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Friday, October 20, 2006

(ALL) - Allstate Corporation - company topped estimates in 13 out of the past 16 quarters

The Allstate Corporation (ALL), which was introduced as a Value stock on Jun 6, recently upped its 2006 earnings per share guidance. The company beat the Street's earnings estimate in 13 out of the past 16 quarters, most recently by 10.9%. The Board of Directors recently approved a new $3 billion share repurchase program. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.0, compared to 5.3 for the market.

Full Analysis

The Allstate Corporation, through its two segments, Allstate Protection and Allstate Financial, engages in the personal property and casualty insurance business, as well as in the life insurance, retirement and investment products business.

ALL is up more than 14% since it was first highlighted as a Value stock on Jun 6. In addition to its solid performance, the company continues to beat the consensus earnings estimate, profit forecasts for this year are on the rise and it is still trading at a discounted valuation.

ALL exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for the past three quarters by an average margin of 20.9%. Furthermore, the company topped estimates in 13 out of the past 16 quarters. Nine of the 13 quarters produced a double-digit earnings surprise.

On Oct 18, the company posted third-quarter profits of $1.93 per share. This amounted to a 10.9% surprise with analysts expecting $1.74. Revenues were down slightly to $8.74 billion from $8.94 billion in the prior-year period. CEO and Chairman Edward M. Liddy stated, “We run our business with the intention of delivering profitable growth over a sustainable period of time. We believe we have the right strategy in place to do that and this quarter is another strong indication that the strategy is working.”

For the first nine months of the year, profits soared to $3.78 billion from $724 million for the first nine months of 2005. Revenues climbed to $26.69 billion from $26.44 billion.

ALL revised its profit guidance for the full year and now projects earnings per share between $7.35 and $7.50. The company's previous projection called for profits between $6.70 and $7.00 per share. The new outlook assumes average expected catastrophe losses for the remainder of the year and no additional prior-year reserve reestimates. The consensus estimate for the full year currently resides at $7.50 and represents a 6.1% increase over the past 60 days.

The Board of Directors authorized a new $3 billion share buyback program, which is expected to commence after the current $4 billion program is completed during the fourth quarter of 2006. ALL will have completed seven share repurchase programs by the end of the year totaling $12.8 billion for an estimated 325 million shares. The Board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of 35 cents per common share of stock in mid July. The company at the moment is yielding 2.2%.

ALL is currently trading at a valuation of 8.4x both trailing 12-month earnings and current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.3x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.2x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.0, compared to 5.3 for the market. ALL has a PEG ratio of 0.95.

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(FCX) - Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc - Compared to the prior-year period, earnings soared 83.7%

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (FCX), which was first presented on May 17, topped the Street's earnings estimate for the past eight quarters by an average margin of 16.2%. Consensus estimates have been trending higher. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 35% over the next 3-5 years. FCX has a current dividend yield of 2.2% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.5%.

Full Analysis

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. engages in the exploration, mining and production of copper, gold and silver. The company's operations are conducted through its subsidiaries, PT Freeport Indonesia, PT Irja Eastern Minerals and Atlantic Copper, S.A.

When FCX was first featured as a Growth and Income stock on May 17, it had exceeded analysts' earnings estimates for six consecutive quarters. Over the past two quarters, the company surprised to the upside yet again. For the past eight quarters, FCX's average margin of surprise was 16.2%.

On Oct 17, the company posted third-quarter profits of $1.58 per share. With analysts calling for $1.50, the company beat estimates by 5.3%. Compared to the prior-year period, earnings soared 83.7%. Revenues jumped 66.8% to $1.64 billion from $983.3 million a year ago.

For the first nine months of the year, profits ballooned 105.7% and revenues rose 51.9%. FCX increased revenues for the past four years and grew profits for five years running.

Consensus estimates for this quarter and next quarter are up 11.0% and 32.4%, respectively, over the past 90 days. Profit forecasts for the full years of 2006 and 2007 jumped 3.2% and 13.1%, respectively, over the same period of time. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 35% over the next 3-5 years, which crushes the 15% projected growth rate of the industry.

The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 31.25 cents per common share of stock on Oct 4. Furthermore, on Aug 1, the Board announced a supplemental common stock dividend of 75 cents per share. The supplemental dividend was paid in addition to the company's regular quarterly dividend. FCX has a current dividend yield of 2.2% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.5%.

FCX is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 21.6% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

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(LRCX) - Lam Research Corp. - company more than tripled third-quarter earnings over last year

Lam Research's earnings estimates have dramatically increased since the company beat expectations. This year's numbers have jumped 10% just in the past week. Next year's estimates have increased 12.3% over the past week. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in 13 straight quarters. Nine analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while five have done so for next year.

Full Analysis

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) engages in the design, manufacture, marketing, and service of semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. Its products include etch systems, including dielectric etch products, conductor etch products, the 2300 Versys systems, Lam 2300 process chambers, and resist strip products, as well as cleaning products.

These systems are used in the production of a range of advanced logic and memory devices, as well as micro-electromechanical systems applications. The company markets its products and services primarily to companies involved in the production of semiconductors in the United States, Europe, Japan, Korea, and Asia Pacific.

The company more than tripled third-quarter earnings over last year. LRCX said net income was $163.9 million, or $1.13 per share. Analysts were predicting earnings per share of $1.02. Revenue for the quarter soared to $604.4 million from $320.9 million for the same period last year and ahead of the average analyst estimate of $593.3 million. New orders for the company increased 13% to $725 million from the second fiscal quarter.

"September results reflect another quarter of strong revenue and earnings growth for Lam Research," stated Steve Newberry, Lam Research's president and chief executive officer. "Operating margins and income achieved record levels, and demonstrate the leverage throughout our business model."

"In addition, we generated record levels of cash from operations, a consequence of our focus on a disciplined approach to asset management. Clearly, these are excellent results and provide a solid foundation for future opportunities."

Earnings estimates have dramatically increased since the company beat expectations. This year's numbers have jumped 10% just in the past week. Next year's estimates have increased 12.3% over the past week. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in 13 straight quarters. Nine analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while five have done so for next year.

LRCX is trading at 11.9x this year's estimate of $4.19 per share, well below the long-term growth rate of 17.14%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.69.

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Thursday, October 19, 2006

(TNP) - Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited - Profit forecasts for the full years of 2006 and 2007 are up 11.0% and 14.3%

Consensus estimates for Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (TNP), which was introduced as a Value stock on Mar 8, continue to climb higher. In early August, the company crushed the second-quarter consensus earnings estimate by 21.8%. TNP is currently yielding 4.9%. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of only 1.4, compared to 5.3 for the market.

Full Analysis

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited is a provider of international seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company owns a fleet of modern tankers providing worldwide marine transportation services for national, state and international oil majors and refineries under long, medium and short-term charters.

TNP, which was first featured as a Value stock on Mar 8, continues to trade at a highly-discounted valuation. Moreover, thanks to earnings estimates trending higher, coupled with positive earnings surprises, the stock still holds the title of a Zacks #1 Rank (strong buy).

On Aug 4, TNP reported second-quarter profits of $33.03 million, or $1.73 per share. This represented a 21.8% surprise with analysts calling for $1.42. Furthermore, it marked a 55.9% year-over-year improvement when compared to earnings of $1.11 achieved in the second quarter of 2005. Revenues soared 60.3% to $105.0 million, compared to $65.5 million last year.

Chairman D. John Stavropoulos stated, “The first seven months of 2006 have been the most active and dynamic in the company's history.” TNP increased profits for the past three years, most recently by 12.9% in 2005.

Consensus estimates for this quarter and next have risen 12.6% and 4.4%, respectively, when compared to estimates of 60 days earlier. Profit forecasts for the full years of 2006 and 2007 are up 11.0% and 14.3%, respectively, over the same period of time.

The Board of Directors boosted its semi-annual cash dividend by 15 cents to $1.25 per share. The dividend is payable Oct 26 to shareholders of record as of Oct 20. Stavropoulos stated, “We are proud to announce our dividend based on our financial performance in the first half of 2006 and the encouraging prospects for the remainder of the year.” The company is currently yielding 4.9%.

On Oct 16, TNP announced that it received two new vessels and placed both on charters that could produce at least $37 million in revenues over three years. The company's pro-forma fleet consists of 53 vessels.

TNP is currently trading at a valuation of 5.6x both trailing 12-month earnings and current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.2x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.2x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of only 1.4, compared to 5.3 for the market. Its return on equity of 25% easily surpasses the industry average of 15%.

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(FMD) - First Marblehead Corporation - Board of Directors recently boosted its quarterly cash dividend by 25%

The First Marblehead Corporation (FMD), which was first presented on Mar 21, exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in eight out of the past nine quarters by an average margin of 12.1%. Consensus estimates for both this quarter and the full year have been trending higher. The Board of Directors recently boosted its quarterly cash dividend by 25%. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.86%.

Full Analysis

The First Marblehead Corporation provides outsourcing services for private education lending in the United States. The company focuses primarily on loan programs for undergraduate, graduate and professional education, and to a lesser degree, on the primary and secondary school market.

FMD was first highlighted as a Growth and Income stock on Mar 21. At the time the company topped analysts' earnings expectations for seven consecutive quarters. In the two quarters that have passed since its debut, FMD missed the consensus estimate by only a penny and subsequently surprised by a large margin. Furthermore, the Board of Directors recently authorized an increase in its quarterly dividend.

On Aug 10, FMD posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2006 profits of $70.8 million, or $1.12 per share. With analysts projecting 84 cents, the company surprised by an impressive 33.3%. The result also marked a 72.3% year-over-year improvement when compared to the 65 cents earned in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005. Revenues soared 23.8% to $148.8 million from $120.2 million.

For the entire fiscal year, profits experienced a 47.8% leap to $236 million, while revenues were up 34.8% to $563.6 million. President and CEO Jack L. Kopnisky stated, “Fiscal year 2006 was one of the strongest years in First Marblehead's history, as revenue, earnings and EPS all exceeded our expectations. We continue to demonstrate that our team can consistently deliver strong operating results. Looking forward, we are confident in our business model and believe a foundation is in place for significant growth into the future.”

FMD is scheduled to release its first-quarter fiscal 2007 results on Oct 24. The consensus estimate for the quarter currently sits at $1.46 and represents a 71.8% increase when compared to the consensus of 60 days earlier. Profit forecasts for the entire fiscal year have risen 10.0% to $4.53 over the same period of time. Two analysts submitted upward revisions for this quarter while three followed suit for the full year. Earnings per share are projected to grow 41% over the next 3-5 years, with the industry expected to grow at a 15% clip.

The Board of Directors boosted its quarterly cash dividend by 25.0% to 15 cents per share from 12 cents per share on Sep 7. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.86%.

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(HUM) - Humana, Inc. - Two analysts have raised their estimates for this year, while three have done so for next year

Humana has met or exceeded estimates in five out of the past six quarters. The latest quarter registered a 39% positive surprise. Two analysts have raised their estimates for this year, while three have done so for next year. 2007 estimates have jumped 3.6% to $3.45 per share over the past 90 days.

Full Analysis

Humana, Inc. is one of the nation's largest health services companies, with about seven million members located in 23 states in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. The company's main product is its Health Maintenance Organization (HMO).

It also offers Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) products, Administrative Service Only (ASO) products, and specialty products, which include dental, group life, and short-term disability.

The company operates two business segments: Commercial and Government. The Commercial segment, catering to employer groups and individuals, includes three lines of business: fully insured medical, ASO, and specialty.

The Government segment serves members enrolled in government-aided programs and has three product offerings: Medicare Advantage (formerly Medicare+Choice), Medicaid, and TRICARE (a medical program under the Department of Defense).

Humana continues to enhance and expand its consumer directed commercial product portfolio and expand its business platform. The company's new product design has in recent years focused on meeting the demand for greater self determination by employers and members for varying levels of copayments, deductibles, coinsurance, benefits levels and price.

The company's acquisition of CarePlus Health Plan, a Medicare Advantage (MA) HMO based in South Florida, or $408M will add another 50,000 members. The additional members added approximately 30% to Humana's South Florida Medicare membership for a total of 180,000 members, enhancing operations in the key state of Florida.

HUM has met or exceeded estimates in five out of the past six quarters. The latest quarter registered a 39% positive surprise. Two analysts have raised their estimates for this year, while three have done so for next year. 2007 estimates have jumped 3.6% to $3.45 per share over the past 90 days.

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Wednesday, October 18, 2006

(SAFC) - Safeco Corporation - During the second quarter, the company bought back 3.7 million shares

Safeco Corporation (SAFC), which was first highlighted as a Value pick on Jun 1, continues to beat earnings estimates and trade at a discounted valuation. The company exceeded analysts' expectations in 15 out of the past 16 quarters. The Board of Directors increased the company's share repurchase authorization on Aug 11 and declared a quarterly cash dividend of 30 cents per common share of stock. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.8, compared to 5.3 for the market.

Full Analysis

Safeco Corporation operates as a property and casualty insurance company in the United States. The company's four business segments include Safeco Personal Insurance, Safeco Business Insurance, Surety and P&C Other.

When SAFC was first presented as a Value stock on Jun 1, its remarkable history of exceeding analysts' earnings expectations was noted. Furthermore, consensus estimates for the company were trending higher. Nearly five months later, the story has not changed and neither has its Zacks Rank as a result. This Zacks #1 Rank stock also continues to trade at a discounted valuation.

SAFC reported better-than-expected earnings per share in 15 of the past 16 quarters, including 14 surprises by at least a double-digit margin. SAFC is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 31.

On Aug 2, the company reported second-quarter profits of $1.71 per share. With analysts calling for $1.35, SAFC surprised by an impressive 26.7%. Moreover, the result represented a 23.0% year-over-year improvement. Total revenues were down slightly to $1.54 billion from $1.59 billion in the prior-year period.

During the second quarter, the company bought back 3.7 million shares, or 3% of its outstanding common stock, for a total cost of $205.5 million. Year to date, SAFC repurchased 8.9 million shares, or 7% of its outstanding shares, for a total cost of $475.7 million. The Board of Directors boosted the company's buyback program to 10 million shares on Aug 11. The number includes those shares that have yet to be repurchased under previous authorizations.

The consensus estimate for this quarter currently resides at $1.47. Compared to the consensus of 60 days earlier, it jumped 11.4%, with six analysts upping their profit forecasts. Estimates for the full year of 2006 increased 3.3% to $6.24 over the same period of time. Seven analysts submitted upward revisions.

The Board declared a quarterly dividend of 30 cents per common share of stock on Aug 11. The dividend is payable Oct 23 to shareholders of record as of Oct 6. Back in early May, the company's dividend was increased by 20%. SAFC has a current dividend yield of 2.0% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.9%.

SAFC is currently trading at a valuation of 11.0x trailing 12-month earnings and at 9.8x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.3x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.3x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.8, compared to 5.3 for the market.

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(HOG) - Harley-Davidson, Inc. - Steadily increasing cash flows from operating activities

Harley-Davidson, Inc (HOG) topped analysts' earnings expectations in 14 out of the past 16 quarters, most recently by 9.1%. HOG increased revenues and grew profits for nine years running. The Board of Directors recently added 20 million shares to its repurchase program. The company has a current dividend yield of 1.3% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.71%.

Full Analysis

Harley-Davidson, Inc., through its subsidiaries, produces heavyweight motorcycles, motorcycle parts and related accessories principally in the United States and internationally.

HOG has a habit of either meeting or beating analysts' quarterly EPS estimates. In fact, over the past 16 quarters, HOG reported 14 positive surprises while matching the consensus estimate in the remaining two. Earnings per share grew 22.1% over the past five years.

On Oct 12, HOG posted third-quarter profits of $1.20 per share. Compared to the prior-year period, earnings soared 25.0%. Furthermore, the result topped analysts' estimates by a solid 9.1%. Revenues jumped 14.7% to a record $1.64 billion, compared to $1.43 billion in second quarter of 2005.

CEO Jim Ziemer stated, “As we look to the future, the company believes it will continue to deliver EPS growth in the range of 11% to 17 % annually through 2009. We expect earnings growth to be driven by solid revenue growth, margin improvement and the benefits of strong free cash flow.” HOG's history of increasing revenues and growing profits has been quite stellar, having done so for nine consecutive years.

The company recently launched four new models and the new Twin Cam 96 engine. It was said to be HOG's most extensive launch of new products in the company's history.

During the first nine months of the year, HOG bought back 17.2 million shares of its common stock for a total cost of $911.0 million. Furthermore, the Board of Directors recently authorized the repurchase of up to 20 million more shares.

Steadily increasing cash flows from operating activities have enabled HOG to provide additional income to its shareholders in the form of a dividend. On Sep 14, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of 21 cents per common share of stock. On Apr 29, the dividend was boosted by 16.7%. The company has a current dividend yield of 1.3% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.71%.

HOG's return on equity of 33%, a common measure of a company's profitability, is in line with the industry average.

HOG is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 21.6% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

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(MCRS) - MICROS Systems - earnings estimates have been on the rise after the company's impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings

MICROS is experiencing strong earnings momentum. As would be expected, earnings estimates have been on the rise after the company's impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings. Over the past 60 days, this year's numbers have increased 6.0% to $1.94 per share. There is only one analyst covering the stock at the moment.

Full Analysis

MICROS Systems, Inc. (MCRS) engages in the design, manufacture, marketing, and servicing of enterprise information solutions for the hospitality and specialty retail industries. Its enterprise solutions include hotel information systems consisting of software encompassing property management systems, sales and catering systems, central reservation systems, and customer information systems.

The company also provides spare parts, media supplies, network products, printers, installation services, operator and manager training, onsite hardware maintenance, customized software development, application software support, credit card software support, systems configuration, network support, help desk, software hosting, and consulting.

Micros reports fiscal first-quarter earnings on October 26. The company turned in exceptional results in its latest quarter in late-August. For the quarter ended June 30, Micros earned $21.4 million, or 53 cents per share, compared with $18.1 million, or 45 cents per share, for the same quarter in 2005. Revenue grew to $191.8 million from $172 million in the year-ago period. Analysts expected 48 cents per share for the company.

Tom Giannopoulos, MICROS's Chairman and CEO, stated: "We are extremely pleased with the record results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year. We are proud of our achievements and are appreciative of the trust that customers put in our products and services. The quality of our products and the outstanding efforts of our employees continue to contribute to our success."

As would be expected, earnings estimates have been on the rise after the company's impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings. Over the past 60 days, this year's numbers have increased 6.0% to $1.94 per share. There is only one analyst covering the stock at the moment. The stock is trading at 22.4x next year's estimate of $2.25 per share, above the long-term growth rate of 16.50%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 1.36.

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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

(PHLY) - Philadelphia Consolidated Holding Corp. - results dwarfed the consensus estimate of 70 cents by an impressive 50.0%

Philadelphia Consolidated Holding Corp. (PHLY) exceeded analysts' earnings expectations for the past three quarters, most recently by 50.0%. Consensus estimates for both this quarter and the full year have been trending higher. Earnings per share are projected to grow 15% over the next 3-5 years for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.0, compared to 5.3 for the market. Its PEG ratio currently stands at 0.88.


Full Analysis

Philadelphia Consolidated Holding Corp. designs, markets and underwrites specialty commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products for select target industries or niches.

PHLY topped analysts' earnings expectations for the past three quarters by an average margin of 20.3%. Furthermore, the company met or beat the Street's estimate in 14 out of the past 15 quarters.

On Jul 27, PHLY posted second-quarter profits of $1.05 per share. The result dwarfed the consensus estimate of 70 cents by an impressive 50.0%. Compared to the prior-year period, earnings soared 64.1%. Gross written premiums increased 20.1% to $341.4 million from $284.3 million for the same quarter in 2005.

CEO James J. Maguire, Jr. stated, “During the quarter, our business model continued to generate excellent growth and profitability. We continued to see new business opportunities across most product lines, and renewal retention percentage levels remained at their historical high levels in the mid 90's.”

For the first six months of 2006, profits experienced a 35.1% jump to $125.2 million, while gross written premiums rose 17.5% to $669.4 million when compared to the first six months of 2005. PHLY increased revenues for the past nine years and grew profits for four years running.

The consensus estimate for this quarter currently sits at 72 cents. When compared to the consensus of 30 days earlier, it climbed 18.0%. Two analysts submitted upward revisions. Profit forecasts for the full year are up 4.2% to $3.22 over the same period of time and reflect upward revisions by two analysts as well. Earnings per share are projected to grow 15% over the next 3-5 years, with the industry expected to grow at a 12% clip.

PHLY is currently trading at a valuation of 14.8x trailing 12-month earnings and at 12.8x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.2x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.2x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.0, compared to 5.3 for the market. Its PEG ratio currently stands at 0.88.

PHLY seems to be doing quite well with the money invested by its shareholder base. Its return on equity of 24% is very respectable and is in line with the industry average.

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(FLR) - Fluor Corporation - beat the Street's earnings estimate in four out of the past five quarters by an average margin of 26.0%

Fluor Corporation (FLR), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in four out of the past five quarters, most recently by 11.1%. On Aug 3, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 20 cents per common share of stock. FLR is currently yielding 1.0% and has a five-year average dividend yield of 1.5%.


Full Analysis

Fluor Corporation provides engineering, procurement, construction, operations and maintenance and project management services worldwide. The company serves industries, such as oil and gas, the United States Government, chemical and petrochemicals, life sciences, manufacturing, power and transportation infrastructure.

FLR beat the Street's earnings estimate in four out of the past five quarters by an average margin of 26.0%. In each of the four quarters the company produced a double-digit earnings surprise. Earnings per share grew 10% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow by a larger magnitude going forward—14% over the next 3-5 years. The company is expected to release its third-quarter results on Nov 6.

On Aug 7, FLR reported second-quarter earnings per share of 80 cents. This amounted to an 11.1% positive earnings surprise and a 37.9% year-over-year improvement. Revenues came in at $3.46 billion versus $2.92 billion in the second quarter of 2005. The company said it received a record $5.75 billion in total new contracts compared to $3.23 billion a year earlier. FLR's oil and gas and industrial and infrastructure segments led the way with $2.6 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively, in new awards.

For the first six months of 2006, FLR posted profits of $155.4 million. This compares with $31.0 million achieved in the first six months of 2005, which included a pre-tax charge of $65.0 million for a hotel project in the Caribbean. Revenues jumped 22.4% to $7.1 billion from $5.8 billion. The company reiterated its guidance for full-year 2006 earnings per share between $2.90 and $3.20.

The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 20 cents per common share of stock on Aug 3. The company has a current dividend yield of 1.0% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.5%.

The company's return on equity of 18% illustrates management's success in enhancing shareholder value. This is nearly three times greater when compared to the industry average of 7%. FLR is a FORTUNE 500 company that is ranked #1 in FORTUNE magazine's “Engineering, Construction” category of America's largest corporations.

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(ERTS) - For the first quarter, the company posted a 46% upside surprise on a 13% increase in revenue

Electronic Arts has a robust pipeline for the coming year. ERTS's sports franchises such as Madden NFL, NCAA Football, and FIFA Soccer dominate the market and are wildly popular amongst the game-playing public. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in four out of the past five quarters, with each of the positive surprises surpassing 20%. Four analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while two have done so for next year.

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Full Analysis

Electronic Arts, Inc. (ERTS) engages in the development, marketing, publishing, and distribution of interactive software games worldwide. Its software games are playable by consumers on in-home video game players; personal computers; mobile platforms, including handheld video game players and cellular handsets; and Internet and other proprietary online networks.

The company develops games internally, and also engages third-parties to develop games on its behalf at its development and production studios located near San Francisco, Los Angeles, Orlando, Chicago, Vancouver, Montreal, London, Sweden, Tokyo, and Shanghai. Electronic Arts also teams with other game developers who develop their own interactive software games with the company's assistance, which it then publishes, markets, and distributes.

In addition to hugely successful existing products, the company has a robust pipeline for the coming year. ERTS's sports franchises such as Madden NFL, NCAA Football, and FIFA Soccer dominate the market and are wildly popular amongst the game-playing public. The mobile phone business could be a great driver of revenue growth in the future.

The company reports fiscal second-quarter earnings on November 7. Analysts are currently looking for a loss of eight cents per share, although the loss estimate has declined 20% over the past three months. For the first quarter, the company posted a 46% upside surprise on a 13% increase in revenue.

"We're pleased to be the leading publisher on the Xbox 360," said Larry Probst, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We are on schedule with strong support for the launch of PlayStation 3 and we have increased our development efforts for the Nintendo DS and Wii."

"We look forward to our slate of fall launches and the excitement surrounding next-generation software," said Warren Jenson, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer. "While the risks of this technology transition remain very real -- our franchises are well-positioned for the opportunities ahead."

The company has exceeded earnings estimates in four out of the past five quarters, with each of the positive surprises surpassing 20%. Four analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while two have done so for next year. Over the past 90 days, next year's estimates have increased 16.7% to 98 cents per share.

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Monday, October 16, 2006

(LOGI) - (IFX) - Time for Caution Regarding EuroTech

With the markets continuing their upward swing in light of good early numbers this earnings season, it put us in mind of how markets may be progressing overseas. We recently met with senior European and Asian technology analyst Robert Perri, CFA to find out if the positive aspects of the U.S. markets are carrying over into the regions he covers.

We’ve noticed a few downgrades for some of your EuroTech coverage lately. Why the bearishness?

I haven’t been completely bearish on EuroTech, but I do believe two segments of the market have been ahead of themselves within the segment. My feeling is that the European Semiconductors and the IT Security firms are trading at valuations that are unjustified at this time, which has led me to downgrade a few of the companies in this segment. Our belief is that some areas of technology – including software and services – still have a lot of upside potential, but we are being cautious when we feel valuations get ahead of expectations.

Do you find that lower oil prices and the continued economic growth across Europe thus far may be turning your outlook more positive for this group in the near term?

These issues have given us a bit more hope for the second half of the year, but we remain cautious. Lower oil prices should help consumers relieve some of the inflationary pressures they have been experiencing recently in Europe, which should help with consumer spending which has been much weaker than in the U.S. Another positive sign for European Tech firms is the recent weakness in the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. The weak Euro and the lower oil prices should help boost European exports in the second half, which could bode well for the fourth quarter.

How are stocks in Asia – particularly China and India – progressing? Are they becoming less volatile than they had been previously? Are their valuations still reasonable?

For the past few years, stocks in India and China have been on a straight line upwards. During the summer, there was a slight pull-back in these stock markets that we felt was overly negative, although a pull-back now and then is a good thing. Investors became concerned that a global slowdown was on the way, and the markets suffered. Currently, investors are starting to believe there will be a soft landing across the global economic front and the markets have risen to previous levels.

We believe that India and China still offer strong growth prospects and over the long term we believe that these valuations are justified, although now we are at the point where companies in China and India have to prove their valuations are justified by producing solid results. The volatility is still there, and the volatility may increase as an inevitable shake-out of the pretenders from the solid companies occurs, but this is a good thing in the long term.

What are your top Buy and Sell recommendations at this time?

I continue to be a believer in Logitech (LOGI), as I believe the stock is still not reflecting its true potential in the near-term. Logitech’s modestly priced offerings also should help the company maintain growth, and lower oil prices should lower its shipping costs as most of its products are produced in Asia and sold around the world. The company has introduced several new products, including wireless headphones for MP3 players and new controllers for the PS3 and Xbox 360 that should boost sales going into the Christmas selling season. The company is coming off a very solid fiscal first quarter, and we expect the second quarter to be strong in what is typically weak. We expect shares of LOGI to trade around 25x our 2007 EPADS estimate, or around $25 in the next six months.

As I mentioned earlier, I also remain cautious on the European Semiconductor industry, specifically, Infineon (IFX). Infineon’s stock price has risen recently, as it sold off its memory business in an IPO, which raised only half the proceeds expected. The remaining company has two divisions: the Automotive, Industrial and Multi-Market (AIM) division and the Communications division. The AIM division is profitable and continues to perform well, although the recent weakness in the automotive sector doesn’t bode well for this quarter. The Communications division (COMs), on the other hand, has lost money for eight straight quarters, and we expect this to continue into next year. The results of the COMs division continually drag down the company’s overall results, and it is one of the primary reasons IFX has been losing money for six straight quarters, while most of the semiconductor industry has been strong.

Additionally, we are now projecting a slowdown in the semiconductor industry in 2007, which should hinder any chances of a turn-around in the company’s profitability. We do expect Infineon to report a profit this quarter, as its gain from the IPO of Qimondo (Its Memory Division) should boost results, but management has missed many of its targets in the past, which doesn’t give us confidence it will be able to execute now.

For investors looking to increase exposure to technology outside the U.S. at this time, what advice would you give them?

My advice would be to be a bit more cautious now, if you already have money invested outside the U.S., I would maintain those positions, but I would be cautious about adding to those positions at this time. The European markets have had a great year in 2006, and most of the economies in Europe are finally starting to perform in-line with expectations.

One other issue when investing abroad is currency, and right now we are in a period of a weakening Euro and a strengthening U.S. Dollar, so instead of having a tailwind helping your returns, there is currently a headwind when investing in Europe that could eat into returns at this time. If I did decide to add to my exposure outside the U.S., I would look for areas that have lagged in the previous year that may be poised for growth.

Rob Perri, CFA is a senior analyst covering the European and Asian technology industries for Zacks Equity Research.

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(DRYS) - DryShips - is profitable and it is currently pays a dividend yield of nearly 6%

Vivian Lewis and her team, from the Global Investing newsletter, discuss a recent bounce back experienced by shares of DryShips. Find out what these featured experts have to say about the company and the industry in which it operates. Also, read excerpts from various financial publications regarding the dry bulk carrier company.

Them Dry Ships from October 2

DryShips (DRYS) bounced back when its reported numbers missed forecasts. Buying began as investors realized that 97% of the fleet was being chartered in the quarter with TCE rates (average daily revenues) of over $20,000 when daily vessel operating expenses were around $4,000. Even with TCE rates down 40% from a year ago, DRYS is profitable and it is currently pays a dividend yield of nearly 6%.

Dryships' fleet is 29 dry bulk ships and it recently agreed to buy 5 more, all to ship coal, iron ore, and grain. China, coal and iron ore poor, continues robust demand for the commodities DRYS hauls. The dry bulk market will strengthen as the global economy expands, and its spot-market focus means DRYS should continue to see its coffers as full as its ships. DRYS' fleet is aged 11 years, while the average drybulk fleet age is nearer to 16 years. The economic life of a drybulk vessels is 25+ years. DRYS has a young fleet and moreover focused on Panamax vessels, the workhorses of drybulk. The daily Panamax spot rate at end June was $19,500; today it is 27,500. The stock and its earnings will be volatile.

Motley Fool published “DryShips: An Investing Shipwreck” in which CEO George Economou and DRYS were attacked for missteps from the default of Economou's Alpha Shipping (brought down by the holders of its convertible notes in 1999) to related-party ship purchases reported in DryShips' 2005 initial public offering. The article was based on a piece by Kate Welling, former Barron's reporter, which came out 18 months ago, and it in turn was based on material which was in the prospectus for DRYS' ipo. This is old news.

Here is an extract of an article by Alaric Nightingale in Bloomberg, reprinted with permission from Fullermoney.com (London) on DRYS: “While the Baltic Dry Index, a benchmark for freight rates, has risen 49% in the past 12 months, the price for individual shipments has risen even more at times in the face of demand from China. BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, in Feb. paid $16,250 a day to hire a ship to send 70,000 tons of Australian iron ore to China. Six months later, the company paid almost three quarters more–$28,000 a day–for the same voyage, according to London-based shipbroker Galbraith's Ltd.

“Chinese industrial production rose 16.7% in July, and the economy expanded 11.3% in the second quarter. The iron ore, coal, and coke Chinese companies sucked in this year fed record steel production. China produced 36.1 million metric tons in July, up 22% from a year earlier, according to the Brussels-based International Iron and Steel Institute, boosting demand for export and import shipments at a stroke.

“The demand for iron ore and coal is pretty substantial, unless you think that the market in China is going to tank, which I don't think is going to happen,' said Scott Black, who manages $1.6 billion for Delphi Management Inc. in Boston.”

David Fuller adds: “the Baltic Dry Index is interesting because it is pushing higher once again. This is occurring at a time when lots of financial pundits are warning of recession in the USA, a sharp slowdown in China and the rest of Asia, and a collapse of commodity prices. I respectfully disagree, although it would be unkind of me to add that we have heard similarly pessimistic views over the last three years, usually from the same sources. To the extent that the Baltic Dry Index is relevant, it appears to be bullish.” (cf ADRWatch).

DRYS agreed to sell the 1995-built, 71,747 dwt panamax bulkcarrier, MV Panormos, for about $35 million, to an outside buyer. Delivery will be in Q4. DRYS will purchase a 2000-built, 74,716 dwt panamax carrier (to be renamed MV Redondo) for about $40.75 million also to be delivered, charter-free, in Q4. DRYS also signed contracts for two panamax drybulk vessels to be built in China for $33.25 million each, to be delivered in Q4 2009 and Q1 2010.

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Cisco(CSCO) - General Electric (GE) - Hewlett- Packard (HPQ) - Intel (INTC) - Microsoft (MSFT)

Gregory Spear, editor of The Spear Report newsletter, explains that investors are experiencing an environment that partly resembles the late 1990's and echoes a group of former bull market leaders in the late 1960s and early 1970's known as the Nifty 50. Read about these stocks and discover the new “nifty” 30. Then check out some of the holdings on this featured expert's Consensus Buy List.

Detail from October 6

Last week Gregory Spear and his team discussed the recent outperformance of the large-caps and speculated about the possibility that the 6-year reign of small-cap leadership could be in danger. Although it still is too soon to call a significant turn in this long-term horse race, the action in the market in the past week is adding incremental confirmation to Spear and his team's hypothesis. Last week they compared the performance of the S&P 500 to the Russell 2000. This week they show a chart of the Dow vs the Russell over the last three years. It suggests a similar shift of emphasis.

With stocks like Cisco (CSCO), General Electric (GE), Hewlett- Packard (HPQ), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) leading the market higher, we are experiencing an investing environment that partly resembles the late 1990's. It also echoes a group of former bull market leaders in the late 1960s and early 1970's known as the Nifty 50.

These companies were the buy-and-hold favorites of the day, as they had dominance in their industry with popular brands, unassailable patents, top flight management, unstoppable sales growth and steady profits and dividends. They were “nifty” because they supposedly took the thinking out of the investing equation and they were valued accordingly. Nifty 50 stocks sold at an average P/E of 37 versus a market multiple of 18. (At the height of the Nifty mania in 1972, however, Polaroid briefly flashed a trailing P/E ratio of 93.) The bear markets of 1969-1970 and 1973-1974 shook investor's confidence in these companies temporarily, but the fundamentals of their business models really did give most of them a lasting advantage. Many went on to make new all time highs once the bull market began in 1982.

The Nifty 30

The Dow Jones 30 Industrials has become the new “nifty” group, as reflected in its new all-time highs this week. Many of the former members of Nifty 50 have survived and are current members of the Dow Jones 30 Industrials. They are: American Express (AXP), p/e 20, Coca Cola (KO), p/e 21, Disney (DIS), p/e 21, General Electric (GE), p/e 22, Gillette (now part of Proctor &Gamble-PG) p/e 24, International Business Machines (IBM), p/e 15, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), p/e 17, 3M (MMM), p/e 17, McDonald's (MCD), p/e 18, Merck (MRK), p/e 16, Phillip Morris/Altria (MO), p/e 14, Microsoft (MSFT), p/e 23, and Pfizer (PFE), p/e 19. Interestingly, the P/E ratio of these companies on average is somewhat higher than the market, but not double that of the market like it was in former days. They are not (yet) wildly over valued.

Of these survivors, only AXP has managed to make new all-time highs along with the Dow this week. What does that tell us? AXP is a financial services company for the well-heeled consumer, and the wealth effect both from stocks and real estate over the last 25 years is still intact.

MO has also outperformed the pack, setting new highs over the last 20 months. MO's outperformance is testimony to the timeless power of addiction. Of course, it is also testimony to the company's ability to cultivate new markets (youth), to lie (see the recent rulings that it deliberately made “light” brands more dangerous, not less) and to shift to less regulated and less educated markets (developing nations) in its unending quest to sell deadly products designed to be more and more addictive all the time to those who are most vulnerable. (Shame on us all for putting up with it.)

But there are other themes of note. Besides AXP and MO, the Dow members who have made new all-time highs in 2006 are Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Exxon (XOM), Proctor and Gamble (PG) and UTX (UTX). Sector-wise, we have two consumer names, two defense contractors, the largest energy company in the world and the largest infrastructure-related company in the world. Their leadership makes sense in a world of increasing population, emerging economies, global tensions and an energy crunch. In addition to investing in companies like AXP that benefit from the wealth effect, long-term investors would do well to keep these themes in mind.

Balancing Act

The fact that very few of the Nifty 30 are making new all-time highs along with the DOW average is something worth pondering. That circumstance can be interpreted two ways, depending on one's bias. On the one hand, it might be taken as a bearish indicator, since 80% of the Dow is not “confirming” the new highs. On the other hand, it suggests that the Nifty 30 have plenty of room to run before becoming excessively overbought as a group.

Spear and his team do not know yet whether capital will start flowing from Main Street to Wall Street as the real estate market cools, but they do know that the “buzz” about the Dow setting new all-time highs is considerably lower in decibels than it was six years ago. Taxi drivers are not passing along stock tips and making trades on cell phones. Celebrities are not ringing the closing bell. From a contrary perspective, that is also a positive. Bull markets do best when they have a Wall of Worry…or skepticism… or even indifference….to climb.

Part of the anti-climactic tone also has to do with the fact that the Dow would need to run about 15% higher than it is today to make up for inflationary losses over the last six years. It will likely take a much longer run into uncharted territory before the Comeback Kid will rekindle the fancy of the populace at large. That said, as long as fund managers have new capital to deploy, a significant part of it is likely to be directed toward these Nifty 30 names.

There will be competition for capital from certain emerging markets, however, but of the major world players only the Hong Kong stock market has been able to make new all-time highs along with the Dow. That suggests that the U.S.-China axis, which has been the main engine of global growth over the last four years, is alive and well.

Consensus Buy List

Flextronic Intl. (FLEX) is a leading provider of advanced electronics manufacturing services to OEMs primarily in the telecommunications and networking, consumer electronics and computer industries. The company's strategy is to provide customers with the ability to outsource, on a global basis, a complete product where the company's take responsibility for engineering, supply chain management, assembly, integration, test and logistics management. The company provides complete product design services, including electrical and mechanical, circuit and layout.

Standard PAC (SPF) operates primarily as a geographically diversified builder of medium-priced single-family homes with a majority of its operations in California. In addition, Co. assists homebuyers in obtaining financing for home purchases through Standard Pacific Savings. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and marketing of moveable and acoustical office partitions and office furniture.

CMI Cummins Inc. (CMI) is one of the leading worldwide designers and manufacturers of diesel engines. The company also produces natural gas engines and engine components and subsystems. Cummins provides power and components for a wide variety of equipment in its key businesses: engine, power generation, and filtration.

This article highlights the commentary of Gregory R. Spear for the Zacks.com audience. Gregory R. Spear provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "The Spear Report" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "The Spear Report" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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Sunday, October 15, 2006

(ARCC) - topped analysts' earnings expectations for five consecutive quarters by an average margin of 22.7%

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) topped the Street's earnings estimate for the past five quarters by an average margin of 22.7%. The Board of Directors declared a third-quarter dividend of 40 cents per share in early August. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of only 1.2, compared to 5.2 for the market.

Full Analysis

Ares Capital Corporation operates as a closed-end, nondiversified management investment company in the United States. The company's objective is to generate both current income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments. ARCC primarily invests first and second lien senior loans, long-term mezzanine debt and equity investments.

ARCC topped analysts' earnings expectations for five consecutive quarters by an average margin of 22.7%. In four of the five quarters, the company posted a double-digit earnings surprise. Looking ahead, earnings per share are projected to grow 11.3% over the next 3-5 years.

On Aug 9, ARCC reported second-quarter profits of $16.7 million, or 44 cents per share. This marks a 33.3% improvement when compared to the 33 cents achieved in the second quarter of 2005. Net investment income grew 60.3% to $9.3 million from $5.8 million during the same period a year ago.

The portfolio value of the company's investments as of Jun 30 was $878.2 million. The investments were comprised of approximately 67% in senior secured debt securities (35% in first lien and 32% in second lien assets), 25% in mezzanine debt securities, 6% in preferred/common equity securities and 2% in other securities (senior notes/CDO investments). The allocation does not account for ARCC's cash and cash equivalents.

President Michael Arougheti stated, “We continued our track record of capital gains generation. We have posted capital gains in every quarter since inception, which provides continued dividend stability and visibility.”

The Board of Directors declared a third-quarter cash dividend of 40 cents per share. The company's dividend in the second quarter was 38 cents. ARCC's current dividend yield is an astounding 8.9%. ARCC's return on equity, a common measure of management effectiveness, tops that of the industry average—10% compared to 9%.

ARCC is currently trading at a valuation of 11.8x trailing 12-month earnings and at 12.2x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.1x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.1x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of only 1.2, compared to 5.2 for the market.

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(CEG) - company increased revenues for the past nine years

Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG) beat the Street's earnings estimate in 13 out of the past 16 quarters, most recently by 19.2%. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 12% over the next 3-5 years. The company has a current dividend yield of 2.5% and a five-year average dividend yield of 2.8%. Its return on equity betters that of the industry average—13% compared to 11%.

Full Analysis

Constellation Energy Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides energy solutions to commercial and industrial customers in North America. The company operates through three segments: merchant energy, regulated electric and regulated gas.

CEG exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in 13 out of the past 16 quarters by an average margin of 14.4%. Earnings per share grew 9% over the past five years and are forecasted to grow by a larger magnitude going forward—12% over the next 3-5 years. The industry is expected to grow at a 7% clip. The company is expected to release its third-quarter results on Oct 27.

On Jul 28, CEG posted second-quarter earnings per share of 56 cents. With the Street projecting 47 cents, this amounted to a 19.2% positive earnings surprise. Total revenues jumped 27.0% to $4.42 billion from $3.48 billion in the prior-year period.

Chairman, President and CEO Mayo A. Shattuck III stated, “Our confidence in our long-term outlook is strengthening as we execute our plan and build the backlog for future earnings. With earnings guidance for 2008 representing compounded annual growth of 22 to 28% from 2006, Constellation Energy's independent course and financial outlook have never been stronger.” The company increased revenues for the past nine years. Profits have risen for the past two, most recently by 15.5% in 2005.

The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 37.75 cents per share on Jul 21. The company has a current dividend yield of 2.5% and a five-year average dividend yield of 2.8%.

At year-end 2005, CEG and FPL Group, Inc. (FPL) announced plans to merge and create the nation's largest competitive energy supplier, the second-largest electric utility, the third-largest nuclear plant operator and the leading provider of wind power. The combined company would have a diverse geographic presence, with 5.5 million electric customers in Florida and Maryland, 625,000 gas customers in Maryland and thousands of commercial, industrial and utility customers across the country. The proposed merger requires regulatory approval by next June or it can be terminated.

CEG's return on equity of 13%, a common measure of management effectiveness, tops the industry average of 11%.

CEG is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 21.6% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

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(TELK) - the company has surpassed expectations in each of the past 10 quarters, with seven of them registering double-digit surprises

Telik is a relatively early stage biotechnology company, so it doesn't have earnings yet. However, results thus far have been encouraging. Second-quarter results exceeded estimates by almost 15%. In fact, the company has surpassed expectations in each of the past 10 quarters, with seven of them registering double-digit surprises. Seven analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while four have done so for next year.

Full Analysis

Telik, Inc. (TELK), a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases. Its lead product candidate TELCYTA is a small molecule cancer drug product designed to be activated in cancer cells.

TELCYTA is in phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of platinum resistant or refractory ovarian cancer and lung cancer. The company's other product TELINTRA is a small molecule bone marrow stimulant that activates signaling pathways and lead to the growth and differentiation of blood cells.

The company is a relatively early stage biotechnology company, so it doesn't have earnings yet. However, results thus far have been encouraging. Second-quarter results exceeded estimates by almost 15%. In fact, the company has surpassed expectations in each of the past 10 quarters, with seven of them registering double-digit surprises. Seven analysts have raised their numbers for this year, while four have done so for next year.

Another strength of the company is its strong cash position. As of June 30th of this year, TELK had almost $174 million in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. It is important for biotechnology companies to have ample cash on hand in order to fund operations and invest in its future.

During the second quarter the company began the Initiation of the ASSIST-5 Phase 3 clinical trial, which will compare treatment with the combination of TELCYTA and liposomal doxorubicin to treatment with liposomal doxorubicin alone in women with platinum refractory or resistant ovarian cancer in the second line setting.

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