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Tuesday, May 01, 2007

SEAB - SeaBright Insurance Holdings, Inc - analysts are still raising their profit forecasts

SeaBright Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SEAB), which was first presented as a Value pick on Jan 5, is still a Zacks #1 Rank stock (strong buy). The company continues to exceed the Street’s earnings expectations and consensus estimates are still trending higher. Earnings per share are expected to grow 15% over the next 3-5 years. SEAB has a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, compared to 4.5 for the market.

Full Analysis

SeaBright Insurance Holdings, Inc. is a leader in providing quality niche specialty workers' compensation products and services to maritime employers, organized employers requiring collectively bargained workers' compensation insurance, construction contractors and other selected employer segments.

When SEAB was first featured as a Value pick on Jan 5, the company proudly wore the crown of a Zacks #1 Rank stock (strong buy). Since the company continues to beat the Street’s earnings expectations (has surprised to the upside two additional times since its debut), coupled with the fact that analysts are still raising their profit forecasts, SEAB still maintains the coveted ranking.

On Apr 24, SEAB posted first-quarter profits of $10.1 million, or 48 cents per share, compared to $6.0 million, or 31 cents per share in the prior-year period. With analysts calling for 42 cents per share, the company posted a solid 14.3% earnings surprise. SEAB has now exceeded expectations for the past four quarters by an average margin of 17.9%. Revenues increased 13.9% to $54.9 million from $48.2 million in the first quarter of 2006. Moreover, net premiums earned jumped 10.5% to $48.6 million.

Chairman, President and CEO John Pasqualetto stated, "Our first quarter demonstrates a strong start for 2007. It reflects continued positive top-line growth momentum from last year."

> The combined ratio, a measure of profitability for insurance companies, was 78.1% for the quarter, versus 85.7% for the same period in 2006. A ratio less than 100% indicates that the company is turning an underwriting profit, while a ratio greater than 100% indicates one that is paying out more money in claims versus receiving via premiums.

The consensus estimate for this year currently sits at $1.81, a 12-cent improvement when compared to the consensus of 60 days earlier. Estimates for next year have risen by 22 cents to $1.97 over the past two months. Earnings per share are expected to grow 15% over the next 3-5 years. The industry is forecasted to grow at a 14% clip.

SEAB is currently trading at a valuation of 10.3x current fiscal-year estimated earnings and at 9.5x next fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.2x current fiscal-year estimated earnings and at 15.1x next fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, compared to 4.5 for the market.

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WHR - Whirlpool Corp - announced that it will resume its previously authorized $500 million share repurchase program

Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations for 10 consecutive quarters and in 14 out of the past 16. Consensus earnings estimates for this year and next have risen over the past week. The Board of Directors recently declared a 43-cent quarterly dividend and announced that it will resume its previously authorized $500 million share repurchase program. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, compared to 4.6 for the market. It has a PEG ratio of 0.86.

Full Analysis

Whirlpool Corporation manufactures and markets home appliances worldwide. The company’s principal products include laundry appliances, refrigerators and freezers, cooking appliances, dishwashers, room air-conditioning equipment, and mixers and other small household appliances. WHR has more than 70 manufacturing and technology research centers around the world.

When it comes to exceeding analysts’ earnings expectations, WHR’s track record is quite impressive. The company beat the Street’s estimate for 10 consecutive quarters and in 14 out of the past 16. In each of the last five quarters WHR managed to surprise by a double-digit percentage.

On Apr 24, WHR posted first-quarter profits of $1.55 per share. With analysts calling for $1.13, the company easily surpassed the consensus estimate by an impressive 37.2%. Revenues rose 24.0% to $4.39 billion from $3.54 billion in the prior-year period. Excluding last year’s acquisition of Maytag, revenues still experienced a 2% increase.

Chairman and CEO Jeff M. Fettig stated, "Our first-quarter results reflect solid performance from our global businesses and continued strong consumer preference for our brand innovations."

Since WHR released its first-quarter results, analysts have grown increasingly optimistic about the company’s future earnings potential. The consensus estimate for this year currently resides at $8.25, marking a 28-cent jump over the past seven days. Two of the four covering analysts upped their estimates. Profit forecasts for next year have risen by an even larger margin—61 cents to $10.28 over the past week. Upward revisions were submitted by two of the three covering analysts. Earnings per share are projected to grow 15% over the next 3-5 years.

On Apr 17, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 43 cents per common share of stock. The dividend is payable on Jun 15 to shareholders of record as of May 18. WHR has a current dividend yield of 1.62%. Moreover, the company announced that it will resume its previously authorized $500 million share repurchase program starting in the second quarter. The buyback program was put on hold while the company worked through its Maytag acquisition, opting to pay down the $800 million debt that came along with the purchase.

WHR is currently trading at a valuation of 12.9x current fiscal-year estimated earnings and at 10.4x next fiscal-year estimated earnings. The market, as represented by the S&P 500, is trading at a valuation of 16.1x current fiscal-year estimated earnings and at 15.1x next fiscal-year estimated earnings. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, compared to 4.6 for the market. It has a PEG ratio of 0.86.

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JCI - Johnson Controls, Inc - met or beat estimates in 15 out of the past 16 quarters

Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI), which was first featured as a Growth and Income stock on Jun 23, 2006, has returned over 27%. JCI exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in six out of the past seven quarters. After posting solid second-quarter fiscal 2007 results, the company raised its full-year profit and revenue guidance. Consensus estimates are on the rise for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. JCI has a current dividend yield of 1.3% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.6%.

Full Analysis

Johnson Controls, Inc. provides innovative automotive interiors that help make driving more comfortable, safe and enjoyable. For buildings, it offers products and services that optimize energy use and improve comfort and security. The company also provides batteries for automobiles and hybrid electric vehicles, along with systems engineering and service expertise.

JCI was last presented a Growth and Income stock on Jun 23, 2006. In the time that has elapsed since its debut, the stock has returned over 27%. Furthermore, the company’s Zacks Rank has improved from a #2 (buy) to a #1 (strong buy).

JCI topped analysts’ earnings expectations in six out of the past seven quarters. Moreover, the company met or beat estimates in 15 out of the past 16 quarters. Earnings per share grew 12.5% over the past 3-5 years.

On Apr 20, JCI reported second-quarter fiscal 2007 profits of $1.12 per share. Analysts were calling for earnings per share of $1.05. The result marked a 34.9% year-over-year improvement for the company. Revenues jumped to $8.49 billion from $8.17 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2006.

Chairman and CEO John M. Barth stated, "We are pleased with our performance in the second quarter, which extends our track record for consistent, profitable growth. Our results also demonstrate how diversification helps us withstand short-term downturns in any single business or region."

For the first half of the year, profits rose 18.2% to $390 million, compared to $330 million during the same period last year. Revenues came in at $16.7 billion from $15.7 billion. JCI increased revenues and grew profits for the past nine years.

Citing a lower expected tax rate and improved cost controls, JCI raised its full-year earnings and revenue guidance. The company now expects profits between $6.25 and $6.30 per share, versus its previous outlook which called for $6.00 per share. Revenues are now projected at $34.5 billion from $34 billion.

Analysts responded to the company’s improved outlook by adjusting their estimates upward. Consensus estimates for this year currently sit at $6.25, and represent a 20-cent improvement when compared to the consensus a week prior. 10 of the 11 covering analysts submitted upward revisions. Profit forecasts for next year have risen 26 cents to $7.40, with 11 of the 15 covering analysts upping their estimates. Earnings per share are projected to grow 12% over the next 3-5 years, with the industry expected to grow by 10%.

JCI has a current dividend yield of 1.3% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.6%. Its return on equity nearly doubles that of the industry average—15% compared to 8%.

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ASD - American Standard Companies, Inc - Upward revisions were submitted by all 13 covering analysts

American Standard Companies, Inc. (ASD), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, recently reported solid first-quarter results. As a result, the company raised its full-year profit guidance. Analysts responded to ASD’s bullish outlook by upping their earnings forecasts. On Feb 2, the company announced that it will split its three businesses, enabling it to focus on its biggest business—air-conditioning systems and services. ASD is currently yielding 1.3%, with a five-year average dividend yield of 0.59%.

Full Analysis

American Standard Companies, Inc. manufactures and sells air conditioning systems (under the Trane and American Standard brands), bath and kitchen products (under such brands as American Standard and Ideal Standard), and vehicle control systems (under the WABCO name) worldwide. ASD has manufacturing operations in 28 countries.

On Apr 19, ASD reported first-quarter profits of 53 cents per share. The result beat analysts’ expectations by four cents and represented a 23.3% year-over-year improvement for the company. Revenues jumped 11.9% to $2.17 billion from $1.94 billion in the prior-year period. The revenue figure excludes the bath and kitchen division, which it intends to sell by early Fall. As a result, the segment is now classified as a discontinued operation.

On Feb 2, ASD announced that it will split its three businesses, enabling it to focus on its biggest business—air-conditioning systems and services. The company will be renamed Trane, after its signature brand of air conditioning systems. While ASD plans to sell its bath and kitchen division, the vehicle-control-systems business will be spun into a publicly traded company to be called WABCO.

Chairman and CEO Fred Poses stated, "We had a very strong first quarter. Air Conditioning Systems and Services had excellent results, driven by strong sales of commercial equipment and services. For the rest of the year, we see continued strength in global commercial air conditioning that should allow us to more than offset expected softness in residential markets."

Citing the current market and business outlook, ASD raised its full-year earnings guidance. The company now expects profits between $3.63 and $3.73 on a GAAP basis and between $3.30 and $3.40 on an adjusted basis. Previously, ASD projected profits between $3.15 and $3.25 per share on both a GAAP and adjusted basis.

Based on the company’s bullish guidance, analysts’ optimism has grown pertaining to ASD’s future earnings potential. The consensus estimate for this year currently sits at $3.36, representing a 17-cent jump over the past 30 days. Upward revisions were submitted by all 13 covering analysts. Profit forecasts for next year have risen by an even larger magnitude—19 cents to $3.85 over the past month, with 10 out of the 12 covering analysts upping their projections. Earnings per share are projected to grow 12.4% over the next 3-5 years.

On Feb 1, the Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 18 cents per share. ASD is currently yielding 1.3%, with a five-year average dividend yield of 0.59%. The company has a return on equity of 59%, compared to 16% for the industry average.

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ISRG - Intuitive Surgical, Inc - Total revenue increased year-over-year to $114.2 million from $77.3 million

Intuitive Surgical is a company on the cutting edge with very little competition. The company has comfortably exceeded earnings forecasts in 12 straight quarters. Yearly growth has been in the triple digits for several of these quarters. Seven analysts have raised their numbers for this year. Over the past week, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $2.77 per share.

Full Analysis

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) designs, manufactures, and markets the da Vinci Surgical System, which is an advanced robot-assisted surgical system that the company believes represents a new generation in surgery. The da Vinci Surgical System consists of a surgeon's console, a patient-side cart, and a high performance vision system.

The product line also includes proprietary wristed instruments and surgical accessories. The da Vinci Surgical System translates the surgeon s natural hand movements on instrument controls at a console into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient through small puncture incisions, or ports.

The company believes that the da Vinci Surgical System is the only commercially available technology that can provide the surgeon with the intuitive control, range of motion, fine tissue manipulation capability, and 3-D visualization characteristic of open surgery, while simultaneously allowing the surgeons to work through the small ports of minimally invasive surgery, or MIS.

Earnings are growing by double digits due to strong sales growth and improving gross margins. The company has a razor/razor blade business model. After the initial sale of the da Vinci Surgical System into customer accounts, Intuitive generates recurring revenue as customers use the da Vinci Surgical System to perform surgery and, in the process, buy and consume instruments and accessory products. Intuitive generates additional recurring revenue from system service and customer training.

Higher sales are being driven by increased da Vinci Surgical System sales and continued growth in recurring revenue. Instrument and accessory revenue growth is being driven by a larger installed base of systems and increased system usage. Adoption of da Vinci Surgery continues across all targeted procedures. In addition to leveraging manufacturing overhead costs across higher production volume, lower product material costs are expected to drive improvements to product gross margin starting in the second quarter 2007.

The company operates in a market with no direct competition. In June 2003, Intuitive acquired its only direct competitor, Computer Motion. Other companies are years away from introducing a competing product. For the most part, the company competes with established and emerging treatment options in both disease management and reconstructive medical procedures.

On April 19, 2007, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. reported first quarter results. Total revenue increased year-over-year to $114.2 million from $77.3 million. Higher sales were driven by increased da Vinci Surgical System sales and continued growth in recurring revenue. System revenue increased year-over-year to $56.1 million from $42.4 million. Intuitive sold 44 systems during the first quarter 2007, compared to 50 in the fourth quarter 2006 and 35 in the year ago quarter.

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EBAY - eBay Inc - may buy up to an additional $2.0 billion of stock through January 2009 under its stock repurchase program

eBay Inc. (EBAY) remains focused on expanding its global presence, particularly in Asia. Going forward, eBay’s International segment should continue to drive earnings growth at levels that exceed the industry average.

Full Analysis

eBay is one of the world's largest online trading communities. The company creates a powerful marketplace for the sale of goods and services by a passionate community of individuals and small businesses. It operates in three segments: Marketplaces, Payments and Communications. eBay enables trade on a local, national and international basis with local sites in numerous markets in the U.S. and country-specific sites in the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Japan, Korea and Australia.

On Apr 18, this Zacks #1 Rank stock reported first-quarter earnings of 27 cents per share, up from 24 cents in the prior-year quarter and one cent above expectations. Driving the earnings growth, revenues increased by 27% to $1.77 billion. Also, registered users increased 21% to 233 million. Throughout the quarter, eBay purchased approximately $333 million of its common stock and may buy up to an additional $2.0 billion of stock through January 2009 under its stock repurchase program.

eBay’s business model, which requires no inventory and little capital investment, continues to produce impressive growth and solid profit margins. The company’s continued growth has allowed eBay to expand into new areas, such as payment services (PayPal), foreign markets, communications (Skype), or ticket reselling (Stubhub.com). According to CEO Meg Whitman, “If we see acquisitions that strengthen our position in e-commerce, payments or telecommunications, we'll take them, but there's nothing on the horizon this very minute."

The company’s fastest growing segment is its international division, which comprised 50% of total first-quarter revenue. Continued focus on global expansion, particularly Asia, should bode well for this division going forward. eBay recently entered a joint venture with Beijing-based, TOM Online Inc., a wireless Internet company. A new site is expected to launch early this summer and it will be operated entirely by Chinese workers and stored on servers in China.

Overall, eBay’s earnings growth over the last five years has averaged over 46%, well above the industry. Going forward, analysts expect growth of 23% for the next five years. The company’s consistent earnings growth has helped eBay beat the Street’s estimate for six consecutive quarters. In fact, the company hasn’t missed estimates in over two years. As a result of the earnings momentum, analysts recently raised their full-year 2007 estimates by five cents to $1.17.

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