.6, compared to 3.9 for the market. PCU's return on equity crushes that of the industry average—48% compared to 30%.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(IFOX) - Earnings per share came in at five cents, 400% above the consensus estimate

Infocrossing, Inc. (IFOX) has met or exceeded earnings estimates in six out of the past seven quarters, with the most recent surprise coming in at 400%. Both analysts covering the stock raised their numbers for 2006. This year's estimates have risen 11.1% over the past 90 days, while next year's estimates have jumped 13.1% over the same time frame. The stock is trading at 24.1x next year's estimates, slightly above the long-term growth rate of 22%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 1.09.

Full Analysis

Infocrossing, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide information technology (IT) outsourcing solutions to commercial and government enterprises primarily in the United States. It offers mainframe outsourcing services and nonmainframe services.

The company's mainframe outsourcing solutions include mainframes management. Infocrossing's nonmainframe services and solutions comprise midrange systems management, open systems management, business process outsourcing, email security services, and business continuity.

IFOX released an excellent first-quarter earnings report. Revenues reached a record $55.9 million an increase of $18.4 million compared with revenues of $37.5 million for the first quarter of 2005. These results were at the high end of the Company's previously provided guidance of revenues between $55-$56 million for the quarter.

Earnings per share came in at five cents, 400% above the consensus estimate. The company added fifteen clients for the new Medicare Part D service, bringing the total client base to 60 managed care companies that are now using the Company's Medicare Part D enrollment and reconciliation services.

"We are very pleased with our results for the first quarter of 2006," stated Zach Lonstein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Company. "We achieved our revenue, EBITDA and net income objectives for the quarter and made significant progress in integrating (i)Structure to realize the forecasted sales and cost synergies of the acquisition. We have fully integrated our sales, marketing and client services organizations to drive greater demand for our services, close existing opportunities in our sales pipeline and cross sell our expanded capabilities to our existing client base.

Since January 1, 2006 we have signed new revenue commitments totaling $25,100,000 over contract terms up to five years in length," Mr. Lonstein continued. "Furthermore, we have moved aggressively to achieve the forecasted $9,000,000 to $11,000,000 in cost savings expected to be realized in 2006.

The company has met or exceeded earnings estimates in six out of the past seven quarters, with the most recent surprise coming in at 400%. Both analysts covering the stock raised their numbers for 2006. This year's estimates have risen 11.1% over the past 90 days, while next year's estimates have jumped 13.1% over the same time frame. The stock is trading at 24.1x next year's estimates, slightly above the long-term growth rate of 22%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 1.09.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(MWRK) - Mothers Work is expecting great things

Full Analysis

It's been almost two months since we last looked at Mothers Work as a Momentum Stock of the Day. Since then, the market as a whole has declined 4.3% as measured by the S&P 500. And MWRK? It's up a very healthy 16.3% in that same time frame. With over a month before third quarter results will be released, MWRK is setting new 52-week highs. Why are investors so anxious to push MWRK upward ahead of the third quarter report? A couple of reasons. First, May same-store sales, reported on Jun 1, were up 5.5% and the company said it expected to meet or beat its third-quarter guidance. Second, MWRK has a history of positive earnings surprises, having reported positive surprises the last five quarters in a row, and in seven of the last eight quarters. These haven't been small surprises either. The last two quarters have seen triple-digit surprises.

Technical Analysis

The technical picture for MWRK is rosy as well. Wednesday's sharp move to the upside came on very heavy volume, always a good sign. There's no real resistance until you get to $38.00 and probably not significant resistance until the $40 mark. Given the power of the current uptrend, the all time high at $43.00 set on Nov 7, 2002 is not out of sight.

MWRK is a fine example of how the Momentum principal of ‘Buying High, Selling Higher' works even in down markets. Obviously some investors will be reluctant to buy a stock making new highs, and especially one that is already up 157% for the year. On the other hand, when MWRK was in a downtrend, from November 2002 to October 2005, the stock lost 84% of its value. So the current uptrend is neither excessive in price or length of time.

Background

Mothers Work is a specialty retailer and manufacturer of maternity clothing. They operate stores under the Mothers Work, MimiMaternity, A Pea in the Pod, Motherhood Maternity and Maternity Works concepts, offering a full range of career, casual and special occasion maternity wear.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(JCI) - company's building efficiency and power solutions businesses, up 78.6% and 28.5%, respectively

Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) met or topped the Street's earnings estimate in 16 straight quarters. The company recently beat the consensus estimate by 9.2% in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. As a result, JCI revised its profit forecast upward for the fiscal year. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 12.4% over the next 3-5 years. The company is currently yielding 1.4% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 1.6%.

Full Analysis

Johnson Controls, Inc. engages in the building efficiency and automotive supplies businesses. The company offers innovative automotive interiors as well as products and services that optimize energy use and improve comfort and security in buildings. JCI also provides batteries for automobiles and hybrid electric vehicles, along with systems engineering and service expertise.

JCI topped the Street's earnings estimate in the past three quarters by an average margin of 4.5%. Furthermore, the company met or exceeded estimates in 16 consecutive quarters. During that time frame, JCI surprised to the upside on 13 occasions. Earnings per share grew 14.1% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow 12.4% over the next 3-5 years.

On Apr 19, 2006, JCI reported second-quarter fiscal 2006 earnings per share of 83 cents-topping the consensus estimate by 9.2%. Revenues increased 18.8% to a record $8.2 billion, compared to $6.9 billion in the prior-year period. The company's building efficiency and power solutions businesses, up 78.6% and 28.5%, respectively, fueled JCI's strong quarterly revenue results.

As a result of the company's strong second quarter, JCI boosted its fiscal 2006 earnings per share outlook. The company now expects profits between $5.25 and $5.35 per share, versus its previous guidance between $5.00 and $5.15. Revenue expectations remained unchanged at approximately $32 billion.

In December 2005, JCI completed its acquisition of York International Corporation, a global supplier of heating, ventilating, air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment and services. This allows the company to depend less on the auto industry and to truly transform itself into more of a diversified industrial firm.

Profit forecasts for this quarter and next quarter increased 7.0% and 3.2%, respectively, over the past 90 days. Consensus estimates for this year and next year jumped 5.0% and 3.0%, respectively, over the past three months.

On May 23, 2006, The Board of Directors at JCI declared a quarterly cash dividend of 28 cents per common share of stock. The company has a current dividend yield of 1.4% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.6%. JCI's return on equity is slightly higher than that of the industry average—14% compared to 13%.

JCI is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 22.0% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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Thursday, June 22, 2006

(VLO) - estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 23.2% and 9.1%, respectively, over the past 60 days

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, announced the highest first-quarter earnings in its history back in late-April. The company increased revenues for the past seven years. Analysts have become increasingly optimistic about the company's future earnings potential. VLO has a price-to-book ratio of 2.3, compared to 3.9 for the market. Its return on equity of 33% dwarfs that of the industry average.

Full Analysis

Valero Energy Corporation is the largest refiner in North America, with a throughput capacity of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day. A marketing leader, the company has approximately 5,000 retail sites branded as Valero, Diamond Shamrock, Ultramar, Beacon and Shamrock.

VLO met or topped analysts' earnings expectations in 10 of the past 11 quarters. During that time frame the company beat the Street nine times, met once and missed once. Earnings per share grew a robust 50.8% over the past five years.

While VLO's earnings in its most recent quarter were up year-over-year, they came up short of analysts' estimates. Profits in the first quarter of 2006 amounted to $849 million, or $1.32 per share-38.2% better than the company's prior-year period. They were the highest first-quarter earnings in VLO's history. The Street was calling for $1.46 per share. Operating income jumped 66.7%.

Bill Klesse, the company's CEO, expects the remainder of the year to be even better, with the refining environment remaining strong. Analysts are apparently on Klesse's side. Consensus estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 23.2% and 9.1%, respectively, over the past 60 days. Five analysts submitted upward revisions for this quarter while three did so for next quarter. For this year and next year, analysts upped their profit forecasts by 8.0% and 4.4%, respectively, over the same time period. Eight analysts pushed their estimates upward for this year while six followed suit for next year.

The company's $8 billion acquisition of Premcor made VLO the largest refiner in North America. It added four refineries and 790,000 Bbl/d in capacity. This marked the most recent acquisition in a long line of transactions that have enabled the company to achieve the title of largest refiner. Management's ability to achieve profitable growth through a strategy of acquisitions has been very impressive. The company increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past seven years. Profits have grown for the past three—most recently by an eye-popping 99.7% in 2005.

Despite the company's strong performance, it is currently trading at a valuation of 8.2x trailing 12-month earnings and at 7.1x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.2x trailing 12-month earnings and at 15.1x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. VLO has a price-to-book ratio of 2.3, compared to 3.9 for the market.

Strong cash flows from operating activities enabled VLO to increase its quarterly dividend by 33.3% on Apr 27, 2006. The company currently yields 0.56%. Furthermore, VLO's return on equity crushes that of the industry average-33% compared to 14%.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(FDS) - exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for the past five quarters

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) recently reported record revenues in the third quarter of fiscal 2006. The company increased revenues and grew profits for the past nine years. The Board of Directors recently increased its quarterly dividend by 20%. FDS has a return on equity of 28% compared to the industry average of 17%.

Full Analysis

FactSet Research Systems, Inc. is a leading provider of global financial and economic data and analytics to the investment community worldwide. Combining more than 200 databases into its own dedicated online service, the company also provides the tools to download, combine and manipulate financial data for investment analysis.

FDS exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for the past five quarters by an average margin of 4.9%. Earnings per share grew 21.3% over the past five years and are expected to increase 17.7% over the next 3-5 years. The industry is projected to grow 15%.

On Jun 20, 2006, third-quarter fiscal 2006 earnings per share came in at a penny better than what the Street was projecting. The company reported profits of 40 cents per share. Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2005, FDS's earnings improved by 14.3%. Revenues hit an all-time high, increasing 24.6% to $98.8 million. Subscriptions jumped $19.1 million during the quarter and totaled $399.4 million as of May 31, 2006.

For the first nine months of fiscal 2006, profits are up 12.1% and revenues rose 22.7%. FDS increased revenues for the past nine years, while expanding gross margins for the past eight. The company grew profits for the past nine years-most recently by 23.8% in fiscal 2005.

Based on the company's stellar third quarter, it issued fourth-quarter revenue guidance above analysts' estimates. FDS expects revenues between $102 million and $105 million. The company just opened a new European headquarters located in London on Jun 19, 2006. Revenues in the company's European and Pacific Rim operations grew by 35.8% and 31.7%, respectively, in the third quarter. FDS's extensive database agreements that it currently has in place makes it extremely difficult for others to enter their niche market. Furthermore, its 95% retention levels are nothing to sneeze at.

The Board of Directors at FDS boosted its quarterly dividend 20% from five cents to six cents per share. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.52% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.56%. FDS's return on equity far surpasses that of the industry average—28% compared to 17%.

FDS is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 22.0% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(AU) - company reported an excellent first quarter on the heels of strong gold prices

AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) is enjoying the fruits of soaring gold prices. Earnings estimates have been soaring for both this year and next year. 2006 estimates have vaulted 30% over the past 60 days to $1.92 per share, while 2007 estimates have jumped 34% over the same time frame. The stock is currently trading at 16.1x next year's estimates of $2.69, slightly below the long-term growth rate of 17.38%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.93.

Full Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Limited operates as a gold producer worldwide. It engages in open-pit and underground mining and surface metallurgical operations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania and the United States.

AU also sells silver, uranium oxide and sulphuric acid. The company has strategic alliances with Red 5 Limited for exploration activities in Siana project; an exploration alliance with Eurasia plc for prospects being identified in the Chita and Buyat regions of Russia; and an exploration alliance with Redstar Gold Corporation.

The company reported an excellent first quarter on the heels of strong gold prices. Strong participation in the gold price rally, with the price received $69/oz higher than that of the previous quarter and only 2% lower than the average spot price, resulted in a much improved financial performance for the first quarter of 2006, lifting adjusted headline earnings 110% to $86m. The average price for the quarter of $554/oz was $69/oz or 14% higher than the average price of $485/oz in the final quarter of 2005.

In addition, other factors remain favourable to gold. For all the sustained recovery in the U.S. currency over the past year, currency market commentators continue to call for a weaker U.S. dollar during the year ahead. Oil prices remain firm and rising, aided by on-going conflict in Iraq. The investment sector remains strong and official holders of gold continue to provide good news for the metal.

CEO Bobby Godsell said, "I'm pleased with our strong financial performance during the quarter and with our continuing cost management in the face of strong operating currencies."

Earnings estimates have been soaring for both this year and next year. 2006 estimates have vaulted 30% over the past 60 days to $1.92 per share, while 2007 estimates have jumped 34% over the same time frame. The stock is currently trading at 16.1x next year's estimates of $2.69, slightly below the long-term growth rate of 17.38%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.93.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research

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(NWL) - Newell Rubbermaid - stock looks capable of moving higher and setting new all-time highs

Full Analysis

NWL is a month away from reporting results for its Jun 2006 quarter, and anticipation is high. The company has returned a positive earnings surprise for the last 10 quarters, including the eye-popping 292% positive earnings surprise in the Mch 2006 report, released on Apr 27. NWL reported at that time EPS of 47 cents per share vs. 32 cents last year and a 292% positive surprise. Income rose 96% from the year earlier quarter to $129.9 million.

Technical Analysis

The year 2002 was the last time that NWL outperformed the general market, but this might be their year. Year to date, NWL is up about 8.41% vs. the nearly unchanged S&P 500. Given the string of positive earnings surprises, NWL will likely challenge the 52-week high of $28.63, set this year on May 8. That upthrust was powered by the Apr 27 release of earnings, so it's likely that the next move up will come when the Jun earnings are released in late-July.

As mentioned, NWL has underperformed the general market for a long time, but it has been in a gradual uptrend since bottoming out on Oct 26, 2004 at $19.06. Momentum trading is all about buying good stocks as the market is recognizing that improvement. Another positive earnings surprise might just do the trick and earn NWL some market recognition for its earnings improvement.

Background

Newell Rubbermaid, Inc. is a global manufacturer and full-service marketer of name-brand consumer products serving the needs of volume purchasers, including discount stores and warehouse clubs, home centers and hardware stores, and office superstores and contract stationers. The company's multi-product offering consists of name-brand consumer products in six business segments: Storage, Organization & Cleaning; Home Decor; Office Products; Infant/Juvenile Care & Play; Food Preparation, Cooking & Serving and Hardware & Tools.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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Wednesday, June 21, 2006

(WCC) - Wesco - stock's PEG multiple is a reasonable at 0.92

Analysts recently boosted their full-year earnings projections on WESCO International, Inc. (WCC), a Zacks #1 Rank stock. The new consensus estimate of $3.70 per share is two cents higher than a week ago and 25 cents higher than two months ago. The trend for 2007 earnings is also positive with the current estimate of $4.41 representing a two-month, 32-cent increase.
Full Analysis

At first glance, WESCO does not come across as a company that would excite growth investors. WCC provides electrical construction products and electrical and industrial MRO (maintenance, repair and operating) supplies. Over the past 20 years, the electrical wholesale distribution industry has grown at an approximate 5% compound annual rate.

However, a closer look reveals a company that is firing on all cylinders. Over the past five years, WESCO has generated a 47% growth rate. Looking forward, analysts foresee 52% growth this year and 19% growth in 2007. Over the next three to five years, analysts projected an annualized growth rate of 17%.

History suggests that analysts could be underestimating the company's growth prospects. WCC has topped earnings expectations for 13 consecutive quarters. The average margin of surprise has been eight cents. Most recently, the company exceeded first-quarter forecasts by 16 cents with profits of 86 cents per share.

WCC is achieving this growth through both market share gains and improved margins. The company's strategy for gaining market share is multi-faceted and includes a focus on national accounts and large construction projects, improving supply chain management for customers' indirect purchases, localized sales and marketing efforts and acquisitions. Margin enhancement is being achieved through cost-cutting measures and improved productivity. WCC said it increased operating margins by 220 basis points in the first-quarter of 2006.

Analysts seem to believe that the company is continuing to fire on all cylinders. Within the last seven days, the consensus estimate for second quarter earnings was raised by a penny to 94 cents per share. The consensus estimate for full-year earnings was raised by two cents to $3.70.

Although investors might expect to pay a premium for this type of company, WCC trades at less than 16x this year's earnings. The stock's PEG multiple is also reasonable at 0.92.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(NOK) - Nokia - consensus earnings estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 16.0% and 10.7%, respectively

Nokia Corporation (NOK) recently announced that it will combine its network equipment units with those of Siemens AG (SI) to form an entity with $20 billion in annual sales. The company beat analysts' first-quarter estimates by 25.0% on April 20 and increased its global market share to 35%. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 11.8% over the next 3-5 years. Consensus estimates are trending higher for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. The company is currently yielding 1.6%.

Full Analysis

Nokia Corporation, headquartered in Espoo, Finland, operates in four business segments: mobile phones, multimedia, enterprise solutions and networks. The company is named after the Nokia River in southern Finland.

On Apr 20, 2006, NOK surprised to the upside by 25.0% when it reported first-quarter earnings per share of 30 cents. The Street was calling for 24 cents. The company posted profits of 25 cents per share in the prior-year period, marking a 20.0% improvement for this quarter. Revenues soared 28.4% to 9.5 billion euros ($11.73 billion). The company announced that its global market share now amounts to 35%, a 3% jump when compared to the previous quarter.

NOK increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past four years. Earnings per share grew 9.3% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow by a larger margin going forward—11.8% over the next 3-5 years.

The consensus earnings estimates for this quarter and next quarter increased 16.0% and 10.7%, respectively, over the past 90 days. Six analysts submitted upward revisions for this quarter while eight followed suit for next quarter. Profit forecasts for this year and next year rose 8.6% and 9.9%, respectively, over the same time period. Eight analysts revised their estimates upward.

On Jun 19, 2006, NOK and SI announced their intention to combine the Networks Business Group of NOK and the carrier-related operations of SI into a new company, which will be named Nokia Siemens Networks. The venture should realize a 4% to 5% reduction in the cost of manufacturing telecoms equipment. Furthermore, the costs in the services business should fall by 2% to 3% due to reduced overheads and better utilization. The combination would create an entity with $20 billion in annual sales. Nokia Siemens Networks will rank third in the industry, behind the planned merger of Alcatel (ALA) and Lucent Technologies, Inc. (LU) and LM Ericsson Telephone Company (ERICY) after its purchase of Marconi Corporation. If the merger passes the necessary regulation hurdles, market share is expected to be built in Asia—primarily in China and India.

On Mar 30, 2006, NOK announced a dividend of EUR 0.37 per share for 2005 at its annual meeting. The company has a current dividend yield of 1.6% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.7%. NOK's return on equity more than quadruples that of the industry average—29% compared to 7%. This makes it very clear that NOK has been more profitable than its peers.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(TSH) - Teche Holding Company - Analysts' earnings estimates have been climbing upward

Teche Holding Company (TSH), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, announced record quarterly earnings per share on Apr 19, 2006. Furthermore, the company's results bettered analysts' expectations by 32.3%. Consensus earnings estimates have been on the rise for both this fiscal year and next. TSH boosted its dividend for 13 consecutive quarters and is currently yielding 2.5%. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.6, compared to 3.9 for the market.

Full Analysis

Teche Holding Company operates as the holding company for Teche Federal Bank. The bank provides checking, savings, money market and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. TSH also originates residential and commercial real estate and consumer loans.

When TSH reported second-quarter fiscal 2006 results on Apr 19, 2006, shareholders were pleased to hear that earnings hit a new record. Profits for the quarter came in at $2.0 million, or 86 cents per share, topping the Street's estimate of 65 cents by an impressive 32.3%. When compared to the prior-year period, earnings were up a stellar 30.3%. Net interest income jumped 11.8% to $5.7 million.

For the first six months of fiscal 2006, the company achieved profits of $3.6 million, or $1.55 per share, versus $3.0 million, or $1.27 per share, for the first six months of fiscal 2005. Net-interest income rose 11.0% to $11.1 million.

Analysts' earnings estimates have been climbing upward for TSH. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2006 is currently $2.98 per share—11.2% greater than the consensus of just seven days ago. Looking ahead to fiscal 2007, profit forecasts are $3.01 per share. This represents a 7.5% increase over the past week.

On May 25, 2006, the Board of Directors at TSH announced a quarterly cash dividend of 28 cents per common share of stock. The company's previous quarterly dividend was 27 cents per share. Furthermore, the dividend marked a 17% increase when compared to the dividend paid to shareholders at the same time last year. The company is currently yielding 2.5%. Since Jun 12, 2003, TSH boosted its dividend for thirteen consecutive quarters.

TSH announced a new stock buyback program in late March after completing its previous share repurchase plan. The new program will allow the company to repurchase approximately 5%, or an additional 113,000 shares, of its common stock.

The company is currently trading at a valuation of 14.9x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 15.1x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. TSH has a price-to-book ratio of only 1.6, compared to 3.9 for the market. The company's return on equity is slightly higher than the industry average-10% compared to 9%.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(CLMT) - Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP looks quite capable of moving higher and setting new all-time highs

Full Analysis

On May 10, the company reported earnings for the March 2006 quarter of 57 cents per share, a positive 11.8% surprise over analysts' consensus estimates. Sales were reported at $397.7 million and income was $7.46 million. Since this is a newly-listed company there was no comparable year-earlier data.

Technical Analysis

It's been a short and impressive ride for CLMT since its listing in January of this year. It ended its first day of trading on Jan 26 at $21.75. Since then, the ride has been pretty much straight up with Monday's close of $33.37 representing a gain of 53% for the year. The stock has sold off somewhat from its all-time high of $36.94 set on Jun 12, but the strong overall uptrend remains in place.

Given the generally poor overall market conditions in the last month, CLMT has held up quite well. The chart looks healthy and with several months before the next earnings report, this stock looks quite capable of moving higher and setting new all-time highs.

Background

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP is a leading independent producer of high-quality, specialty hydrocarbon products in North America. Their business is organized into two segments: specialty products and fuel products. In their specialty products segment, they process crude oil into a wide variety of customized lubricating oils, solvents and waxes. Their specialty products are sold to domestic and international customers who purchase them primarily as raw material components for basic industrial, consumer and automotive goods. In their fuel products segment, they process crude oil into a variety of fuel and fuel-related products, including unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel. In connection with their production of specialty products and fuel products, they also produce asphalt and a limited number of other by-products.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006

(GES) - recently reported a 20% increase in May same-store sales

Guess?, Inc. (GES) continues to impress analysts. The company's strong sales results for May caused six analysts to raise their profit forecasts. The current estimate for 2006 earnings is 3% above the month-old forecast.

Full Analysis

Guess? recently reported a 20% increase in May same-store sales. Based on this performance, the company anticipates total revenues in the second quarter to rise 25%. (The previous forecast called for an increase in the high teens.) In addition, GES is seeing margins improve. As a result, the company now expects second-quarter profits to increase between five cents and seven cents above its prior guidance.

Analysts quickly adjusted their projections in response to the news. Since the issuance of the May results, six analysts raised their forecasts, causing the second-quarter consensus estimate to jump to 19 cents per share. Analysts also upped their full-year projections to $1.83 per share.

Where the changes in estimates really become impressive is when the current estimates are compared against the 60-day old estimates. The current second-quarter forecast is 58% higher than the forecast of two months ago. The current full-year estimate is 17% higher.

As bullish as these trends are, the current consensus estimates may still be conservative. GES has topped expectations for 11 consecutive quarters. The average margin of surprise over this period is six cents per share.

The steady stream of good news about this company has been rewarding for GES shareholders. Since we originally featured the stock on Dec 15, GES has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 700 basis points. A recent pullback in the stock's price, caused by the market's overall volatility, has brought its PEG multiple down to 1.0 - a potential discount given analysts' history of underestimating the company's earnings performance.

Guess designs casual apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. The apparel reflects what the company refers to as the American lifestyle and European fashion sensibilities. The lines include full collections of denim and cotton clothing, including tops, bottoms, skirts, dresses and jackets.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(JTX) - recently announced a 50% increase in the company's quarterly cash dividend

Driven by the preparation of 3.66 million tax returns, Jackson Hewitt Tax Service, Inc. (JTX) recently reported solid fourth-quarter and fiscal 2006 financial results. The company topped the Street's earnings estimate in three straight quarters. Earnings per share are projected to grow 20.7% over the next 3-5 years for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. The Board of Directors increased its quarterly dividend by 50% in early-June.

Full Analysis

Jackson Hewitt Tax Service, Inc. provides computerized preparation of federal and state personal income tax returns. JTX is the second-largest tax preparation service company in the United States, with over 5,400 franchised and company-owned offices in 49 states and the District of Columbia.

For the past three quarters, JTX exceeded analysts' earnings expectations by an average margin of 10.4%. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow by a healthy 21% over the next 3-5 years, while the industry is expected to grow by 17%.

On Jun 1, 2006, JTX posted fiscal 2006 fourth-quarter profits of $58 million, or $1.62 per share, which beat the Street's estimate by three cents. When compared to the prior-year period, the company's earnings were up a solid 20.0%. Revenues increased 15.3% to $165 million from $143.1 million in fourth quarter of fiscal 2005.

For the entire fiscal year, revenues grew to $275.3 million from $232.5 million in the previous year. The number of tax returns prepared by the company rose 10.2% to 3.66 million. Profits saw an increase of 16.0%.

Michael Lister, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at JTX, commented that fiscal 2006 results were fueled by the company's additional locations, new themed advertising and enhanced products and services. Furthermore, the momentum should continue as his company begins planning for fiscal 2007.

The Board of Directors at JTX recently announced a 50% increase in the company's quarterly cash dividend to 12 cents per share. The dividend will be paid on Jul 14, 2006, to shareholders of record as of Jun 28, 2006. The company is currently yielding 1.0%.

The consensus earnings estimate for fiscal 2007 increased 6.0% to $1.95 per share over the past 60 days. Analysts upped their profit forecasts for fiscal 2008 by 11.5% to $2.32 per share over the past two months.

JTX's return on equity exceeds that of the industry average—17% compared to 10%. The company is doing a good job with the money invested by its shareholder base.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(BSC) - chalk up another positive earnings surprise

When The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (BSC) was first featured as a Value stock back on Mar 21, 2006, the company was a Zacks #1 Rank. The company has maintained this coveted status and its history of topping the Street's estimate is intact. BSC exceeded the consensus earnings estimate for 16 consecutive quarters. Furthermore, analysts remain optimistic about the company's future prospects. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.5.

Full Analysis

The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. is the parent company of Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc., a leading global investment banking, securities trading and brokerage firm. The company operates in three segments: capital markets, global clearing services and wealth management.

When BSC was first highlighted as a Value stock on Mar 21, 2006, the company had exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for an impressive 16 straight quarters. Well, chalk up another positive earnings surprise. The company beat the Street by 20.0% on Jun 15, 2006, when it reported second-quarter fiscal 2006 profits of $3.72 per share. When compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2005, earnings were up 45.3%. EPS grew 26.4% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow 10.7% over the next 3-5 years.

Net revenues for the second quarter amounted to a record $2.5 billion, up 31.6% from the $1.9 billion achieved in the prior-year period. Broken down by business segment, revenues in the Capital Markets and Global Clearing Services groups jumped 40% and 5%, respectively, while Wealth Management lost 3%, versus the second quarter of fiscal 2005.

Analysts continue to be increasingly optimistic about BSC. The consensus earnings estimate for this quarter and next quarter increased 3.5% and 4.9%, respectively, when compared to the consensus of 90 days ago. Seven analysts upped their estimates for this quarter and next quarter. Profit forecasts for this year and next year have risen 4.8% and 3.8%, respectively, over the past three months. Eights analysts submitted upward revisions for 2006 and seven did so for 2007.

The company is currently trading at a valuation of 10.2x trailing 12-month earnings and at 10.3x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.4x trailing 12-month earnings and at 15.2x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. BSC has a price-to-book ratio of only 1.5, compared to 3.9 for the market. The company has a PEG ratio of 0.96.

BSC has a current dividend yield of 0.85% and a return on equity of 18%. The industry's ROE is 14%, illustrating BSC's higher level of profitability.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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(VOL) - clearly a strong breakout in a difficult general market - bucking a general market trend

Full Analysis

VOL reported a 78.8% positive earnings surprise on Jun 8, 2006. EPS for the quarter was 59 cents vs. 29 cents in the same quarter last year. Sales grew 9.3% to $593.8 million and income jumped 82.2% to $9.11 million over the previous year.
Technical Analysis

Before the positive earnings report was announced, VOL had spent nearly two years churning back and forth in a trading range that extended from a high of $31.51 to $17.62. Since the report was released, the stock has been moving sharply higher, gaining 42.7%. Trading volume has been considerably higher than normal as well.

This is clearly a strong breakout in a difficult general market. A stock bucking a general market trend, breaking out to the upside from a long sideways congestion area. Furthermore, the stock took out 2000 highs on the way up. When you see a stock breaking out like this, particularly when confirmed by such heavy trading volume, this is a graphical illustration of a change in the supply and demand factors of the underlying company. Clearly VOL has yet to find a new balance point. For the time being the stock is more likely to move higher than to turn around.

Background

Volt Information Sciences, Inc. is a leading provider of Staffing Services and Telecommunications and Information Solutions for its Fortune 100 customer base. The businesses of its three tele-communications and information solutions segments include tele-communications engineering, construction, installation and central office services, telecommunications information systems and services, primarily advanced operator services and telephone directory publishing and pre-press production.

Note: The Zacks Rank is a very sensitive indicator that can change frequently for an individual stock. The ranks are updated every Monday morning on Zacks.com. As such, it is prudent to check the site for the latest Zacks Rank on the stocks highlighted in this section. Simply click the link for the stock or enter the symbol in the ticker entry box in the upper left hand corner of the web site.

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Monday, June 19, 2006

(CSG) - Cadbury Schweppes is a top buy - Consumer Staples Outperform Market

Taking the rollercoaster ride that has been the stock market recently, we started to consider sectors that tend to perform more strongly in times such as these. Senior Consumer Staples analyst Steven Ralston, CFA helped us understand what might be solid plays among companies within his coverage.

History shows that consumer non-durables tend to outperform during market declines. Has this been the case in this most recent market downturn?

Stocks in the Consumer Staples sector have traditionally performed better than the stock market - especially cyclical companies - during market declines, and the recent correction has been no exception. The fundamental explanation is that food, beverage, household products, and cosmetics companies manufacture and market brand name consumable products, most of which are considered essential to daily life, such as food, drink, toothpaste, deodorants, toilet paper, etc. Since product demand is relatively stable, the companies should report earnings in line with expectations and, hence, the stocks outperformed.


Which industries have performed better than the S&P 500?

Since the end of April, the S&P 500 has declined from 1,310 to 1,251, or 4.5%. During that same time period, the soft drink companies - Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) - have rallied 2.0%, while the large-cap food group remained flattish with a minor 0.1% gain. Interestingly, the drug store group increased 1.1%. The tobacco industry and the cosmetics & household products group posted minor declines of 0.8% and 2.4%, respectively. Interestingly, the two companies in my coverage that most dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 during this time period were IPO's from last year: Volcom (VLCM) and Diamond Foods (DMND), down 16.4% and 19.7%, respectively.

Is it time to overweight, underweight or keep neutral one's exposure to these stocks?

In my opinion, the majority of the stock market decline is over and, hence, I would neutralize exposure to the Consumer Staples sector. There are indications that we are near the end of this Fed tightening cycle, and the cyclical companies should not be negatively impacted by a profit recession in the next two reported quarters.

What is your top Buy at this time?

Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) is my favorite Buy at this time. Despite a challenging cost environment, management was able to increase the operating margin by 30 basis points in 2005, an impressive feat in the Consumer Staples sector that has had many companies reporting disappointing results due to commodity cost pressures. Management has implemented two plans (the Fuel for Growth Plan and the Smart Variety Plan) in order to better focus the company and to improve margins. Non-core businesses, such as European Beverages, have been divested and the integration of its Adams Confectionery acquisition has been completed. With tangible operational improvement being demonstrated by the company's financial results, the stock is rated a Buy.

Do you have any Sells you'd care to mention?

The tobacco industry has had a couple of negative litigation developments within the last few months that seem to have put a ceiling on the stocks. In late March, the Supreme Court of the United States refused to hear an appeal in the Boeken case, in which a two-pack-a-day smoker who died of cancer was awarded a $50 million settlement. Therefore, Altria (MO) paid the award despite the company's claim that the judgment is excessive. In addition, on April 21st, a California appeals court upheld a $28 million award against Philip Morris USA in a case of a smoker who died three years ago after she was diagnosed with lung cancer. The ruling includes punitive damages that are 33 times greater than the compensatory damage of $850,000.

These two rulings will entice lawyers to file additional suits against the tobacco companies in order to receive uncapped awards. As a result, the rating on Altria is a Sell. We maintain that rating despite the Supreme Court's decision on May 30th to hear the Williams case from Oregon, which involves an actual damage award of $821,485 plus $79.5 million in punitive damages.

What's your outlook for the second half of 2006 with the consumer non-durables group?

The next group rotation decision probably should occur in the fourth quarter when the Consumer Non-Durable companies traditionally outperform as some technology stocks pre-announce and disappoint near the end of the year. Consumer stocks, and especially food stocks, come into favor with their attributes of modest revenue growth and EPS growth bolstered by share repurchases. However, stock selection within the Consumer Staples sector will be key. Avoid food stocks with high debt levels, like Sell-rated Del Monte Foods (DLM). Concentrate on high quality companies with relatively high dividend yields (at least over 2.5%) and low valuations, like Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) and Anheuser-Busch Companies (BUD).

Steven Ralston, CFA is a Zacks analyst covering a variety of companies in various industries of the Consumer Staples sector.

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Zacks Equity Research employs 50 stock analysts who are experts in the industries they cover. In these articles you will discover our analyst's current insights on key industries in the news along with their favorite stocks to buy and sell now.

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(UNH) - (CRR) - "Paid-to-Play" Portfolio

Richard Rhodes, editor of The Rhodes Report newsletter, believes there is no question that the Fed will increase rates at the June 28-29 meeting. This featured expert does question whether it will be a 25 basis point move or 50 basis points. Read Rhodes' commentary to find out why he says that a 50 basis point bump is the best of all worlds for the capital markets. Then take a look at a couple of companies from the Paid-to-Play Portfolio.
May CPI was "HOT"

The headline CPI figure rose by +0.4%, which was boosted by gasoline prices and owners' equivalent rent increases. The core rate increased by +0.3% for the 3rd month running, which raised the year/year change to +2.4% from +2.3% versus a YE-2005 rate of +2.2%.

Richard Rhodes and his team simply think this solidifies their viewpoint that rates will rise at the June 28-29 meeting; the question is then one of whether it is a 25 basis point move or 50 bps. Rhodes and his team think the Fed would like to get the microscopic attention off themselves, and thus Rhodes thinks a 50 bps rise in two weeks and an accompanying communique stating their work is done for the time being is the best of all worlds for the capital markets.

Holdings in the "Paid-to-Play" Portfolio include:

United Healthcare (UNH) offers health care coverage and related services to help people achieve improved health and well-being through all stages of life. The company's products and services reflect a number of core capabilities, including medical information management, health benefit administration, care coordination, risk assessment and pricing, health benefit design and provider contracting. With these capabilities, it is able to provide comprehensive health care management services through organized health systems and insurance products.

Carbo-Ceramics (CRR) is the world's largest producer and supplier of ceramic proppants for use in the hydraulic fracturing of natural gas and oil wells. Demand for ceramic proppants depends primarily upon the demand for natural gas and oil and on the number of natural gas and oil wells drilled, completed or recompleted worldwide. More specifically, the demand for ceramic proppants is dependent on the number of oil and gas wells that are hydraulically fractured to stimulate production.

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