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Friday, November 24, 2006

(PFG) - Principal Financial Group, Inc - beat estimates in 14 out of the past 15 quarters

Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) beat analysts’ earnings expectations in nine straight quarters and in 14 out of the past 15. Analysts have been upping their earnings estimates for both this year and next. The Board of Directors recently raised its annual common stock dividend by 23.1% to 80 cents per share from 65 cents. PFG has a current dividend yield of 1.4% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.83%.

Full Analysis

Principal Financial Group, Inc. is a leading global financial company offering businesses, individuals and institutional clients a wide range of financial products and services. The company’s range of products and services includes retirement solutions, life and health insurance, wellness programs and investment and banking products.

PFG exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in nine consecutive quarters by an average margin of 9.5%. Furthermore, the company beat estimates in 14 out of the past 15 quarters. Earnings per share grew 19.1% over the past five years.

On Oct 30, PFG reported third-quarter profits of 94 cents per share, which topped the consensus estimate of 83 cents by 13.3%. Earnings in the prior-year period came in at 75 cents per share, thus, the company produced a 25.3% year-over-year improvement. Revenues jumped 9.9% to $2.44 billion, from $2.22 billion in the third quarter of 2005. PFG’s life and health insurance segment led the way.

Chairman and CEO J. Barry Griswell stated, “We're particularly pleased, so close to the five year anniversary of our IPO, to report record results, with all time highs for earnings per share, operating earnings and assets under management.”

Since PFG released its results for the third quarter, consensus estimates have been trending higher. Estimates for this year currently reside at $3.46, representing an 11-cent jump over the past 30 days. Twelve analysts upped their earnings expectations. Profit forecasts for next year experienced a nine-cent increase over the same period of time. Upward revisions were submitted by 10 analysts. Earnings per share are projected to grow 12% over the next 3-5 years, compared to the 10% expected growth rate of the industry.

On Nov 7, the Board of Directors raised its annual common stock dividend by 23.1% to 80 cents per share from 65 cents. The dividend is payable on Dec 15 to stockholders of record as of Nov 22. PFG has a current dividend yield of 1.4% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.83%.

The company’s return on equity of 13% is in line with the industry average.

PFG is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 21.6% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria.

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(CROX) - Crocs, Inc - Earnings estimates for CROX have gone through the roof over the past 90 days

Earnings estimates for CROX have gone through the roof over the past 90 days. This year's numbers have soared 91.3% to $1.53 per share, while next year's estimates have leapt almost 100% to $2.00 per share over that time period. All six analysts have raised their projections for this year and next. The company has only been public for three quarters, but it has exceeded estimates in each of them by an average of about 34%.

Full Analysis

Crocs, Inc. (CROX) engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of footwear for men, women, and children under the ‘crocs’ brand worldwide. The company produces soft and lightweight, nonmarking, and slip and odor-resistant shoes.

It also manufactures and sells a line of crocs-branded apparel and accessory items, which include t-shirts, sweatshirts, hats, beanies, and socks, sunglasses, baseball hats, power straps, and kneepads; and nonbranded products, such as spa pillows and kayak seats that are marketed to original equipment manufacturers.

The company sells its products through various footwear channels, including specialty footwear stores, outdoor retailers, and sporting goods and department stores. It also sells its products through other specialty channels, including gift shops, uniform suppliers, independent bicycle dealers, specialty food retailers, health and beauty stores.

CROX said third-quarter earnings soared past expectations, as demand for its colorful slip-on footwear jumped. Quarterly income totaled $21.5 million, or 53 cents per share, compared with a profit of $7.4 million, or 22 cents per share during the same period last year. Analysts only expected 41 cents per share during the quarter.

"Internationally, the brand has increased retail traction, which bodes well as we prepare to launch a full line of styles overseas next year," said Ron Snyder, president and chief executive officer. Crocs expects fourth-quarter profit between 40 cents to 43 cents per share, on revenue between $92 million and $95 million. Analysts are expecting net income of 29 cents per share on revenue of $79.2 million.

Earnings estimates for CROX have gone through the roof over the past 90 days. This year's numbers have soared 91.3% to $1.53 per share, while next year's estimates have leapt almost 100% to $2.00 per share over that time period. All six analysts have raised their projections for this year and next. The company has only been public for three quarters, but it has exceeded estimates in each of them by an average of about 34%.

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Wednesday, November 22, 2006

(RVSB) - Riverview Bancorp, Inc - Two analysts upped their estimates for two years

Riverview Bancorp, Inc. (RVSB), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in four out of the past five quarters by an average margin of 10.4%. The company recently reported record second-quarter fiscal 2007 profits. Consensus estimates for both this year and next have been trending higher. RVSB has a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, compared to 4.9 for the market. It is currently yielding 2.9%.

Full Analysis

Riverview Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Riverview Community Bank that provides various community banking services to commercial and retail customers in Washington and Oregon.

RVSB topped the Street’s earnings estimate in four out of the past five quarters by an average margin of 10.4%. In two out of the four quarters the company managed to surprise by a double-digit percentage.

On Oct 24, RVSB reported second-quarter fiscal 2007 profits of $3.0 million, or 26 cents per share. The result beat the consensus estimate by a penny and topped earnings in the prior-year period by a solid 15.6%. Revenues increased 7.5% to $11.4 million compared to $10.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. The company stated that excellent loan growth and a continued focus on operating efficiencies contributed to the record profits.

For the first six months of the year, profits soared 27.3% to $5.6 million versus $4.4 million for the first six months of last year. Revenues jumped 13.1% to $22.5 million from $19.9 million.

On Sep 21, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 10 cents per share. This marked a 5% boost over the prior quarter's dividend, after adjusting for the 2-for-1 stock split that was announced on Jul 27. RVSB has a current dividend yield of 2.9%.

The consensus estimate for this year currently resides at $1.02—marking a 4.1% increase when compared to the consensus of 30 days earlier. Profit forecasts for next year have risen 5.6% to $1.13 over the same period of time. Two analysts upped their estimates for both years. Earnings per share are projected to grow 10% over the next 3-5 years—in line with the expected growth rate of the industry.

RVSB is currently trading at a valuation of 14.6x trailing 12-month earnings and at 13.7x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.7x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.7x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, compared to 4.9 for the market.

The company’s return on equity, a common measure of profitability, of 12% betters the industry average of 9%.

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(JCP) - J.C. Penney Corporation, Inc - topped analysts’ earnings expectations in 13 out of the past 14 quarters by an average margin of 10.7%

J.C. Penney Corporation, Inc. (JCP), which was first featured as a Growth & Income stock on Aug 22, exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in 13 out of the past 14 quarters. The stock is up 20% since its debut. After reporting solid results for the third quarter, the company upped its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings per share guidance. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a current dividend yield of 0.89%.

Full Analysis

J.C. Penney Corporation, Inc. markets family apparel, jewelry, shoes, accessories and home furnishings. The company provides its merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and catalog/Internet.

JCP, which was first highlighted as a Growth and Income stock on Aug 22, is up nearly 20%. Furthermore, thanks to exceeding analysts’ earnings expectations, coupled with earnings estimates trending higher, the company holds the coveted status of a Zacks #1 Rank stock.

JCP topped analysts’ earnings expectations in 13 out of the past 14 quarters by an average margin of 10.7%. Furthermore, the company matched or beat estimates in 14 consecutive quarters.

On Nov 9, JCP reported third-quarter profits of $1.26 per share. With analysts expecting $1.22, the company surprised by 3.3%. When compared to the 94 cents posted in the prior-year period, earnings soared 34.0%. Revenues rose to $4.78 billion from $4.48 billion in the third quarter of 2005. Same-store sales, or sales in stores open at least one year, jumped 5.2%, which beat the company’s own estimate.

JCP opened 25 new stores, 22 in the off-mall format, during the quarter. The company previously announced that it would open 20 new stores nationwide on Oct 6. The simultaneous store openings in 13 states were part of the company’s Long Range Plan to make J.C. Penney an “easy and exciting place to shop.”

The company upped its earnings per share guidance for both the fourth quarter and the full year. Profits in the fourth quarter are now expected to come in around $1.94 per share, while the full-year’s profits are projected to be in the area of $4.82 per share.

Analysts responded to the company’s bullish guidance by adjusting their estimates upward. The consensus estimate for this quarter has risen 4.3% to $1.96 over the past 30 days. Upward revisions were submitted by 11 analysts. Profit forecasts for the full year jumped 4.1% to $4.85 over the same period of time, with 12 analysts upping their estimates. Earnings per share are projected to grow 16% over the next 3-5 years—in line with the expected growth rate of the industry.

On Sep 22, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of 18 cents per share of common stock. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.89% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.7%. JCP’s return on equity is very impressive at 26% and is in line with that of the industry average.

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(PLD) - Prologis - The company has exceeded earnings estimates in five straight quarters

Earnings estimates have jumped nicely over the past month for both this year and next. 2006 earnings have risen 10.8% to $3.58 per share over the past 30 days, while next year's estimates have increased an even more impressive 13.3% to $3.93 per share. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in five straight quarters.

Full Analysis

Prologis (PLD) owns and manages interests in more than 2,406 distribution facilities, service offices, and properties, spanning 407 million square feet of space in 81 markets, including North America (76% of total property square footage as of September 30, 2006), Europe (19%), and Asia/Pacific (6%). The company classifies its operations into two segments: Property Operations (PO) and Corporate Distribution Facilities Services (CDFS).

Prologis is the benchmark REIT owner and developer in the industrial distribution sector, and is poised to benefit most as the sector continues its broad recovery. Zacks Equity Research Analyst Greg Sukenik is encouraged by continued strength in PLD's CDFS business; gross proceeds from CDFS dispositions hit $429 million (including discontinued operations) in the 3rd quarter of this year, up 10% from the 3rd quarter of last year. Year to date gross CDFS proceeds are $1.27 billion, a 27% increase over the first three quarters of 2005.

The company has posted positive same store revenue, NOI, and occupancy growth over the past several quarters and Sukenik expects this trend to continue throughout the year. Overall, net absorption was positive in most of the company's North American markets in the 3rd quarter, and new supply coming on line is below historical norms. The company estimates that 67 million square feet of new space was absorbed in the top 30 North American markets in the first half of this year.

Prologis currently has a large international development pipeline. The company had $343 million of development starts in the 3rd quarter; $80 million in North America, $197 million in Europe, and $66 million in Asia. The biggest promise lies in Asia, where the company currently has $827 million under development.

Sukenik believes Asia could be the next big growth push for the company, and favor companies that have experience in this region, where development is especially tricky. Currently, the company's stabilized portfolio in Asia is now 98% leased.

Earnings estimates have jumped nicely over the past month for both this year and next. 2006 earnings have risen 10.8% to $3.58 per share over the past 30 days, while next year's estimates have increased an even more impressive 13.3% to $3.93 per share. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in five straight quarters.

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Tuesday, November 21, 2006

(AXE) - Anixter International, Inc - company surprised to the upside by an impressive 20.6% - analysts also submitted upward revisions for next year

Anixter International, Inc. (AXE), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in 14 out of the past 16 quarters, most recently by 20.6%. Earnings per share are projected to grow 14% over the next 3-5 years. Consensus estimates for both this year and next have been trending higher.

The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, compared to 4.9 for the market. AXE’s return on equity of 20% crushes the industry average of 8%. Full Analysis Anixter International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, distributes communications and specialty wire and cable products, fasteners and small parts. The company distributes its products in North America, Europe, Latin America and the Asia Pacific. AXE’s history of exceeding analysts’ earnings expectations is truly remarkable.

The company topped the Street’s estimate in 14 out of the past 16 quarters by an average margin of 13.8%. AXE met or beat the consensus estimate for 16 consecutive quarters. Earnings per share grew 28.3% over the past five years. On Oct 24, AXE reported third-quarter profits of $1.23 per share. With analysts calling for $1.02, the company surprised to the upside by an impressive 20.6%. Compared to earnings of 62 cents in the prior-year period, the result was up 98.4%. Revenues were a record $1.33 billion versus $1.01 billion in the year ago quarter. Included in the revenue figure were sales of $13.6 million from the acquisition of IMS, Inc. in May 2006.

President and CEO Robert Grubbs stated, “Our focus on supply chain services and our continued progress in the security and OEM markets, along with solid growth in our core markets, produced record sales and operating results in the third quarter.” For the first nine months of the year, profits came in at $156.9 million compared to $69.9 million for the first nine months of 2005. Revenues jumped 29.1% to $3.64 billion from $2.82 billion. AXE increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past three years. The company grew profits for the past two. Consensus estimates for this year and next have been on the rise. Profit forecasts for this year increased 5.1% to $4.10 over the past 30 days.

Two analysts upped their estimates. The consensus for 2007 currently sits at $4.57 and represents a 4.6% jump over the same period of time. Two analysts also submitted upward revisions for next year. Earnings per share are projected to grow 14% over the next 3-5 years. AXE is currently trading at a valuation of 14.9x trailing 12-month earnings and at 13.8x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.7x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.7x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, compared to 4.9 for the market. AXE’s return on equity, a common measure of profitability, of 20% crushes the industry average of 8%.

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(RL) - Polo Ralph Lauren Corp - Upward revisions were submitted by nine analysts - exceeded analysts’ expectations for 11 consecutive quarters

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) recently raised its fiscal 2007 earnings per share guidance after releasing solid results for the second quarter and first half of the year. Consensus estimates for both this year and next have been on the rise for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. Earnings per share are projected to grow 16% over the next 3-5 years.

RL’s return on equity of 18% betters the industry average of 12%. Full Analysis Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation is engaged in the design, marketing and distribution of premium lifestyle products. The company offers apparel products, accessories, products for the home and fragrance and skin care products. RL sells its products to department stores, specialty stores and golf and pro shops in the United States and internationally, as well as through its full price and outlet stores, and Polo.com, its e-commerce site.

RL exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations for 11 consecutive quarters. On Nov 8, RL reported second-quarter fiscal 2007 profits of $137 million, or $1.28 per share. Compared to profits in the prior-year period of 97 cents per share, earnings soared 32.0%. The result also amounted to a 20.8% positive surprise with analysts calling for $1.06. Net revenues jumped 13.6% to $1.17 billion, compared to $1.03 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. For the first half of the year, net income ballooned 40.0% to $217 million from $155 million in the first half of fiscal 2006. Net revenues increased 19.1% to $2.12 billion, versus $1.78 billion last year. RL increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past eight years. Profits grew for the past two.

Chairman and CEO Ralph Lauren stated, “We are a strong company that has been built on quality with a long-term view. It is never of the moment. We have built a powerful business because we are connected—in vision, in fashion and in how we run the company.” In addition to releasing strong results for the second quarter and first half of the year, RL raised its fiscal 2007 earnings per share guidance to between $3.50 and $3.60. The company’s previous outlook called for profits between $3.25 and $3.35 per share. Analysts reacted to the company’s revised guidance by upping their profit forecasts for both fiscal 2007 and fiscal 2008. The consensus estimate for this year increased 6.9% to $3.59 over the past 30 days. Five analysts revised their estimates upward.

Estimates for fiscal 2008 currently sit at $3.97. This represents a 5.6% jump over the same period of time. Upward revisions were submitted by nine analysts. Earnings per share are projected to grow 16% over the next 3-5 years. The industry is expected to grow at a 15% clip. The Board of Directors announced a quarterly cash dividend of five cents per share of common stock on Sep 18. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.26% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.34%. The Board also authorized a $250 million stock repurchase program on Aug 15. During the second quarter, RL bought back one million shares for a total cost of $62 million. RL’s return on equity of 18% betters the industry average of 12%.

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(MIPS) - MIPS Technologies, Inc - this year's estimates have jumped 21.7%, while next year's have risen almost 54%

MIPS Technologies, Inc.'s business is on fire. The company has substantially exceeded earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters. Two analysts have raised their projections for this year and next. Over the past month, this year's estimates have jumped 21.7%, while next year's have risen almost 54%.

Full Analysis

MIPS Technologies, Inc. (MIPS) develops embedded processors and related intellectual property for use in performance-oriented markets, such as digital entertainment, wired and wireless communications (including broadband access), office automation, security, and automotive markets.

Its designs are based on its 32-bit and 64-bit reduced instruction set computing architectures. The company licenses its MIPS32 and MIPS64 instruction-set architectures, application-specific extensions, core designs, and other related intellectual property to semiconductor companies and system original equipment manufacturers.

The company's business is on fire, even though its fiscal first-quarter earnings report was delayed due to stock-based compensation. Revenue in the first quarter was $19.7 million, an increase of 8% over the prior quarter revenue of $18.3 million, and an increase of 65% from the $11.9 million in revenue reported in the first fiscal quarter a year ago.

Revenue from royalties was $11.2 million, an increase of 39% from the $8.1 million reported in the first quarter a year ago. Contract revenue was $8.5 million, an increase of 7% from the $7.9 million reported in the prior quarter and an increase of 119% from the $3.9 million reported in the first quarter a year ago.

"We had an excellent first quarter, with revenue up 65% year-over- year; this is the highest revenue level since early 2001," said John Bourgoin, president and CEO. "MIPS earned strong royalties from three key market segments: digital TV, consumer, and broadband. Our strength in those and other markets drove MIPS-Based(TM) unit shipments to 90 million last quarter, continuing our impressive royalty growth."

MIPS has substantially exceeded earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters. Two analysts have raised their projections for this year and next. Over the past month, this year's estimates have jumped 21.7%, while next year's have risen almost 54%.

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Monday, November 20, 2006

(NKE) - (JCP) - (HD) - (FDX) - (C) - "Look Beyond the Big Name" - Richard Moroney, Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter

Richard Moroney, editor of the Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter, lists three attributes of great companies, and tips investors can use to discern whether a great company is a great investment. Benefit from this featured expert’s insight and check out a few companies that poses the attributes outlined by Moroney. Afterward, take a look at samples from Moroney’s Buy List.

Commentary from November 13

Investors like to buy companies they recognize — large, mature companies that make products many people use. Unfortunately, not all great companies make great investments.

In the 1960s and early 1970s, market pundits touted the “Nifty 50,” which included such companies as Coca-Cola (KO), IBM (IBM), Xerox (XRX), Gillette, and Polaroid. Most had long growth histories, solid prospects, understandable businesses, and ubiquitous products. These were “one-decision” stocks, investments to buy and hold forever.

But owners of many Nifty 50 stocks took a hit in the 1970s. Many great companies delivered solid sales and profit growth through much of the 1970s but became incredibly expensive, trading at price/earnings ratios well above the market average. Such premiums tend to shrink over time, limiting stocks’ appreciation potential even in periods of good profit growth. And over the years, many of the top companies of the 1960s fell on hard times, seeing sales and profit growth slow and profit margins erode.

Very few companies can stay at the top of the mountain for decades — even great companies with strong business models and good management fall prey to economic slowdowns, new competition, or changing markets. Following are three attributes of great companies, and tips investors can use to discern whether a great company is a great investment.

*Powerful brands. Brands like Coke, Toyota, and Mercedes-Benz are worth billions of dollars. Brands usually rise to prominence through a mix of customer satisfaction and staying power. But companies like General Motors (GM) and Bristol- Myers Squibb (BMY) serve as a warning that brand strength does not always translate into operational strength. Investors who like to buy stocks they recognize should look beyond the brand and consider the fundamentals.

*Leading market position. When it comes to stock prices, the big dog doesn’t always lead the pack. Consider Dell (DELL): This great company has lost a step operationally, and the shares have paid the price, falling 42% since the start of 2005. How can you tell when an industry leader is past its prime? Start by looking at profit estimates. When a company that usually exceeds estimates starts matching the number — or worse, missing — take another look at the fundamentals.

*Growth history. It is easy to buy companies with strong growth histories — they help investors sleep well at night. But Richard Moroney and his team’s back-tests suggest that long-term sales and profit growth are not especially good predictors of future outperformance. Sometimes economic conditions change quickly and competitors move in. And sometimes the top growers become so expensive that even a small misstep will send the stock through the floor.

If you want to buy household names that also happen to be great investments, Quadrix® can help. The Quadrix stock-rating system considers metrics ranging from profit margins to profit and sales growth to earnings- estimate trends — and can help steer clear of quality companies that are no longer quality stocks.

For a look at a couple of great companies that are also great stocks, read on.

Citigroup (C) offers a balanced mix of consumer, business, and investment-banking services, and dominates many of its product categories. The world’s largest financial- services firm plans additional expansion in the U.S. and overseas. In recent months, Citigroup bought a stake in Turkey’s third-largest lender and Central America’s largest credit card issuer. According to news reports, the company is close to a $3 billion deal to buy a stake in China’s Guangdong Development Bank, with $48 billion in assets.

Management has begun several initiatives to improve its competitive position and protect its turf: The bank plans to broaden its “distribution footprint” in the U.S. to reach more customers and reduce its number of data centers from 43 at the end of 2006 to 29 by 2009. And by simplifying its information-technology system, Citigroup expects to garner $2 billion in savings over the next three years.

FedEx (FDX) is the world’s leading provider of guaranteed express-delivery services and North America’s No. 2 package-delivery company. To boost growth and profitability, FedEx is expanding into higher-margin domestic and international markets. Strong volume growth has sparked FedEx to announced a 5.5% increase in air-shipment rates starting Jan. 1, the second consecutive annual increase. Volume growth and the price hike, coupled with cost-cutting measures, should boost profit margins in coming quarters. FedEx has extended its brand to more retail customers through Kinko’s copy centers, which it acquired in 2004.

In recent years, FedEx has spent heavily to expand its network in Europe and Asia and increase its delivery capacity on flights between the two continents. FedEx makes more flights to and from the fast-growing China market than any other cargo carrier.

Buy List stocks include:

Home Depot (HD) is the one of world's largest home improvement retailer. The company offers a level of service unprecedented among warehouse-style retailers. Home Depot stores cater to do-it-yourselfers, as well as home improvement, construction and building maintenance professionals. The Home Depot currently operates in the USA, Canada, Chile, Puerto Rico, and Argentina. The company also operates EXPO Design Centers across the U.S. and Villager's Hardware in New Jersey.

J.C. Penney (JCP) is a major retailer operating in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico and Chile. The company also has majority interest in a Brazilian department store chain. The major portion of the company's business consists of providing merchandise and services to consumers through department stores that include catalog departments. The company markets predominantly family apparel, jewelry, shoes, accessories, and home furnishings. The company also has several direct marketing subsidiaries, the principal of which is J.C. Penney Life Insurance Company.

Nike’s (NKE) principal business activity involves the design, development and worldwide marketing of high quality footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessory products. NIKE is the one of the largest sellers of athletic footwear and athletic apparel in the world. The company sells its products to retail accounts in the United States and through a mix of independent distributors, licensees and subsidiaries in numerous countries around the world.

This article highlights the commentary of Richard Moroney for the Zacks.com audience. Richard Moroney provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "Dow Theory Forecasts" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "Dow Theory Forecasts" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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(BKS) - Barnes & Noble - Bill Martin, editor of the FindProfit newsletter

Bill Martin, editor of the FindProfit newsletter, explains that Barnes & Noble turned in a good quarter this time out as same-store sales trended above the company's forecast for flat year-over-year comparables. Take a look at what this featured expert has to say regarding the company’s report for the third quarter.

Quick Hit Alert from November 16

Click here to find out more!
Bookseller Barnes & Noble (BKS) reported third-quarter results and reaffirmed its full-year outlook before the bell this morning.

For Q3, BKS reported a net loss of -$2.8 million, or -4 cents per share, compared to net income of $327k, or breakeven on a per share basis, a year ago. The EPS results were at the high end of the company's previous guidance. Earnings were -3 cents per share lower due to the impact of stock-based compensation expenses. Sales, meanwhile, increased 3% to $1.11 billion.

At BKS' namesake stores, sales totaled $972 million, up 4% compared to a year ago, and same-store sales were up 2%. At B. Dalton, sales were $20.5 million, down -28% from a year earlier due to store closings and a -5% drop in same-store sales. Online sales, meanwhile, fell -0.5% to $95.8 million. BKS' sales were helped by bestsellers from Mitch Albom, Barack Obama, and John Grisham.

BKS indicated that it will not be able to file its 10-Q in a timely manner as a result of its ongoing internal review of stock-option practices. The company also said that it will not buy back shares under its repurchase program until all filings have been completed.

Looking forward, BKS said it expects to post a Q4 profit of $1.86 to $1.96 per share, including stock-based compensation expenses of -3 cents per share. For the full year, BKS continues to expect earnings of $2.20 to $2.30 per share, which includes stock-based compensation expenses of -14 cents per share.

Bottom Line: BKS turned in a good quarter this time out as same-store sales trended above the company's forecast for flat year-over-year comparables. The company's gross margin also improved slightly to 29.8% from 29.6% a year ago due to direct sourcing and self publishing books. On its conference call, the company said it continues to expect free cash flow of approximately $200 million for the year.

Nonetheless, the stock is trading nearly -5% lower today. The primary reason for this is that BKS has already had a good move off its lows over the last couple of months, and, as is so often the case, investors are using the earnings report as an opportunity to take profits. In addition, Q4 guidance wasn't quite as solid as investors would have liked, and there was a lack of visibility on how much BKS' more-aggressive discounting as part of the company's membership program will impact its margins in Q4.

From Bill Martin and team’s point of view, however, BKS is not a growth story but an undervalued cash flow story, and the inherent net value in this investment remains intact.

This article highlights the commentary of Bill Martin for the Zacks.com audience. Bill Martin provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "FindProfit" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "FindProfit" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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(MRO) - (CNW) - (AVT) - Gregory Spear, editor of The Spear Report newsletter

Gregory Spear, editor of The Spear Report newsletter, explains that a tame Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported on Thursday followed a steep drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) earlier in the week. This featured expert also provides an outlook on the first half of 2007. Read his commentary and take a look at a few of the stocks from Spear’s Consensus Buy List.

Commentary from November 17

On a technical basis, the major indices are due for at least a short correction sometime over the next few days to a week, but that said, Gregory Spear and his team will address the larger trend today.

Over the last few weeks Spear and his team have discussed the powerful trending movement in the major indices and speculated about some reasons for its undeniable persistence. Among the factors they cited were resilient emerging markets, an accommodative Federal Reserve, stable housing prices and impressive corporate earnings. In the last week we have had more good economic news, which has revived hope for a soft landing in 2007 despite widely expected weakness in the housing industry. A tame Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported on Thursday followed a steep drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) earlier in the week. The headline PPI number fell 1.6%, with the core reading plunging 0.9%, due to a sharp decline in vehicle prices. Some retail sales data were soft due to a decline in gasoline prices, but Consensus companies tied to the consumer have been outperforming.

The inflation data endorses the Fed’s prognosis for a slowing economy that should be able to avoid a recession. Based on the action in the Fed funds futures, the likelihood is quite high that the Fed will stay “on pause” during the first half of 2007. Although a 5% yield on the 10-year note is by no means low, it lies within the parameters of a Goldilocks economic scenario that would be quite supportive of equities over the next few quarters. Another bullish sign occurred in the bond market on Thursday, after the CPI data was released. Bond yields rose on the news, which is, at first glance, a counterintuitive response to a softening economy. Over the last two months, however, bond traders have been betting on a harder landing than the equity market. The rally in bond yields indicates an attitude adjustment in their skepticism toward a more benign economic outlook for 2007.

Consensus Buy List stocks include:

Marathon Oil (MRO) is an energy company engaged in the worldwide exploration, production and transportation of crude oil and natural gas. The company refines, markets and transports petroleum products in the United States through Marathon Ashland Petroleum LLC, a joint venture company between Marathon and Ashland, Inc.

Conway Inc. (CNW) is a management company of global supply-chain services with businesses in regional less-than-truckload trucking, multi-modal full truckload, multi-client warehousing and expedited ground transport; domestic and international airfreight, ocean freight, customs brokerage and logistics services; full-service logistics management; postal sortation and transportation services, and trailer manufacturing.

Avnet (AVT) is one of the world's largest industrial distributors of electronic components and computer products. The company is a vital link in the chain that connects suppliers of semiconductors, interconnect products, passive and electromechanical devices to original equipment manufacturers and contract manufacturers that design and build the electronic equipment for end-market use, and to other industrial customers. In addition, the company distributes a variety of computer products and services to both the end user and the reseller channels.

This article highlights the commentary of Gregory R. Spear for the Zacks.com audience. Gregory R. Spear provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "The Spear Report" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "The Spear Report" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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(CEPH) - Nadine Wong, BioTech Stock Report newsletter

Nadine Wong, editor of the BioTech Stock Report newsletter, highlights a stock that has gone up 31% within a six-month period. Read this featured expert’s update on Cephalonn and its upcoming launch of three potentially significant products over the next 18 months.

Commentary from November 16

Although Cephalon may lose some product exclusivity such as Provigil and Actiq, Cephalon’s (CEPH) sales will nearly double from $1 billion in 2004 to approximately $2 billion in 2008 with the launch of three potentially significant products over the next 18 months. These include Vivitrol (alcohol dependence) and Fentora (breakthrough cancer pain), which were both recently approved by the FDA for market. And, not too far behind is Nuvigil (narcolepsy), which has an approvable letter with a PDUFA date in late 2006.

Cephalon is confident in Nuvigil’s potential as the company is pursuing additional patents for the drug. In late development, the company has Treanda (non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma), which is in Phase III clinical trials.

And recently, Cephalon announced positive Fentora data for its breakthrough lower back pain study. Cephalon should file a sNDA for Fentora in the second half of 2007 to expand Fentora’s label beyond breakthrough cancer pain to merely breakthrough pain. Fentora has growth potential which has fueled the momentum for Cephalon’s share price higher. Nadine Wong and her team started to follow Cephalon when it was trading around $58 and within 6 months, it has gone up 31%. Not bad.

This article highlights the commentary of Dr. Scott W. & Nadine Wong for the Zacks.com audience. Dr. Scott W. & Nadine Wong provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "BioTech Stock Report" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "BioTech Stock Report" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now.

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