(UTR) - Unitrin, Inc - posted a 127.5% positive earnings surprise for the third quarter

Unitrin, Inc. (UTR) exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in 11 out of the past 13 quarters by an average margin of 46.1%. Consensus estimates for both this quarter and for the full year have shot upward over the past two months. On Nov 1, the Board of Directors authorized an increase in its share repurchase program and also declared a quarterly cash dividend of 44 cents per share. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, compared to 4.8 for the market. Full Analysis Unitrin, Inc. is a $3 billion financial services company that specializes in property and casualty insurance, life and health insurance and consumer finance for individuals, families and small businesses. UTR beat the Street’s earnings estimate in 11 out of the past 13 quarters by an average margin of 46.1%. In nine out of the 11 quarters, the company managed to surprise by at least a double-digit percentage. On Oct 31, UTR delighted investors when it posted a 127.5% positive earnings surprise for the third quarter. Earnings per share came in at $1.16, compared to the consensus estimate of 51 cents. Profits in the prior-year period amounted to 33 cents per share, marking a 251.5% year-over-year improvement for UTR. Total revenues climbed to $778.9 million, compared to $754.1 million for the third quarter of 2005. For the first nine months of the year, UTR’s profits rose 31.2% to $221.5 million from $168.8 million during the first nine months of 2005. Revenues climbed slightly to $2.31 billion from $2.29 billion. The company increased revenues and grew profits for three years running. Consensus estimates for both this quarter and for the full year have shot upward over the past two months. Estimates for this quarter jumped 21.8% to 95 cents, while profit forecasts for this year have risen 29.7% to $3.84. Earnings per share are projected to grow 10% over the next 3-5 years. On Nov 1, the Board of Directors authorized an increase in its share repurchase program by six million shares. At the time of the announcement, the company had 750,000 shares remaining under its previous authorization. During the third quarter, UTR bought back approximately 1.1 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $47.1 million. The Board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of 44 cents per share. UTR has a current dividend yield of 3.5% and a five-year average dividend yield of 4.4%. UTR is currently trading at a valuation of 13.2x both trailing 12-month and current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.5x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.8x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, compared to 4.8 for the market. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(SYK) - Stryker Corp - return on equity (ROE) is triple the industry average--22% compared to 7%

Stryker Corporation (SYK) met or beat analysts’ earnings expectations in 15 out of the past 16 quarters. Earnings per share are expected to grow 19% over the next 3-5 years, while the industry is forecasted to grow at a 17% clip. On Dec 6, the Board of Directors doubled its year-end cash dividend to 22 cents per share. The company’s return on equity more than triples that of the industry average—22% compared to 7%. Full Analysis Stryker Corporation engages in the development, manufacture and marketing of orthopedic products and medical specialties worldwide. The company also provides outpatient physical therapy services, including physical, occupational and speech therapy services to patients recovering from orthopedic or neurological illness and injury. Over the past 16 quarters, SYK failed to meet or beat analysts’ earnings expectations on only one occasion. In fact, it missed by only a penny. Over this period of time, the company beat the Street’s estimate 10 times. Earnings per share grew 26.2% over the past five years. On Oct 17, SYK posted third-quarter earnings per share of 46 cents, which were in line with the consensus estimate. Compared to profits of 40 cents per share in the prior-year period, the result marked a 15.0% year-over-year improvement. Revenues jumped 10.3% to $1.29 billion from $1.17 billion in the third quarter of 2005. An 11% increase in the company’s reconstructive products led the way. SYK is expected to release results for the fourth quarter on Jan 25, 2007. President and CEO Stephen P. MacMillan stated, “We are pleased to report another strong quarter with double-digit sales growth and very strong earnings growth led by the resurgence of our U.S. Orthopedics division.” For the first nine months of the year, profits came in at $549.8 million compared to $465.2 million for the first nine months of 2005. Revenues climbed 9.8% to $3.94 billion from $3.59 billion. SYK increased revenues and expanded gross margins for the past nine years. The company grew profits for six years running. Earnings per share are expected to grow 19% over the next 3-5 years, while the industry is forecasted to grow at a 17% clip. On Dec 6, the Board of Directors declared a year-end cash dividend of 22 cents per share. This doubled the 11-cent dividend announced in December 2005. MacMillan stated, “This increased dividend reflects the company's strong cash flow generation capability and allows us to return increased value to shareholders.” SYK is currently yielding 0.40%. The company’s return on equity, a common measure of profitability, more than triples that of the industry average—22% compared to 7%. SYK is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock. Zacks #2 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of 21.6% since 1988. Because the Zacks Rank has a market cap bias, Growth & Income investors may find a greater number of large-cap stocks by considering both Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stocks in their selection criteria. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(TSYS) - TeleCommunication Systems, Inc - exceeded earnings estimates by over 100% in each of the past three quarters

TSYS has exceeded earnings estimates by over 100% in each of the past three quarters. One out of the two analysts covering the stock raised his numbers for this year. Over the past two months, this year's estimates have increased from break-even to four cents per share. Earnings are expected to jump another 25% next year. Full Analysis TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. (TSYS) engages in the development and application of wireless data communications technology primarily in the United States and internationally. It has two segments, Commercial Applications and Government. In addition, the company offers wireless data solutions that unite messaging, and synchronization and Web technologies, which include package and vehicle tracking, productivity tools, and the ability to capture digital signatures for proof of delivery to installed base of logistics customers, as well as provides real-time financial market data to wireless device users under annual subscriber contracts in the United States and Europe. The company reported a surprise profit in its third quarter. Analysts expected a loss of a penny per share, but the company came in with a profit of two cents per share. This was the TSYS's third consecutive profitable quarter. Revenue from continuing operations was $30.8 million, up 6% from $29.2 million in the third quarter of 2005. The U.S. Navy Selected TCS for SATCOM Terminal Program. The Space and Naval Warfare (SPAWAR) Systems Center in North Charleston, SC, selected TCS as one of eight vendors to provide satellite communications products under a five-year program. The aggregate value of the program is expected to reach approximately $50 million. Shipments are expected to begin during the fourth quarter 2006. "This is our third consecutive quarter of positive income from continuing operations," noted Maurice B. Tose, TCS chairman, president and CEO, "and TCS expects to meet or exceed the 2006 results we anticipated going into the year. The quarter was also highlighted by a number of major wins. Our Government segment was taken to a new level when TCS was selected as one of six prime contractors for a multi-billion dollar world wide satellite services contract." Tose added, "During the quarter we also continued to optimize benefits from our investment in intellectual property. We also secured our 46th U.S. patent, and took other steps to monetize the value of this growing portfolio. We worked intensively with prospective buyers of our Enterprise division assets and expect to conclude dispositions by year-end." TSYS has exceeded earnings estimates by over 100% in each of the past three quarters. One out of the two analysts covering the stock raised his numbers for this year. Over the past two months, this year's estimates have increased from break-even to four cents per share. Earnings are expected to jump another 25% next year. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(TNL) - Technitrol, Inc - topped analysts’ earnings expectations for the past five quarters by an average margin of 26.4%

Technitrol, Inc. (TNL) exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations for the past five quarters by an average margin of 26.4%. Consensus earnings estimates for both this year and next have risen over the past two months. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a current dividend yield of 1.5% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.59%. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.0, compared to 4.8 for the market. Full Analysis Technitrol, Inc. is a worldwide producer of electronic components, electrical contacts and assemblies and other precision-engineered parts and materials for manufacturers in the data networking, broadband/Internet access, telecommunications, military/aerospace, automotive and electrical equipment industries. TNL topped analysts’ earnings expectations for the past five quarters by an average margin of 26.4%. During each the last four quarters, the company surprised by a double-digit percentage. On Oct 30, TNL reported third-quarter earnings per share of 49 cents. The result amounted to a 14.0% positive earnings surprise with analysts projecting 43 cents per share. Even more remarkable was the year-over-year improvement—profits in the prior-year period were 16 cents per share. Consolidated revenues ballooned 75.1% to $257.7 million from $147.2 million in the third quarter of 2005. For the first nine months of the year, profits came in at $42.4 million versus a loss of $33.2 million for the first nine months of last year. Revenues soared 66.2% to $718.0 million from $431.9 million. TNL recently announced that one of its business segments, Pulse, a worldwide leader in electronic component and subassembly design and manufacturing, acquired certain Radiall/Larsen assets owned by Radiall Incorporated. As a result, the company will expand its antenna portfolio well beyond mobile handset applications. Vice President Jouni Anttila stated, “Larsen's portfolio complements Pulse's mobile in-building WiFi and WiMax solutions, while opening new market segments such as automotive telematics, RFID and public safety.” The consensus earnings estimate for this year currently resides at $1.71. This represents a six-cent improvement when compared to the consensus of 60 days earlier. Profit forecasts for next year jumped seven cents to $1.99 over the same period of time. On Oct 31, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 8.75 cents per common share of stock. The dividend is payable on Jan 19, 2007 to shareholders of record as of Jan 5, 2007. TNL has a current dividend yield of 1.5% and a five-year average dividend yield of 0.59%. TNL is currently trading at a valuation of 14.4x trailing 12-month earnings and at 13.4x current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 17.3x trailing 12-month earnings and at 16.6x its current fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.0, compared to 4.8 for the market. TNL’s return on equity nearly doubles that of the industry average—14% compared to 8%. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(NDSN) - Nordson Corp - Three of the four covering analysts boosted their estimates

Nordson Corporation (NDSN) was first highlighted as a Growth and Income pick on Mar 24, and it continues to exceed analysts’ earnings expectations. Furthermore, earnings estimates keep trending higher. As a result, the company is still a Zacks #1 Rank stock. The Board of Directors boosted its quarterly cash dividend to 17.5 cents per common share from 17 cents in early December. NDSN is currently yielding 1.4%. Full Analysis Nordson Corporation is the world's leading manufacturer of systems that apply adhesives, sealants and coatings during manufacturing operations. The company’s products are used around the world in the appliance, automotive, bookbinding, container, converting, electronics, food and beverage, furniture, life sciences, medical, metal finishing, nonwovens, packaging, semiconductor and other industries. When NDSN made its debut as a Growth and Income stock on Mar 24, the company had topped the consensus earnings estimate in the past two quarters by an average margin of 23.7%. Since then, NDSN has beaten the Street’s estimate on three additional occasions, two of which amounted to double-digit percentage surprises. Most importantly, the company is still a Zacks #1 Rank stock. On Dec 19, NDSN posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2006 profits of 87 cents per share, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 72 cents by an impressive 20.8%. Compared to earnings of 80 cents in the prior-year period, the result marked an 8.8% year-over-year improvement. Revenues climbed slightly to $241.5 million from $238.9 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005. Fourth-quarter revenues represented a new record for the company. For the entire fiscal year, profits increased 15.7% to $90.6 million, compared to $78.3 million in the prior-year period. Revenues jumped 7.2% to $892.2 million, versus $832.2 million in fiscal 2005. Chairman and CEO Edward P. Campbell stated, “I am pleased by Nordson's strong performance in fiscal year 2006, with both our sales volume and earnings per share reaching record levels.” The consensus estimate for this year currently sits at $3.02 per share. When compared to the consensus of a week earlier, analysts upped their estimates by 6.3%. Three of the four covering analysts boosted their estimates. Profit forecasts for next year call for $3.45 per share—representing a 15.0% increase over the same period of time. One of the two covering analysts raised his forecast. Earnings per share are projected to grow 19% over the next 3-5 years. The industry is expected to grow at a 14% clip. On Dec 6, the Board of Directors boosted its quarterly cash dividend to 17.5 cents per common share from 17 cents. The increase represents the 44th consecutive year of annual dividend increases. The company has a current dividend yield of 1.4% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.9%. The Board also approved the purchase of up to one million shares of the company's stock over a three-year period. NDSN’s return on equity easily tops that of the industry average—23% compared to 14%. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(IRBT) - iRobot Corp - exceeded earnings estimates by an average of almost 200% over the past two quarters

The company has exceeded earnings estimates by an average of almost 200% over the past two quarters. Four out of six analysts covering the stock have raised their forecasts for this year. Over the past 90 days, this year's estimates have more than doubled, climbing eight cents to 15 cents per share. Earnings are expected to rise 119% to 33 cents per share next year. Full Analysis iRobot Corporation (IRBT) engages in the design, development, and sale of robots for the consumer, military, government security, and law enforcement markets. It operates in two segments: Home Robots, and Government and Industrial. The Home Robots segment offers mobile robots used in the maintenance of domestic households sold primarily to retail outlets. The Government and Industrial segment offers robots used by the United States and foreign governments, primarily for reconnaissance and bomb disposal missions. Its products include iRobot PackBot Scout, a mobile robot, designed for military operations in urban terrain and other battle missions; iRobot PackBot Explorer, which is designed for performing real-time targeting and battle damage assessment in inaccessible areas; iRobot PackBot EOD, a rugged robot, designed to conduct explosive ordnance disposal, hazardous materials, search-and-surveillance, and other law enforcement tasks for bomb squads, SWAT teams, military units, and other authorities. The company reported a record third quarter in terms of earnings. IRBT said that earnings per share came in at 39 cents, blowing away the consensus estimate of nine cents. Revenues for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2006 increased to $127.8 million, compared with $95.5 million for the same period a year ago. Gross profit for the third quarter grew to $23.0 million (41.8% of sales), compared with $20.7 million (39.5% of sales) in the third quarter of 2005. During the quarter, iRobot expanded its line of home robots. The company introduced the iRobot Dirt Dog(TM) Workshop Robot, designed for garages, basements and workbench zones, and the iRobot Roomba® for Pets. "We reported record quarterly revenues and earnings, the highest in our company's history, while continuing to invest in the growth of the company," said Colin Angle, co-founder and chief executive officer of iRobot. "Moving forward, we will continue our product line expansion and invest in cutting edge research programs, while strengthening iRobot's position as the leader in robot technology." The company has exceeded earnings estimates by an average of almost 200% over the past two quarters. Four out of six analysts covering the stock have raised their forecasts for this year. Over the past 90 days, this year's estimates have more than doubled, climbing eight cents to 15 cents per share. Earnings are expected to rise 119% to 33 cents per share next year. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(FMD) - First Marblehead Corp - earnings estimates climb 17% in past 60 days

Analysts continue to be increasingly bullish on The First Marblehead Corporation (FMD). During the past 30 days, five out of the six covering analysts have raised their fiscal 2007 projections, causing the consensus estimate to rise by 14 cents to $3.67 per share. Full Analysis The First Marblehead Corporation provides outsourcing services for private education lending in the United States. It offers design and marketing, borrower inquiry and application, loan origination and disbursement and loan securitization services. Student loan programs are tailored to meet the needs of the respective customers, students, employees and members of national and regional financial institutions and educational institutions, as well as businesses and other enterprises. The company primarily focuses on loan programs for undergraduate, graduate and professional education, as well as on the primary and secondary school market. It also offers services such as private label programs and the guaranteed access to education programs. FMD has strategic relationship with The Education Resources Institute. FMD announced earlier this month that it expects to receive $89.6 million in up-front advisory fees in connection with a private loan securitization involving The National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-4. During its first-quarter, FMD generated advisory fees of $173.3 million. The reaction by analysts to the loan securitization was very favorable. Nearly all of the covering analysts raised their forecasts, causing the fiscal 2007 consensus estimate to rise by 14 cents to $3.67 per share. The recent revisions bring the cumulative 60-day advance in earnings estimates for fiscal 2007 to 54 cents, or 17%. Shares of First Marblehead have more than doubled in price this year, gaining nearly 10% in December alone. Nonetheless, the stock continues to trade a reasonable P/E multiple of 13.6. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(GS) - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc - new consensus estimate is 83 cents above the forecast of a month ago and $1.35 above the forecast of two months ago

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) ended its fiscal year by delivering a very bullish earnings report. The investment banking firm recently announced profits of $6.59 per share, easily surpassing expectations of $5.81 per share. Full Analysis The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a global investment banking and securities firm, providing a full range of investing, advisory and financing services worldwide. The company serves a substantial and diversified client base that includes institutions as well as high net worth and retail investors. GS was last highlighted as a Growth & Income pick on June 13. Since that time, GS has easily topped analysts’ forecasts twice and by wide margins. More impressively, positive surprises came after analysts raised their forecasts. Most recently, Goldman Sachs reported fiscal fourth-quarter profits of $6.59 per share, versus projections for $5.81 per share. Net revenues reached $9.41 billion. The company benefited from improvements in its investment banking, trading and asset management business units. Fixed income and commodities were a notable area of strength, though investment banking revenues were up 42% from a year ago. Following the release of the fiscal fourth-quarter report, nine brokerage analysts revised their forecasts for fiscal 2007. The new consensus estimate of $18.49 is 83 cents above the forecast of a month ago and $1.35 above the forecast of two months ago. Despite the impressive business momentum, GS continues to trade at a very reasonable P/E of just 12.3. The stock also yields a dividend of 0.7%. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(SMOD) - SMART Modular Tech - PEG ratio of 0.78 - Revenue increased 50% to $237.2 million

SMOD has a history of exceeding earnings estimates. The company has done so in each of the past four quarters by an average margin of about 14%. Four analysts have raised their forecasts for this year. Similarly, the company's average broker rating has improved from 1.5 to 1.4 over the past month. Over the past two months, this year's earnings estimates have increased seven cents to 89 cents per share. Full Analysis SMART Modular Technologies (WWH), Inc. (SMOD) engages in the design, manufacture, and supply of value added subsystems to original equipment manufacturers (OEM). The company offers a range of subsystem products that include memory modules and cards, embedded computing subsystems, and thin film transistor liquid crystal display products. SMOD also provides design, manufacturing, testing, and logistics services, as well as product-related logistics and services, such as procurement, inventory management, repair, test, warranty, retail and bulk packaging, and drop shipping services. Its products and services are used for a range of applications in the computing, networking, communications, printers, storage, and industrial markets worldwide. The company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates by almost 10%. Earnings per share came in at 23 cents versus the 21-cent consensus. Revenue increased 50% to $237.2 million from $158.3 million in the year-ago quarter. "We are pleased to deliver results that exceeded the high end of our revised guidance as we continue our track record of profitable growth," stated Iain MacKenzie, President and CEO of SMART. "Our value-add customer application focus has continued to bring us success in leveraging our strengths as the largest independent OEM focused manufacturer of electronic subsystems. Additionally, we have made progress in our revenue diversification strategy with another key design win in our Embedded and Display Group." SMOD has a history of exceeding earnings estimates. The company has done so in each of the past four quarters by an average margin of about 14%. Four analysts have raised their forecasts for this year. Similarly, the company's average broker rating has improved from 1.5 to 1.4 over the past month. Over the past two months, this year's earnings estimates have increased seven cents to 89 cents per share. The stock is currently trading at 11.7x next year's estimates of $1.07 per share, below the projected long-term growth rate of 15%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 0.78. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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Recession in 2007? - Jack Schannep, the Schannep Timing Indicator newsletter

Jack Schannep, editor of the Schannep Timing Indicator newsletter, explains that the broadening out of the burst real estate bubble is indeed occurring in late 2006. Read this featured expert’s “Bottom Line” commentary and find out what he has to say about the home building slump and auto sales. BOTTOM LINE: from December 1 Jack Schannep and his team have been on a “bull market top and recession watch” since this last up-leg began this summer because of the status of Schannep and his team’s “Three Tops and a Tumble”. Since then the home building slump has gotten worse faster than most predicted. Two weeks ago, Standard and Poors estimated that housing starts would drop to 1,500,000 in early ’07 from the then current 1,740,000. Actually, the very next day they were reported to be only 1,486,000. This past Monday the Wall Street Journal wrote “How Housing Slump is Risk to Big Three Rebound” and that “an increasing number of forecasts say (auto) sales could fall next year to their lowest level in nearly a decade.” So the broadening out of the burst real estate bubble is indeed occurring in late 2006. Jack Schannep, who deals in Spiders (SPY), Diamonds (DIA) and the iShares NYSE Composite Index (NYC), expects we’ll see more evidence of an approaching recession as the new year progresses. This article highlights the commentary of Jack Schannep for the Zacks.com audience. Jack Schannep provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "Schannep Timing Indicator & theDowTheory" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "Schannep Timing Indicator & theDowTheory" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now. Here’s How You Can Profit from the Pros Find out what other leading experts are saying about the market. And what stocks they are recommending. For free. Just sign up for our free email newsletter, Profit from the Pros, where we’ll give you the commentary, advice, and insight from those rare few experts who consistently beat the market year in, year out. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(MSFT) - (ORCL) - (TWX) - Dr. Melvin Pasternak, the StreetAuthority Swing Trader newsletter

Dr. Melvin Pasternak, editor of the StreetAuthority Swing Trader newsletter, offers his technical analysis of the S&P 500. Read this featured expert’s commentary and learn about the different economic indicators referenced by Dr. Pasternak. Afterward, take a look at some of the doctor’s stock profiles. The Primary Trend from December 18 Yet another stair has been added to the "stair step" advance of the S&P 500. On December 7th, the S&P hit a high of 1418.27 and then quickly backed off round-number resistance just shy of 1420. Over the next four trading days, the index retreated each time it tested that level. Last Thursday, however, corporate-friendly news gave the index the momentum needed to overcome the 1420 barrier. On Friday, the S&P ratcheted up to the next 10-point stair, hitting an intraday high of 1431.63 before retreating. Blowout earnings this past week from investment bankers Goldman Sachs (GS), Bear Stearns (BSC) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) helped set a bullish tone, which was reinforced by another batch of positive economic data. At its Tuesday meeting, the Fed reaffirmed that "readings on core inflation have been elevated" and warned that high levels of resource utilization have "the potential to sustain inflation pressures." On Friday, however, the latest inflation numbers proved benign, as the closely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat for November. At the same time, industrial production staged a modest recovery, ticking up 0.2% for the month. Those figures, coupled with a better than expected read on retail sales, suggested that the Fed's goal of steering the economy into a "soft landing" remains on track. For the week, the S&P gained a bit more than 15 points, closing just 4 points off its highs. While the rally was modest, it was enough to keep the index above the key Intermediate trendline drawn from the July low. That trendline currently intersects the chart at approximately 1398. The S&P continues to trade above all key moving averages. Most of these are sloping moderately higher, but the 10-week at 1389 is slanting sharply upward, reflecting the powerful Intermediate-term advance that is now close to six months old. Current resistance is at 1441, the level of the upper Bollinger band. This band has provided resistance throughout the uptrend, with the S&P escaping its confines only in September and October -- and even then briefly. The band is rising in conjunction with the 20-week moving average around which it is calculated. Over time, that means resistance will climb progressively higher. The Major bull market trendline drawn from the July 2004 low now crosses the chart near 1266, so a near-term test is almost inconceivable. The weekly indicators have been overbought since August, but the S&P has still advanced more than 120 points since that time. ADX and MACD remain on strong buy signals. RSI, after giving a weak sell signal, has climbed back above the key 70 level to finish the week at 74. After hugging the key 100 level the past several weeks, CCI has now bounced higher, closing at +122. Stochastics has been highly overbought for nearly five months and remains so now, with %K at 93 and %D also at 93. Both components of this indicator would have to slip below 80 to generate a sell signal. That is certainly improbable before the beginning of 2007. Short-term Trading Ideas include… Long Candidates: Microsoft (MSFT): Dr. Pasternak highlighted Microsoft in the November 13th newsletter at $29.24. On Thursday, the shares finally traded through the $30 level for the first time since 2002! MSFT has also created a base of $6, which projects a target in the low $30's Oracle (ORCL): After gapping nearly $2 higher when the company reported quarterly earnings, ORCL has since consolidated between the low-$17 and high-$19 range. Time Warner (TWX): Dr. Pasternak flagged TWX in the November 20th newsletter at $20.43. The stock has recently begun to trend higher after a prolonged trading range, and has bulled its way through $20 for the first time since 2004. Thus far, the shares have held that support. This article highlights the commentary of Dr. Melvin Pasternak for the Zacks.com audience. Dr. Melvin Pasternak provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "StreetAuthority Swing Trader" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "StreetAuthority Swing Trader" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now. Here’s How You Can Profit from the Pros Find out what other leading experts are saying about the market. And what stocks they are recommending. For free. Just sign up for our free email newsletter, Profit from the Pros, where we’ll give you the commentary, advice, and insight from those rare few experts who consistently beat the market year in, year out. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(HOC) - Holly - Gregory Spear, The Spear Report Professional Edition newsletter

Gregory Spear, editor of The Spear Report Professional Edition newsletter, explains that lately the market has been in a fairly regular rhythm of stair-stepping higher, and at the moment, it appears to be pausing before the next step up. Read this featured expert’s thoughts on developing a profit-taking plan. Then find out what he has to say about the energy sector. COMMENTARY from December 21 When large-caps in the Nasdaq are experiencing profit-taking, it is difficult for the market in general to make headway. In trader jargon, “the tape feels heavy.” Lately, however, the market has been in a fairly regular rhythm of stair-stepping higher, and at the moment, it appears to be pausing before the next step up. Gregory Spear and his team do not expect a tumble until January and even then, the selling is likely to be moderate. In using the word “moderate,” however, Spear and his team don’t mean to dismiss the possibility that the coming correction might be painful in the short-term if you are heavily long. It is important to avoid the deer- in-the-headlights response that may result from a sharp, sudden loss...followed by rationalizations like "I'm in it for the long term." Spear and his team have very little exposure to this market in their current portfolio, so a sudden correction is not going to hurt them. They know from SpearChat, however, that some Pro subscribers have a tendency to buy on their recommendations but lack a selling discipline. If you have been buying and holding over the last 5-6 months you are probably feeling rather smug. One subscriber mentioned having about 70 positions, most of which were quite profitable. It has been relatively easy to hold long positions during this rally, as pullbacks have been very, very mild. That won’t always be the case. Spear and his team suspect that the next correction will be “designed” to shake the tree rather hard. To avoid getting emotionally triggered by a sharp sell-off and selling into market weakness, perhaps at the bottom, Spear and his team suggest developing a profit-taking plan during the good times. Envision, if you will, 3-4 weeks of selling pressure in which the Dow and S&P 500 drop 5-10%, the Nasdaq drops 15-20%. How will you handle it? Imagine for a moment that the correction has already happened. Would you have preferred to take partial profits during previous strength? Did you put on a hedge early enough? Did you sell your losers in December? Were you greedy and complacent? Markets fall much faster than they rise. Did you have to endure giving back 30-50% of your 5-month gains in just a week or two? Now is the time to be thinking about this and taking steps to protect yourself. The volatility in the energy sector, which experienced another bout of selling on Wednesday despite an incremental increase in crude prices, is hard to get a handle on. At the end of the year, fund managers experience conflicting pressures: the need to protect profits and at the same time, close out the 2006 books without falling behind the benchmarks. Hedge funds, which get paid only for absolute, not relative, performance tend to adjust positions quickly and are likely to be the primary cause of the jerking around. Because such funds often concentrate holdings in hot sectors and use a great deal of leverage, when they unwind positions, the effects on smaller cap stocks can be rather dramatic. The unusually sharp rally in Holly (HOC) and various precious metal stocks on Tuesday is a case in point. Generally, most of those gains were reversed on Wednesday even though the prices of oil and gold were relatively flat yesterday. This article highlights the commentary of Gregory Spear for the Zacks.com audience. Gregory Spear provides insightful analysis, market commentary, and favorite recommendations on a timely basis in "The Spear Report Professional Edition" newsletter. Try it free for 30 days and see if you can improve your investment performance. Learn more about "The Spear Report Professional Edition" and 30-Day Free Trial. And get immediate access to current issues and special reports. Click here now. Here’s How You Can Profit from the Pros Find out what other leading experts are saying about the market. And what stocks they are recommending. For free. Just sign up for our free email newsletter, Profit from the Pros, where we’ll give you the commentary, advice, and insight from those rare few experts who consistently beat the market year in, year out. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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(DSM) - DSW, Inc - the past three quarters, DSW has surpassed expectations by an average of over 22%

The company has a nice recent history of significantly exceeding earnings estimates. Over the past three quarters, DSW has surpassed expectations by an average of over 22%. Year-over-year growth was also robust, averaging about 45% over that time. All three covering analyst raised their forecasts for this year. Over the past month, this year's earnings estimates have jumped 11 cents to $1.38 per share. Full Analysis DSW, Inc. (DSW) distributes and retails branded footwear in the United States. It offers a selection of brand name and designer dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men and women. The company also provides complementary selection of handbags, hosiery, and other accessories. In addition, it operates leased shoe departments for three nonaffiliated retailers and one affiliated retailer. As of July 29, 2006, DSW operated 205 stores located throughout the United States. Third-quarter profit rose nearly 47% to $16 million, or 36 cents per share, from $10.9 million, or 25 cents per share, a year ago. Sales climbed nearly 10% to $332.2 million from $302.2 million last year. The results topped Wall Street expectations of 27 cents per share. DSW also raised its forecast for fiscal 2006 to a range of $1.35 to $1.38 per share, up from a previous estimate of $1.24 to $1.27 per share, and above analysts' consensus forecast of $1.27 per share. Comparable store sales for the third quarter of 2006 increased 2.6% compared with the same period last year. The company has a nice recent history of significantly exceeding earnings estimates. Over the past three quarters, DSW has surpassed expectations by an average of over 22%. Year-over-year growth was also robust, averaging about 45% over that time. All three covering analyst raised their forecasts for this year. Over the past month, this year's earnings estimates have jumped 11 cents to $1.38 per share. DSW is currently trading at 24.4x next year's estimate of $1.62 per share. This is slightly above the projected long-term growth rate of 20%, giving the stock a PEG ratio of 1.22. Content Courtesy: Zacks Investment Research #1 Ranked Stocks Highlight Archive To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That is why we created the free special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. | Blog Home| VitalStocks Home

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